I.
The squares and stadiums have spoken.
Eagle Square, swollen with eight thousand delegates,
a sea of voices affirming the ruling party’s strength,
yet beneath the chants, fissures widen
North against South, factions against factions,
each calculating the arithmetic of succession.
II.
At the Velodrome, the PDP gathers,
three thousand strong, but shadows loom.
The speeches echo with nostalgia,
the promises sound rehearsed,
and defections scatter like dry leaves in harmattan winds.
A party once towering, now diminished,
its grassroots confidence eroded,
its relevance questioned.
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III.
Then Abuja hosts another gathering,
smaller in size, louder in consequence.
Nine senators cross the aisle,
their footsteps resound in the ADC’s hall.
What was once fringe now pulses with ambition,
absorbing coalitions, weaving new alliances,
a whimpering force rising,
reshaping the geometry of Nigeria’s politics.
Convened against INEC directives,
its defiance a gamble,
its legitimacy questioned even as its voice grows louder.
And still, unable to truly cohere,
unable to choose a leader,
its coalition a chorus of discord,
its ambition mocked by its own indecision.
IV.
Labour speaks to restless youth,
its slogans carried on social media currents,
but its leadership falters,
compromised by whispers of co‑option.
NNPP holds Kano like a fortress,
regional strength without national breadth,
its voice loud but limited.
And in Northeastern shadows,
the old PRP stirs,
presenting itself as bait,
waiting to be swallowed whole
by whichever big party hungers for its meagre numbers.
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V.
And so the dance begins.
Defections trading like currency,
alliances negotiated in hushed rooms,
zoning debates rehearsed in every corridor
North or South, rotation or rupture,
who holds the ticket, who yields the ground.
VI.
Another stage, weeks ago, was set by decree:
office holders, ministers, appointees,
commanded to resign by March 31
if they would seek the ballot.
Some obeyed, shedding portfolios for ambition,
others resisted, clinging to power,
testing the President’s will against their own desire.
VII.
In Bauchi, the tension was palpable.
All eyes turned to Muhammad Ali Pate,
a technocrat painted green by loyalty,
his record rich with service —
health reforms that strengthened immunization campaigns,
programs that expanded access to quality care,
initiatives that are unlocking the value chain,
social welfare initiatives that reached the poor,
policies that bore fruit in Bauchi’s soil
and spread across Nigeria’s fields.
VIII.
He could have counted these achievements
as currency to purchase ambition,
he could have resigned,
he could have thrown his hat into the ring.
Yet he did not.
He chose instead to remain,
to stand beside a President who needed him,
to value continuity over contest,
to let loyalty outweigh the fever of permutations.
IX.
In a season when ambition was the anthem,
his restraint became its own declaration.
Green not only as loyalty,
but as renewal,
a symbol of service that endures
amid the restless tides of partisan politics.
X.
Governance now pauses,
as politics takes the stage.
Inflation rises, insecurity lingers,
but the actors rehearse for 2027,
their eyes fixed on permutations,
their ears deaf to the cries of the street.
Most of the opposition offer no better plan
than unseating the President,
Who, despite constraints,
renews hope and steadies the economy’s course.
XI.
Nigeria waits,
a nation suspended between promise and fatigue,
watching the permutations climb higher,
like tides against fragile walls.
The Kaduna cabal mutters in corridors,
their angst a reminder of northern rivalries,
their discontent woven into the larger struggle,
a counterweight to loyalty,
a shadow against renewal.
The people ask:
will these congresses birth renewal,
or only recycle the familiar?
XII.
And so the permutations run high,
a fever of ambition,
a contest of shadows and structures,
a prelude to the reckoning of 2027.
Favour Christian is a communications specialist and analyst.
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