Jollof Index: Food crisis worsens in Nigeria, Ghana

Acute hunger and the chronic inability to access food remain a critical challenge in West and Central Africa, with over 40 million people struggling to feed themselves during the 2024 post-harvest season, a new report by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence research firm has shown.

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The report highlights a deepening and multifaceted food crisis across West Africa, where persistent price volatility, climate shocks, and economic instability continue to erode food security for millions.

Published on Wednesday, the Jollof Index examines price changes in the context of Nigeria’s economic rebasing and the financial pressures that often accompany the start of a new year.

Through the lens of jollof rice, the Index sheds light on food security and resilience in Nigeria and Ghana.

The quarterly report tracks the cost of preparing jollof rice, a staple dish, and uses it to indicate food price fluctuations in Nigeria.

Covering 15 markets across Nigeria and Ghana, the Index highlights the evolving impact of economic shifts on food affordability.

The Nigerian index

The chart compares the cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice for a family of five across 13 markets from September 2024 and March 2025. Despite temporary stability in some areas during late 2024, the report noted that food prices surged in most markets by early 2025.

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In Nigeria, the national average cost of preparing jollof rice surged by 19 per cent, increasing from N21,300 in September to N25,486 in March. This, according to the report, highlights worsening food inflation and its deepening impact on household nutrition and spending.

The North-east and South-south regions, particularly markets like Bauchi and Port Harcourt, experienced the sharpest increases, exacerbating food insecurity for vulnerable populations.

But this increase was not consistent throughout the period, as the national average initially rose from October 2024, slightly decreased in January and February, and then resumed its upward trend in March 2025.

The report also observed increases in the prices of key ingredients such as pepper, onions, turkey, beef, and rice, while other items have remained at persistently high prices.

“Protein, in particular, remains a major contributor to the overall cost, with turkey now costing between N8,000 and N10,500 per kilo, a substantial increase from the N1,500 to N1,700 it cost in 2016.”

According to the researchers, several factors have contributed to these cost fluctuations.

“The ongoing conflict in the country’s food-producing regions has disrupted supply chains, while high transportation and energy costs have further driven up prices,” the report said.

“For instance, petrol prices have remained elevated, and electricity tariffs for Band A users have increased, adding to household financial strain. Insecurity continues to be a pressing concern, with incidents such as the killing of farmers in Benue, Borno and Plateau States disrupting agricultural activities and limiting the local food supply.”

Ghana Jollof Index

Meanwhile, Ghana’s food prices remained volatile, with the cost of jollof rice consistently higher than Nigeria’s, driven by currency depreciation and reliance on imported inputs.

Between October 2024 and March 2025, SBM Intelligence observed a fluctuating yet consistently high cost of preparing jollof rice in Ghanaian households, following a sharp increase in the previous quarter. “This pattern indicates ongoing volatility driven by underlying inflationary pressures, with a brief respite in early 2025,” the report said.

Month-on-month changes indicate a 1.8 per cent increase from September to October, followed by a 0.9 per cent decrease in November, a 1.4 per cent increase in January, a significant 6.5 per cent decline in February, and a 4.1 per cent increase in March.

“The significant dip in February suggests a temporary easing of inflationary forces, but the subsequent rise in March implies that core inflation and supply-side constraints are still impacting household food budgets. Key drivers of cost included vegetable oil, turkey (1kg), and rice,” the report said.

“While beef prices remained relatively stable, the cost of seasoning cubes, rice, and onions increased steadily. Despite the ongoing efforts of the Ghanaian government through Phase II of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) programme, the persistent cost of preparing jollof rice highlights the challenges of policy interventions amid broader macroeconomic instability.”

Several factors continue to influence these price fluctuations, including the cost of core ingredients like vegetable oil, rice, and turkey, all of which saw consistent increases before moderating slightly. “For example, vegetable oil peaked at GHS120 in January before dropping to GHS95–110 in February and March. The rise in rice prices from GHS13–15 in September to GHS25–32 by March significantly contributed to the overall cost hike. While prices for tomatoes, onions, and seasoning cubes remained relatively stable, they offered limited relief against the impact of rising protein and oil prices.”

The report added that a change of government and any early policy shifts by the John Mahama administration may have influenced these trends. However, the data suggests that entrenched factors like depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar and logistical expenses continue to exert significant pressure.

Nigeria and Ghana

Nigeria and Ghana face similar challenges, including high inflation and threats to agricultural production. In early 2025, inflation reached 24.23 per cent in Nigeria and 22.4 per cent in Ghana.

Nigeria also grapples with the devastating impacts of banditry and climate-related events, which disrupt farming and drive up prices, particularly for locally sourced food.

In Ghana, the cost of preparing jollof rice has been increasingly volatile, influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, currency fluctuations, and the varying prices of imported ingredients.

The report compares the cost of preparing jollof rice for a family of five in Nigeria and Ghana, expressed in US dollars. In Nigeria, the price is calculated using both the official exchange rate and the black market rate, while in Ghana, only the official exchange rate is used.

In both countries, the cost of preparing jollof rice – a key indicator of food prices – reveals the challenging economic climates. The report acknowledged that regional disparity in food costs is significant.

Ghana’s food prices remain substantially higher than Nigeria’s, with the preparation of jollof rice costing approximately 78.7 per cent more in Ghana than in Nigeria, based on official exchange rates. The average cost of preparing jollof rice in Ghana is $27.55, while in Nigeria it is $15.42.

Across both countries, several factors contribute to the high cost of food.

In Nigeria, insecurity is a major issue, with banditry, violence, and the displacement of farmers disrupting agricultural production and driving up prices for local staples, the report stated.

In addition, researchers said logistical challenges, including high fuel prices and poor road conditions, further increase the cost of transporting goods to market. “For example, the price of petrol has remained high, fluctuating from around N1,000 in October 2024 to N970 in March 2025, which raises transportation and food storage costs.”

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While short-term measures like Nigeria’s subsidised rice scheme and Ghana’s Planting for Food and Jobs initiative provide some relief, their reach remains inadequate. In Nigeria, traders have also faced accusations of price gouging, further complicating efforts to stabilise costs. This situation leaves households relying on coping mechanisms such as reducing meal sizes and bulk purchasing to manage expenses, the report said.

In response to these economic pressures, households are adapting by seeking cheaper food alternatives and implementing strategies like bulk purchasing to alleviate the impact of rising costs, the report said.

Ultimately, the report concluded that addressing food inflation in both Nigeria and Ghana requires addressing issues such as currency depreciation, reliance on imports, insecurity in farming regions, and logistical bottlenecks. disparity in food costs between the two countries.

“The time for piecemeal solutions is over. Policymakers, regional bodies, and international partners must act decisively to transform West Africa’s food systems, ensuring long-term sustainability and sovereignty. Their work must include a focus on bolstering food sovereignty, stabilising currencies, and strengthening supply chains.

“The time for decisive action is now; failure to act risks condemning an estimated 52.7 million people to acute hunger by mid-2025. To address this crisis, immediate steps should include scaling up targeted food aid and enforcing measures against price-fixing cartels. Long-term solutions require mechanising farming practices, resolving conflicts that disrupt agricultural production, land reform and establishing regional food reserves.

“The Jollof Index serves as both a warning and a call to action: the region’s future depends on its ability to feed its people today.”