ANALYSIS: Chad’s struggle for democracy is far from over

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Chad emerged from its political transition in January following presidential and parliamentary elections. The country underwent regime change in 2021 when Mahamat Déby took office after the death of his father and long-time president.

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The election results saw the ruling party, the Mouvement Patriotique du Salut (MPS), and the transition , Mr Déby, dominate the political scene. This was unsurprising given that the MPS controlled the process from start to finish, and most of the opposition boycotted and contested the polls.

Despite the electoral system’s flaws, the MPS has used its election win to legitimise its resistance to dialogue with the political opposition. Since January, the crackdown on civic space has been reinforced by a campaign of legal pressure on all dissenting voices, including the media, the political opposition and civil society.

These tactics are reminiscent of the previous regime. Although he came to power promising democratisation, the late former president Idriss Déby Itno’s administration was characterised by the dominance of his family and political circles. Over three decades, his reign undermined the foundations of democracy, triggering rebellions, deadly confrontations and weakening national cohesion and stability.

In 2021, his son took charge of a fragmented and unstable country. The transition promised dialogue, reconciliation, inclusion and building a strong nation. But protests, friction and bloody repression cast doubt on the authenticity of the transition agenda.

The legitimisation of Mr Déby and his party through controlled elections reinforces the trend under his father of a single camp dominating public life. In one year of rule, the MPS system has gradually strengthened its grip on Chadian politics.

The judiciary is politicised, and dissenting voices are silenced through arrests and trials widely regarded as biased. Independent media, opposition parties and civil society are also being targeted. Journalists are threatened and arrested while doing their job, with six detained for several months since January.

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In February, the head of an online media outlet was arrested for publishing an article on a financial scandal. In March, four journalists were detained on charges of ‘intelligence with agents of a foreign power’ – referring to the Russian group Wagner. Their lawyers deny the accusations and believe the trial represents the weaponisation of the justice system to restrict press freedom. After five months in jail, the journalists were acquitted.

Pressure on the media remains constant. In June, N’Djamena’s public prosecutor threatened imprisonment for journalists and human rights organisations who visited a conflict scene in the south of the country.

The judicial system is also being used against prominent MPS opponents, such as Succès Masra, leader of the Les Transformateurs’ party and former prime minister, who was arrested on 16 May. He is currently languishing in prison, accused of instigating a conflict in May 2025 despite evidence deemed fallacious by his defence team and much of the public.

Constant pressure is exerted on opposition parties and their leaders, such as the opposition collective Groupe de concertation des acteurs politiques. Tactics involve intimidation, surveillance and the poaching of activists.

The Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralisation has cracked down on four civil society organisations, banning them from all activities nationwide. Demonstrations and public protests remain prohibited unless authorised by the ministry. But for over two years, all applications have been systematically rejected.

Meanwhile, Chad lacks real political alternatives. In the National Assembly, 124 of 188 members (66%) belong to the ruling party. The remaining seats are split between parties allied to the MPS, undercutting any chance of real debate in Parliament.

Similarly, 44 of the Senate’s 46 elected representatives are MPS members. The constitution allows the president to appoint another 23 senators, all of whom are part of Déby’s inner circle. The Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament are almost all under the MPS banner, raising fears of a drift to de facto one-party rule.

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Chad’s precarious democratic project is in danger. Less than a year after returning to constitutional order, the country is steadily taking an authoritarian turn, returning to conditions that weakened national cohesion and fuelled instability under the previous regime.

To take the political dialogue forward, former transitional prime minister Saleh Kebzabo has been appointed National Mediator between the government and the opposition. He should advocate for the protection of citizens rather than their harassment and arbitrary arrest, and for the independence of the judiciary to be respected.

At the regional level, the Economic Community of Central African States needs to re-engage with the Chad issue via its chosen mediator, Democratic Republic of the Congo President Félix Tshisekedi. His mediation previously facilitated the Kinshasa Agreement, which allowed the exiled Les Transformateurs party to return to the country and contest the presidential election.

Considering that the domestic political and governance challenges Mr Tshisekedi faces may hinder his legitimacy, other international actors, including the African Union through its Peace and Security Council, must also support the dialogue efforts.

Remadji Hoinathy, Senior Researcher, Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin, Institute for Security Studies (ISS)

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).