As the countdown to the 2027 elections reached 100 days this week Tuesday, Joash Amupitan, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), called a press conference to brief the Nation on their preparedness for the rapidly approaching polls. His big story was that the commission will deploy artificial intelligence (AI) tools for result verification and to strengthen cybersecurity ahead of the 2027 elections. He announced the establishment of a dedicated AI division within its information and communication technology (ICT) department which will enable automated AI auditing tools that are integrated into the commission’s result verification process under a five-pillar AI governance framework. He added that the use of AI would be subjected to mandatory human oversight and that the commission is working with international technology leaders and partners to integrate AI-driven anomaly detection tools into its systems. He said the tools would be used to monitor database traffic and protect the commission’s systems against cyber intrusions and unauthorised alterations. Given current universal concerns over AI enabled abuses, I doubt that his words were very reassuring given the trust deficit Nigerians already have about INEC. Everything else he said was about their excellent state of preparedness for the elections.
There have been widespread concerns on Professor Amupitan’s political neutrality and the onus is on him to prove his credibility. As elections in the Fourth Republic roll by, Nigerians have become increasingly concerned about the decline of the electoral system as an institution that could guarantee the rights of citizens to freely choose those who exercise power on their behalf. Since assuming office, the new Chairman of INEC has expressed commitment and readiness to rewrite Nigeria’s electoral history by ensuring the integrity of the 2027 elections surpasses previous elections. I definitely hope and pray that he is truthful.
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The legitimacy of elections is derived from the existence of a level playing ground for competition and contestation. Where competition is eliminated or restricted, elections lose their democratic ingredient. One of the most profound threats to the 2027 elections is the systematic erosion of political competition through induced defections from political parties and the incremental decimation of opposition parties. This distortion of the political landscape could disincentivise public participation in the 2027 elections, as voters will have limited political choices. Constricting the political space and the gradual descent towards a one-party state threaten Nigeria’s democratic trajectory ahead of the 2027 elections. When political pluralism is overtly or covertly removed from electoral politics, authoritarianism creeps in, and it diminishes the legitimacy of electoral outcomes. My greatest fear for the 2027 elections is the growing concern of Nigerians that their votes may not count. The fear is that three major institutions: security agencies, INEC, and the judiciary might compromise the electoral process.
The widespread insecurity and escalating tensions in the country is not new but poses directly the question whether insurgency, banditry, communal conflicts, separatist agitations, and organised criminal violence could continue to overstretch Nigeria’s security architecture and create conditions to explain away State complicity in compromising the elections. This expanded geography of insecurity undermines the likelihood of a safe and peaceful environment for elections. INEC may be constrained to organise elections in volatile and ungoverned spaces, while voters in conflict zones may be disenfranchised. Where insecurity impedes the deployment of election personnel, materials, and security assets, the credibility and inclusiveness of the electoral process are fundamentally compromised.
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The increasingly prominent role of the judiciary in determining electoral outcomes is another facet of the problem. If INEC decides to go rogue, it could do a lot of damage. It would be recalled that in 2023 Justice Inyang Okoro led Supreme Court Presidential Petition Panel said that INEC is at liberty to prescribe the mode of collating results during an election and that IReV is not a collation centre and shouldn’t be a reason to invalidate the results of an election. More recently, the Supreme Court has also affirmed the right of INEC to prescribe guidelines that affect political party primaries and membership. We recall that in June 2002, INEC rejected the registration applications of over 24 political associations. It was the Supreme Court that declared its action void and ordered the registration of the associations. That judgment became a precedent that once an association had met the constitutional requirements, INEC was bound to comply with its registration in line with the decision of INEC v. Balarabe Musa (2003) 3 NWLR (Pt. 806). In 2007, INEC arbitrarily disqualified Atiku Abubakar from contesting the 2007 election because he had been indicted by a tribunal, even without conviction. It was still the same Supreme Court that restricted their powers and held that INEC had no power to disqualify a candidate from contesting the election.
Since then, almost all judgments seem to favour the administrative actions of INEC, even when they are a clog in the wheels of democracy. The fear now is that on-going attempts to block major opposition candidates. In his address at the press conference on Tuesday, the INEC Chairman confirmed receipt of the Certified True Copy (CTC) of the Supreme Court judgment on the validity of key provisions of the Electoral Act 2026 following a legal challenge by the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) affirming the constitutionality of some sections of the Electoral Act 2026. The Supreme Court judgment concerns Sections 77(5), 77(6), 77(7) and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2026, which regulate political parties’ membership registers and the nomination of candidates for elective positions.
The court, in a unanimous judgment delivered on 24 September 2026, restored the four provisions after the Court of Appeal had earlier voided them. The court ruled that section 77(5) provides that only members whose names appear on a political party’s membership register submitted to INEC at least 21 days before a primary, congress or convention can participate in the exercise. Section 77(6) requires political parties to use the membership register submitted to INEC for their primaries, congresses and conventions, while Section 77(7) provides that a party that fails to submit its register within the stipulated period cannot field a candidate in an election. Section 84(2) provides that political parties shall nominate candidates for elective positions through direct primaries or consensus. The Supreme Court held that the provisions were consistent with the Nigerian Constitution and consequently restored the judgment of the Federal High Court, which had earlier dismissed the legal challenge to the provisions. INEC now has the tools to mess up opposition candidates if it decides to do so.
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A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.
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