Current trends in West Africa are strongly influenced by global geopolitical transformation. West African countries that have been very closely tied to the apron strings of their neo-colonial masters should rethink their strategies as Western powers decline. The future might hold more promise if they look at the direction of emerging middle powers and the emerging BRICS formation.
This week, I am in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, attending a conference organised by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation on the peace and security landscape in West Africa. The region has been in political turmoil for the past decade, signalling a deterioration of the growing crisis that has affected the zone for decades due to structural problems related to widespread poverty, food insecurity, the climate crisis and insurgency generated by violent extremist jihadi groups. The current phase of the crisis is linked mainly to the rapid collapse of the democratic model that has evolved in the post-1990 era on the impulsion of popular demands and the regional body, ECOWAS.
The coups in Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger and Guinea Bissau posed, in a very direct manner, an existential crisis for ECOWAS as an organisation and its democratic model. The fabled leading regional organisation in Africa confronted a new reality of the acceleration of democratic recession and collapse, with grave consequences for the region. With five out of fifteen members out of step, the fear has been that more might follow quickly. The attempted coup d’état in Benin Republic heightened that fear. Some of the countries involved established the Association of Sahelian States (AES) and engaged on the path of populism as their mobilisation strategy to secure acceptance of their putschists rule, singling out French neo-colonialism as the evil that must be destroyed.
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The crude geopolitics of the United States under Donald Trump is fuelling the divide and the twin concepts of Western imperialism and neo-colonialism are today solid pillars of West Africa’s political lexicon. This situation poses an existential threat to those West African presidents considered to be lackeys of imperialism. Will they survive ongoing political transformation in the region? The time to study possible futures in West Africa’s political transformation has arrived and I look forward to this conference’s contribution in this regard. Nonetheless, this is not the first time that West Africa is confronting dramatic political transformation.
We can illustrate the intensity of global geopolitics with the travails of Air Base 101 in Niamey, Niger Republic. Armed attackers have hit the base three times already this year. In January, Islamic State terrorists attacked and tried to take it over but were repelled. In June, it was the turn of terrorists from Al-Qaida to make their own attempt. Finally, just three weeks ago, rogue soldiers from the Niger army also attacked it in an attempted coup d’état. The Air Base had previously been home to some of the 1,500 French and 1,000 American troops monitoring and controlling Africa from the location, which was also linked to the largest American drone base on the continent. Uranium ore mined by France and seized by the Niger government is also stored there and these imperialist forces are mobilising all their political resources to regain a foothold, with the promotion of insecurity as an instrument.
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West Africa has a history of resilience to the risks and threats it has been confronting. The people fought for and obtained the return of democracy in the early 1990s in response to the debilitating authoritarianism and conflicts of the 1970s and 1980s. Democracy returned with new constitutions, new political parties and regular elections. The principal question posed in the 1990s was who would be the beneficiaries of this return of democracy? The arena where this question was posed was the national conference that was convened in many of the countries in the region. The diagnoses were that for virtually all the countries in the region, the social contract established during the nationalist struggle between the states and citizens had been broken. The post-independence one-party and military regimes failed to improve the lives and livelihoods of the people. Political frustration developed throughout West Africa when it became clear that the new democratic regimes that developed after the national conferences also failed to improve the lives of the people.
The core of the crisis in West Africa is poor governance and the realisation by citizens that they are not seeing the dividends of democracy due to corruption by the political class. The people of West Africa expect their governments to provide for their security and welfare, and that is the key challenge that has to be addressed. State capacity to provide services to the people must improve steadily to meet the expectations of the people.
The crisis of democracy in the region is linked to its political sociology. West African leaders bear little resemblance to the people they govern. Citizens have repeatedly demonstrated their keen interest, and indeed their determination to participate in democratic politics. Successive generations of leaders have however always demonstrated deep disrespect for the practice of a level playing ground for democratic politics and have worked assiduously to dismantle democratic rules and processes. The ongoing battle in the region is between efforts at state capture by the political class and citizen’s attempts to entrench an inclusive democratic culture. This is the paradox that has to be resolved to return the agenda of inclusive democratic politics to the region. Meanwhile, the significant trend today is that of the return of militarism.
Violent extremism has emerged as one of the most important political elements characterising West Africa and the Sahel. It came from a totally different ideological perspective that questioned the legitimacy of democracy itself. A number of violent extremist organisations profoundly impact the Sahel and West Africa. For the past two decades, they have demonstrated high capacity to impact on the security and political situation in the zone, their ambitions have grown, and their geographical reach has been extended throughout the region. Terrorism has devastated lives and livelihoods, disrupting local economies, health and education services.
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The core of the crisis in West Africa is poor governance and the realisation by citizens that they are not seeing the dividends of democracy due to corruption by the political class. The people of West Africa expect their governments to provide for their security and welfare, and that is the key challenge that has to be addressed. State capacity to provide services to the people must improve steadily to meet the expectations of the people. Militarism cannot sustain peace and development in West Africa. Authoritarianism worsens corruption, promotes arbitrary rule, stifles production and innovation, and negates development. The military regimes in the Sahel have failed to deliver on their promise of ending terrorism and growing evidence suggests that terrorism has worsened since the return of coups. Democratic renewal remains the sole pathway to a peaceful and prosperous future.
Democracy did not fail in West Africa, it was sabotaged. Many democratically elected leaders in the region subverted the level playing ground for free and fair elections, compromised the judiciary and the rule of law, blocked opposition parties, and gave the impression that the problem was democracy, rather than their own errant behaviour.
The impression that military rule could create the dynamics to enable the people of West Africa ensure national control of their resources and reverse neo-colonial systems is strong within youth circles but has no empirical basis. Nonetheless, the argument that the people of West Africa must work together to dismantle neo-colonialism is correct. All the countries in the region should embrace the idea of launching national debates and developing strategies for the full control of their resources.
The real force behind democratic struggles and successes in West Africa is the civil society. Trade unions, student unions, non-governmental organisations, women’s organisations, cultural unions, religious organisations and the private mass media have all played decisive roles in influencing public opinion, making demands for political liberalisation and the protection of human rights, while sustaining these demands by organising strikes, demonstrations and protests.
At the same time, West Africa should strive to save its regional organisation from collapse. ECOWAS has laid an excellent basis for building democratic resilience in its Vision 2050 and the document should be the framework for improving on its strengths, addressing weaknesses, seeking opportunities for progress, and combating threats. ECOWAS should remain steadfast in maintaining its constitutional convergence principles and zero-tolerance to change of government through non-constitutional means. The organisation should be more involved in promoting democracy at the level of its member countries. It should however openly acknowledge that the erosion of democratic practices observed in recent years have emanated from the unfortunate actions of some its leadership in the Authority of Heads of State, and take proactive measures in changing such practices.
Current trends in West Africa are strongly influenced by global geopolitical transformation. West African countries that have been very closely tied to the apron strings of their neo-colonial masters should rethink their strategies as Western powers decline. The future might hold more promise if they look at the direction of emerging middle powers and the emerging BRICS formation.
The real force behind democratic struggles and successes in West Africa is the civil society. Trade unions, student unions, non-governmental organisations, women’s organisations, cultural unions, religious organisations and the private mass media have all played decisive roles in influencing public opinion, making demands for political liberalisation and the protection of human rights, while sustaining these demands by organising strikes, demonstrations and protests.
Citizens must be active in creating a pathway to a better future for their countries. They must strive to develop their capacity to resist the tendency of incumbent presidents to change the constitution to increase their term limits. Citizens must imbibe the culture that governments must be accountable to them.
A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.
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