More importantly, Haske’s anticipated defection could become a rallying point for politicians and supporters in other parties who are dissatisfied with their own political structures. His camp is already suggesting that the movement could attract supporters from the APC, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Labour Party and other parties.
One of the greatest albatrosses hanging on the neck of political parties in Nigeria is the poor manner in which internal democracy is being given expression to, which appears anything but anchored on popular choice. Thereafter, the emergent discontent is also hardly managed properly, leading to decouplings and political fragmentation. This is a concern transcending many of the political parties in the country, following the earlier congresses and primary elections many conducted.
A case in point now pertains to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Adamawa State, which may be heading for one of its most consequential political unravelling ahead of the 2027 elections, with the possible defection of its frontline members and erstwhile governorship aspirant, Abdulrahman Bashir Haske, said to be on his way to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
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If the move eventually happens, it appears to be more than the defection of a politician from one party to another, as it could expose the depth of dissatisfaction within the Adamawa APC and test the ability of the party to retain supporters who believe they have been sidelined by its internal political arrangements.
Haske’s political appeal seems to extend beyond his personal ambition, as over time he is considered to have built a network of supporters who see him as a viable alternative within the state’s political space. His supporters have consistently argued that he could have secured the APC governorship ticket if the party’s primary process had been allowed to operate freely.
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That perception is important because political defections rarely happen in isolation. When a politician moves with an established structure, loyalists, grassroots mobilisers and influential supporters, the impact can be considerably greater than the movement of an individual.
In the storm of discontent seemingly riddling that state, reports that some of Haske’s supporters have already moved to the APM could affect the momentum of the party, going into the 2027 general elections, particularly with the claim by his close associate, Alhaji Hussaini Ahmadu Har that the movement could become a “political tsunami.”
Of course, political rhetoric should always be treated with caution. Every politician preparing for an election believes his or her movement is bigger than it may actually be. The real test will come when the political structure is mobilised and the strength of the support base becomes measurable.
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But the APC should not dismiss the development, especially with the similar pattern of discontent across many of the states in which it is the ruling party.
Adamawa is not a state where political victories can simply be assumed. The state has a history of competitive elections, shifting alliances and influential political personalities. A strong aspirant leaving the APC with a sizeable support base could certainly complicate the party’s calculations for 2027.
More importantly, Haske’s anticipated defection could become a rallying point for politicians and supporters in other parties who are dissatisfied with their own political structures. His camp is already suggesting that the movement could attract supporters from the APC, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Labour Party and other parties.
If that happens, the APM could suddenly become a platform worth watching in Adamawa.
The bigger question, however, as alluded to above, is why politicians such as Haske would feel compelled to look outside the APC in the first place.
Political parties survive not only by winning elections but also by managing ambition. Where multiple politicians aspire to the same position, the party’s ability to conduct a transparent and credible internal process becomes crucial. A process perceived as predetermined can create resentment that eventually becomes difficult to contain.
For the APC, therefore, Haske’s situation should be viewed as a warning rather than merely a defection story.
The party must ask itself whether its internal structures are sufficiently inclusive to accommodate ambitious politicians and their supporters. It must also consider whether pushing influential aspirants away could ultimately weaken its electoral prospects.
For Haske, meanwhile, moving to the APM will not automatically guarantee victory. Building a political structure outside a major party comes with its own challenges, including funding, organisation, visibility and the ability to translate personal popularity into votes.
His supporters may describe the movement as a “train of victory,” but elections are ultimately decided at the polling units, not on social media.
That is why the coming months will be particularly important.
If Haske succeeds in taking a substantial political structure from the APC to the APM, the move could reshape the opposition landscape in Adamawa and force the major parties to reconsider their strategies for 2027.
But if the anticipated mass defection fails to materialise, the episode could instead expose the limits of personality-driven political movements.
Either way, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Haske’s political future is no longer merely an internal APC matter. His next move could have consequences for the wider contest for political power in Adamawa State.
And for the APC, the real danger may not be Haske’s departure itself, but the possibility that many of those who leave with him may not be coming back. This brings into bold relief the Achilles heel of the democratic culture in Nigeria, in which popular choice is increasingly being sacrificed to the inclinations of dominant and domineering tendencies within political parties, which also lack the capacity to manage difference or are simply unbothered.
Jibrin Musa writes from Yola, Adamawa State.
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