Self aggrandisement – in politics and in business? Conspicuous consumption? The moral infirmity that is status competition? You can choose your pick of the poison that afflicts our economy. When, you might be tempted to ask, is “affluenza” enough? The idea behind the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility suggests that it ought to be sated when the additional satisfaction from the consumption of those values that affluenza is defined by equals the cost of obtaining this satisfaction.
The world, today, faces numerous problems. There was that point when Russia threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine, and the world looked the possibility of nuclear war in the face (few liked what they saw). De-escalated that threat might be, but the war’s existential meaning for Europe is too dire for backs to be turned on it. And the Israeli and US misadventure in Iran? Whatever gains the Abraham Accords notched up through improved amity in the Middle East have gone up in mushroom clouds of smoke as Iranian ordnance exploded over countries in the region. The region will fester anew, this time, with the democratisation of improved means of causing human suffering on an extended scale.
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Any lessons for China in its quest someday to eventually unify with Taiwan – forcibly, if necessary? What is increasingly clear is that whatever the colouration of a war involving any of its key economies, the global economy will suffer a lot – such is the nature and extent of economic interdependence, today. That global politics and social cohesion will, consequently, fray gravely under pressure from fraught economies we may take for granted.
All of this, before you add the worry over falling birth rates across the world. At some point, the effects of an ageing population (that sweet spot where lower birth rates intersect with more older people – as science and medicine push the frontiers of the possible forward) will be evident in more pressure on pensions and public finances. Labour shortages (as fewer young people enter the workforce) will constrain economic growth. How will the resulting changes in family structure matter? Two clear upshots are the reduction of pressure on resources, and the possibility of higher investment per child. Without increases in productivity, however, expect humanity to struggle.
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Is it possible that the ongoing revolution in artificial intelligence (AI) might offer a way out of the population transition bind? Depending on who you speak to, closed-loop recursive self-improvement, when AI finally learns how to design, redesign, improve, or upgrade its own architecture is either the road to Nirvana, or to the end of the world as we know it. Before (or between?) either outcomes, AI is likely to design, redesign, improve, or upgrade work and rewards in ways that would leave the world changed forever. There will be losers and gainers. And what about the new technology divide that AI will drive?
The economy continues to flail in search of traction. Far too many young people – a major part of the population – are not in training or at work, raising questions about the viability of current efforts at raising domestic productivity. The incumbent government’s reform drive, radical initially, has sunk into the tepid funk that is partisan politics.
It is fair to believe that developing countries like Nigeria will be worse for it. Sadly, Nigeria faces a daunting in-tray of other weighty and immediate problems. It is hard, even with a two-by-two matrix that has the “likelihood of occurrence” on one side, and “severity of incidence” on the other, to make sense of it all. But clearly our politics, exhausted and gasping for air, is in pressing need of reform and renewal. The opposition, necessary if democracy is to function properly, does not exist. Intra-party activities are more of beatifications and coronations than elections – with the results representing the partialities of party nobs, rather than the wishes of the electorate, or the relevant parts thereof.
The economy continues to flail in search of traction. Far too many young people – a major part of the population – are not in training or at work, raising questions about the viability of current efforts at raising domestic productivity. The incumbent government’s reform drive, radical initially, has sunk into the tepid funk that is partisan politics. Or is it the case that vestiges of dirigisme in public policymaking continues to favour demand-side changes (and the big role it allows governments) over the overhaul of the economy’s supply-side (and the prominence this gives to the private sector and markets)? Whichever way, these tensions show up in two important measures: the rising incidence of poverty and an increase in the economy’s Gini coefficient. Toss escalating incidents of insecurity into the mix and one can almost see the seams of the country’s social fabric fraying.
Set against the global canvas, however, Nigeria’s problems pale into insignificance. This explains why the self-appointed guardians of the global political, social, and economic order go about their more urgent businesses, casting a beady eye our way only when our ructions threaten externalities of a regional vintage.
I doubt, though, that money, or the urge to acquire it (that love that the Bible describes as the “root of all evil”) has this tipping point. Yet, there must be a kill switch for behaviour this self-destructive, or else the road to Harare, Khartoum, or Mogadishu beckons.
Our elected officials, conversely, go about their more urgent business of misruling the country, persuaded that even outcomes as dreadful as Somalia’s and Sudan’s will not fetch retribution that will hurt them personally. Especially, when they have hedged their bets through the acquisition of multiple travel documents from other non-African countries. According to the Yorùbá, “Igí da ẹyẹ fó.” When this particular bough breaks, the cradle will surely fall, but the baby that the Nigerian elite is become knows well to look out for itself.
Self aggrandisement – in politics and in business? Conspicuous consumption? The moral infirmity that is status competition? You can choose your pick of the poison that afflicts our economy. When, you might be tempted to ask, is “affluenza” enough? The idea behind the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility suggests that it ought to be sated when the additional satisfaction from the consumption of those values that affluenza is defined by equals the cost of obtaining this satisfaction.
I doubt, though, that money, or the urge to acquire it (that love that the Bible describes as the “root of all evil”) has this tipping point. Yet, there must be a kill switch for behaviour this self-destructive, or else the road to Harare, Khartoum, or Mogadishu beckons.
Uddin Ifeanyi, a journalist manqué and retired civil servant, can be reached @IfeanyiUddin.
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