President Tinubu’s administration has shown uncommon political will in administering the necessary economic reforms. The resulting macroeconomic stability is a crucial first step. However, the critical test is whether the government can convert these macro-level gains into micro-level realities. The current trajectory, where the populace bears the brunt of the pain without seeing tangible benefits, is unsustainable. To succeed, the government must pivot from being a reformer to a builder…
This article analyses the economic policies of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration from May 2023 to February 2026. It assesses the impacts of the “Tinubunomics” agenda — a set of orthodox reforms aimed at correcting deep structural distortions — and proposes mitigation strategies. While the policies have yielded significant macroeconomic dividends, they have also inflicted severe short-term hardships, exposing critical gaps in implementation and social protection.
Introduction: The Case for “Economic Surgery”
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Upon assuming office in May 2023, President Tinubu inherited an economy on the brink. Public debt stood at ₦87.4 trillion, with debt servicing consuming over 100 per cent of government revenue. The costly fuel subsidy drained an estimated $10 billion in 2022, and a distorted foreign exchange (FX) system deterred investment. This precarious situation necessitated a radical policy shift: the immediate removal of the fuel subsidy, unification of FX windows, and a return to orthodox monetary policy.
Positive Impacts: The Macroeconomic Dividend
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The reforms have begun to stabilise the economy and restore credibility.
- Restored Macroeconomic Stability: The most notable achievement is the dramatic easing of inflation. After peaking at 34.8 per cent in December 2024, headline inflation fell to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, with food inflation dropping to single digits (8.8 per cent) for the first time in over a decade. GDP growth has also shown resilience, rising to 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025.
- Strengthened External Accounts and Investor Confidence: FX unification, though turbulent, has stabilised the naira and rebuilt external reserves to between $46 billion and $49 billion — the highest in nearly a decade. This has spurred investor confidence, evidenced by major commitments from Shell and ExxonMobil. The World Bank has lauded Nigeria as a “global reference point” for reform implementation.
- Fiscal and Efficiency Gains: The removal of the fuel subsidy is generating estimated annual savings of $7.5 billion. Combined with deregulation, daily petrol imports fell by 67 per cent between 2024 and April 2025, as local refining began to fill the gap. Oil production has also recovered, at times reaching the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
Negative Impacts: The Human Cost and Implementation Gaps
Despite the positive macro story, the reforms have exacted a heavy toll and exposed significant governance weaknesses.
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- Catastrophic Cost-of-Living Crisis: The fuel subsidy removal triggered a nearly 200 per cent surge in fuel prices, cascading into higher transport and food costs. The naira’s sharp devaluation further fuelled import-driven inflation. The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023, while wages have stagnated, pushing millions deeper into poverty and devastating the urban middle class.
- Devastating Impact on SMEs: The FX reform acted as a “hammer” on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) dependent on imports. Costs exploded, supply chains were disrupted, and the absence of a temporary support window led to widespread closures and job losses.
- Disconnect Between Macro Gains and Micro Realities: This is the most critical failing. There is little visible evidence that the vast savings from subsidy removal are translating into improved public services like healthcare, education, or infrastructure. The savings appear to be absorbed by debt servicing (still consuming about 60 per cent of revenues) and recurrent expenditure, fuelling public perception that the sacrifices of the poor are not yielding tangible benefits.
- Poor Communication and Weak Coordination: Major reforms were often implemented without a clear roadmap or empathetic leadership, allowing misinformation to thrive and eroding trust. Furthermore, while citizens faced austerity, perceived profligate spending by government officials undermined the moral authority of the reform narrative.
Comparative Analysis of Perspectives
The narrative around the reforms is polarised. Government officials and international partners emphasise the macroeconomic turnaround, arguing that the reforms “rescued Nigeria from economic collapse.” In contrast, critics contend that macroeconomic stability is meaningless without accountability, transparency, and visible investment in human development. Civil society and the general populace largely feel the pain without seeing the gain.
Recommendations for Mitigating Negative Impacts
To bridge the gap between macroeconomic stability and the lived reality of Nigerians, the following actions are imperative.
- Aggressively Cushion the Vulnerable and Address the Cost of Living:
- Targeted Social Safety Nets: Move beyond blanket statements to verifiable, digital cash transfers for the most vulnerable, with open beneficiary registers and independent audits.
- Tackle Food Inflation Directly: Accelerate the food security response with short- to long-term actions, and expand the mass transit programme with CNG-powered buses to immediately reduce transport costs.
- SME Support Window: Introduce temporary tax relief or cheap credit for the most exposed SMEs to prevent further closures and job losses.
- Rebuild Trust Through Radical Transparency and Communication:
- National Reform Communication Strategy: Explain reforms in simple terms across all media platforms, with regular presidential and ministerial briefings to update citizens on progress.
- Visible and Immediate Austerity: Lead by example by visibly cutting governance costs, reducing delegations on foreign trips, and publishing monthly audited statements of subsidy savings. Implementing the Oronsaye Report would be a powerful signal.
- Citizen Feedback Loops: Establish digital dashboards showing real-time progress on key projects and economic metrics to allow citizens to track performance.
- Drive Structural Transformation and Job Creation:
- Invest in the Real Economy: Aggressively address infrastructure deficits, particularly power, aiming to increase grid electricity to 10,000MW to boost industrial productivity.
- Functional Industrial Parks: Fast-track Special Economic Zones with reliable power and tax incentives to boost manufacturing in sectors like agro-processing.
- Subnational Performance and Accountability: Introduce performance-based grants for states that meet transparency and service delivery targets.
Conclusion
President Tinubu’s administration has shown uncommon political will in administering the necessary economic reforms. The resulting macroeconomic stability is a crucial first step. However, the critical test is whether the government can convert these macro-level gains into micro-level realities. The current trajectory, where the populace bears the brunt of the pain without seeing tangible benefits, is unsustainable. To succeed, the government must pivot from being a reformer to a builder — aggressively investing in buffers for the poor, communicating with radical transparency, and driving structural changes that create jobs and lower the cost of living. Only then can the “Renewed Hope Agenda” become a lived experience for Nigerians.
Henry O. Igbinomwanhia is a legal practitioner, training and management consultant.
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