From hashtags to hard power: What APC’s momentum says about 2027, By Kayode Oladele

As Nigeria gradually turns its gaze toward 2027, the APC approaches the future not as a party scrambling for cohesion, but as a governing platform steadily expanding its influence. With defections reshaping the political landscape and opposition alliances struggling to convince even their most loyal supporters, the balance of momentum appears to favour continuity.

The 2023 general election marked a rare political high point in Nigeria’s democratic journey. Many young voters rallied around Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, inspired by a promise of frugality, reform, and a break from politics as usual. The “Obidient” movement felt less like a campaign and more like a generational statement: hope crystallised into political action.

However, barely two-and-a-half years later, that moment is steadily losing its grip and appears to have greatly diminished, if not totally disappeared.

This is not rooted in apathy but as a natural consequence of the nature of the emotional support and more importantly, disillusionment. Movements driven primarily by emotion often struggle when confronted with the practical demands of power politics. As expectations collide with reality, enthusiasm gives way to hard questions about direction, consistency, and viability.

One major inflection point has been Obi’s recent defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC). For many of his supporters who believed they were participating in a principled, ideologically distinct project, the move has been jarring. Defections are commonplace in Nigerian politics, but for a base that prided itself on “new politics,” this shift has left many of them disappointed and uncomfortable.

That discomfort has intensified amid growing speculation that Obi may again accept a vice presidential slot in a future coalition. Among many of his youthful supporters, even his major elite supporters, the idea of returning to a subordinate role after being sold as a transformational alternative has sparked open frustration and disillusionment. Online conversations that once brimmed with certainty now carry undertones of hesitation, with some supporters openly questioning their continued loyalty, should such an arrangement materialise.

Compounding this unease is the optics of Obi now operating within the same political space as Atiku Abubakar, with whom he contested the 2019 election as vice presidential candidate. For a movement built on the promise of departure from old alignments, this convergence feels to many like a return to the very political cycles they sought to escape or what some of his loyalists described as akin to one eating his own vomit.

While Obi’s supporters and the opposition grapple with these contradictions, the broader political terrain is shifting decisively in favour of the ruling party.

Across the country, there has been a noticeable wave of defections into the All Progressives Congress (APC). Governors, legislators, and influential political actors from opposition platforms, particularly in places like the South-East region, once considered strongholds of the PDP or Labour Party, are joining the ruling party. These moves are fundamental to the forthcoming elections, as they would reshape electoral maps, consolidate local structures, and reframe political expectations ahead of 2027.

Defections in Nigerian politics often signal more than personal ambition. They also reflect calculations about power, relevance, and sustainability. As opposition figures realign, areas previously regarded as politically “jittery” or resistant are increasingly tilting towards the APC, raising the prospect of overwhelming majorities in regions once thought competitive or iron clad.

At the centre of this consolidation is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. His leadership style, built on coalition-building, political patience, and institutional control, has long shaped Nigeria’s modern political architecture. The Tinubu-led APC has not relied on political rhetorics; it has focused on strengthening party unity, absorbing dissenting blocs, and projecting stability in an era marked by economic and security pressures.

This growing consolidation stands in sharp contrast to the fragmentation visible across opposition ranks, including the opposition’s new coalition, the ADC. While critics debate policy outcomes, few dispute the APC’s organisational depth or its expanding national footprint. In Nigerian politics, structure often outlasts sentiment, and power tends to attract further power.

Notably, even among the youths, political thinking is evolving. Many who were energised by the “Obedient “ movement of 2023 are now asking harder questions about governance capacity, electoral realism, and the likelihood of victory. Passion remains important, but it is increasingly weighed against experience, reach, and institutional strength.

The Obidient movement remains an important chapter in Nigeria’s democratic story. It energised youth participation and reshaped political conversations. However, history suggests that movements, no matter how strong, do not automatically become enduring forces, unless they are anchored by durable structures and clear political direction.

As Nigeria gradually turns its gaze toward 2027, the APC approaches the future not as a party scrambling for cohesion, but as a governing platform steadily expanding its influence. With defections reshaping the political landscape and opposition alliances struggling to convince even their most loyal supporters, the balance of momentum appears to favour continuity.

In Nigerian politics, emotion may ignite movements but organisation, alignment, and power ultimately decide elections. And on those fronts, the Tinubu-led APC continues to set the pace.

Kayode Oladele, a lawyer and former legislator, writes from Abuja.