Set against the broader regional context, the North-West Nigeria strike indicates that the US is taking a closer interest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Last month President Trump hosted the presidents of DRC and Rwanda to sign a peace agreement in Washington. Some observers believe this high degree of interest is related to Washington’s quest for cheap sources of critical minerals.
The attacks through cruise missiles launched from US navy vessels in the Gulf of Guinea at North-West Nigeria on Christmas Day surprised Nigerians, in what at first looked like a unilateral decision. US secretaries of War and State, Peter Hegseth and Marco Rubio, later clarified that this was a joint US-Nigeria effort. A carefully worded Nigerian Foreign Ministry statement followed the strikes hours later, saying the action was “in line with international practice and bilateral understandings.”
The strike follows weeks of concern expressed by the Trump administration about alleged attacks on Christians by Islamic extremists. But Nigerians well know that Islamic extremists have preyed on Muslim communities as much, if not more so than on Christian communities, and the problem is not as acute in North-Western Nigeria as it is in the North-East, a stronghold of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and its rival, Boko Haram. Both the US and Nigerian governments say that camps were hit close to the Niger border. Initial ground reports indicated that the strikes hit criminal elements who have engaged in banditry and kidnapping in Sokoto State, the seat of the influential Caliphate in the North-West region of Nigeria.
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In recent years, Nigeria has struggled to contain sources of instability, ranging from identity-based and ethno-religious conflicts, terrorism deriving from extremist Islamist ideology, banditry and criminality, as well as climate change-derived conflict. Of particular volatility are the North Central, North-East and North-West geopolitical zones of Nigeria.
Opinions are already divided among Nigerians on the attacks and whether the US will help eliminate the extremists and bandits through further continued coordinated attacks. This suggests that Nigeria’s complex internal dynamics may be impacted, and the attacks could serve as an additional driver of domestic strife.
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Already, some influential public figures, mostly concentrated in the North-West, have called for a soft approach in dealing with Boko Haram and the militants. In the wake of the US strikes, Sheikh Gumi, an Islamic cleric, medical doctor and former Army Major, who had previously served as a negotiator with the bandits, has called on the Nigerian government to cut defence ties with the US.
With general elections just two years away, there is already a North vs South narrative, which will be exploited by some politicians and the opposition who feel hard done by the administration of President Bola Tinubu. Time will tell whether this will seriously impact the outcome of the election. Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, will be seeking a second term and with the opposition considerably weakened, it remains to be seen whether they can muster some grand alliance to defeat him.
Prior to the coordinated strikes of Christmas day, the US government had announced a list of nineteen countries, including Nigeria, that would be subject to limitation on entry visas, as well as longer-term residence permits. Prior to the visa ban, President Trump in early November 2025 designated Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’, and warned of an imminent attack on extremists in response to the persecution of Christians in Nigeria.
Northern Nigeria is not as monolithic as many think. Muslims are dominant politically but there is a significant minority Christian population that is united as a bloc, and which supports the president. This support is likely to be consolidated with the US strikes, as it is likely to be read as a response to years of perceived persecution by Muslim extremists and bandits. The US strikes will almost certainly allay the concerns of the Nigerian Christians and will be much welcomed in some quarters.
The symbolism of a Christmas Day strike may however be used against the government by the Muslim community, as it can be interpreted to have religious connotations. However, for the first time in Nigeria’s history, the president and vice president are Muslims, thus making a religious undertone to the attack a hard sell.
Such coordinated military operations may achieve the aim of appeasing a significant constituency in the US and Nigeria, namely evangelical Christians. As the US approaches midterm elections in 2026, preparations are also in full swing in Nigeria for the general elections scheduled for early 2027. In Nigeria, 2026 will be a campaign year and will be critical to election outcomes in 2027.
Prior to the coordinated strikes of Christmas day, the US government had announced a list of nineteen countries, including Nigeria, that would be subject to limitation on entry visas, as well as longer-term residence permits. Prior to the visa ban, President Trump in early November 2025 designated Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’, and warned of an imminent attack on extremists in response to the persecution of Christians in Nigeria.
For students of Nigerian foreign policy, these recent measures elicited a nostalgic reaction, as it recalled when Nigeria and the US last had a public disagreement on a major issue. In 1974, Nigeria, awash with petrodollars and having survived the terrible Biafran Civil War, became a leading voice in the so-called Third World and at the forefront of the fight against apartheid and colonialism.
Basking in its frontline state status, under the military leadership of General Murtala Mohammed, Nigeria declared support for the Communist MPLA in Angola, in open defiance of the US-backed UNITA. Nigeria even rebuffed Henry Kissinger’s several efforts to visit Lagos to explain the US government’s position on Angola, and to try to convince Nigeria to support it.
Based on these new realities, and in an era where there are no longer pretences to the preference for transactional diplomacy, we may be witnessing a new era of muscular economic and defence cooperation between Nigeria and the USA. Massad Boulous, Trump’s envoy for the Middle East and Special Adviser for Africa, is Lebanese-American, but also has Nigerian citizenship. He is an in-law to Donald Trump.
Today, beyond concerns about the persecution of Nigerians, as expressed by the US government as the rationale for military strikes against extremist formations, analysts wonder whether there are other reasons driving the US position.
Nigeria is an oil rich country with significant reserves of approximately 38 billion barrels of crude oil (the second largest in Africa), and 210.54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (the ninth largest holder globally). It also has over two hundred strategic minerals include coal, iron ore, bitumen, limestone, gold, barite and lead/zinc. In addition, the country has significant reserves of critical minerals for the global energy transition, such as lithium, tin, niobium, columbite, and rare earth elements. The Trump administration has made no secret about tying diplomatic and security policy to the pursuit of oil and critical minerals. The recent rendition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from their home, over the US’ intention to gain control of Venezuela’s oil – with the largest reserve in the world, estimated to be about 300 billion barrels – attest to its intentions, undergirded by geopolitics.
Set against the broader regional context, the North-West Nigeria strike indicates that the US is taking a closer interest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Last month President Trump hosted the presidents of DRC and Rwanda to sign a peace agreement in Washington. Some observers believe this high degree of interest is related to Washington’s quest for cheap sources of critical minerals. But others wonder why, if this is the case, Trump decided to sack US ambassadors in a range of Sub-Saharan African states.
Based on these new realities, and in an era where there are no longer pretences to the preference for transactional diplomacy, we may be witnessing a new era of muscular economic and defence cooperation between Nigeria and the USA. Massad Boulous, Trump’s envoy for the Middle East and Special Adviser for Africa, is Lebanese-American, but also has Nigerian citizenship. He is an in-law to Donald Trump. The Boulous family have for decades owned significant business interests in the automobile, heavy machinery, manufacturing and hospitality sectors in Nigeria.
There are widespread reports of ongoing surveillance operations in the northeast of Nigeria. This may signal that more air strikes targeting extremist formations are imminent. The question to ask is what follows the airstrikes? More air strikes or a long-term approach to dealing with insurgency groups across Nigeria?
The mid to long-term effects of this new phase of US-Nigeria relations will have significant impacts on the wider continent, on Nigeria’s domestic political environment, ahead of the 2027 elections, as well as on trade and economic relations.
Babatunde Tolu Afolabi is regional director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Geneva-based private mediation foundation. He is also an Associate Fellow at the Nigerian Institute of International Relations, and is the author of The Politics of Peacemaking in Africa. Non-state Actors’ Role in the Liberian Civil War, published in 2017.
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