We already know how the war against China will end: Beijing will make new friends and spread its influence elsewhere, while Washington will make new enemies… Africa must accept that America First is more than a slogan under Trump. It is where the unfinished experiments of his first term and the promise of chaos during his last campaign meet the street: America Alone.
It’s nearly 20 years since Mark Steyn wrote a non-fiction book, America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It.
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Steyn, a Canadian newspaper columnist, could not have known that the kicker of this book title, which extolled America as the last bastion of civilisation as we know it, would become the metaphor for a wrecking ball.
Steyn thought demographic shifts, cultural decline, and Islam would ruin Western civilisation. The only redeeming grace was American exceptionalism. Nineteen years after his book, America Alone is remembered not for the threats Steyn feared or the grace of American exceptionalism but for an erratic president almost alone in his insanity.
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The Joke Is on Steyn
In less than one month of his second presidency, Donald Trump has declared an imperial intention to seize property outside the US and rename international boundaries. He has hinted at annexing a sovereign country, criminalised migration, and dragged his largest trading partners, including his neighbours, to the negotiation table at gunpoint.
When America Alone is mentioned today, it’s not a defence against threats to Western values or civilisation; it’s simply that Trump’s America First has turned the country into a clear and present danger to the values that built and prospered America and the rest of the world. America is losing its way, alone and aloof, in a brazen insularity that evokes pity and surprise in equal measure, even amongst its harshest critics.
Yet, as Trump danced on the grave of Adam Smith by instigating a trade war that has left the world on edge and global markets in turmoil, the president appears determined to take America beyond pity, surprise, and loneliness. America will soon be ignored.
Trump’s Case
What is Trump’s case against Mexico, Canada, China, America’s neighbours and its most significant trading partners? The US president accused the first two of not doing enough to control the flow of fentanyl, a potent synthetic opioid analgesic more than 50 times more powerful than morphine, into the US.
Apart from his perennial accusations against China of stealing US technology and other unfair trade practices, Trump also accused Beijing of sending ingredients for making fentanyl to Mexico. Mexico has been Trump’s punching bag since his first term when he wanted to build a wall funded by that country to keep out the so-called human caravans, drug cartels and other criminal gangs from entering the US.
Even when the world was far less interlinked than it is today, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 (enacted to protect US farmers and businesses from foreign competitors), which imposed a 20 per cent tariff on imports, was resisted with retaliatory tariffs by 25 other countries, creating significant distress around the world and worsening the Great Depression.
Polariser-in-Chief
Perhaps Trump has a just cause to take America back from drugs and crime, not to mention his redemptive mission for aliens in some parts of the US now reduced to “eating the dogs and the pets.”
However, for a president who said in his second inaugural address that his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier,” instigating a chaotic trade war, once described by Adam Smith as “beggar-thy-neighbour”, is anything but a peace offering.
Tariffs might be the most beautiful word in Trumptionary. However, nothing sets the world on fire in the lexicon of international trade, such as tariffs, quotas, and sometimes subsidies.
A Different World
Even when the world was far less interlinked than it is today, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 (enacted to protect US farmers and businesses from foreign competitors), which imposed a 20 per cent tariff on imports, was resisted with retaliatory tariffs by 25 other countries, creating significant distress around the world and worsening the Great Depression.
The reality in today’s profoundly connected world is worse. Within hours of the president announcing the 25 per cent tariffs, the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso fell. The Canadian dollar reached its lowest value in 20 years, while the peso hit a four-year low. Stock markets lost billions, and commodity prices surged.
Counting the Cost
Before the one-month tariff pause between the US and its neighbours, analysts forecast the tariffs would hinder US’ GDP growth by approximately 0.25 per cent to 0.3 per cent. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico alone could decrease overall economic output by around $45 billion, with potential losses escalating to $75 billion, following retaliatory measures.
Of course, these are all aside from the potential impact of unilateral tariffs on US jobs and consumer prices and a global supply chain crisis in fragile recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The pause does not affect China, and a tariff war between the world’s leading economies is afoot. In what must rank as one of the cruellest ironies of these times, China, not the US, is honouring the rules-based system by first taking its case to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), while Trump threw tariff bombs on Truth Social.
The jury is out on the immediate and long-term damage caused by this trade war. It did not leave any winners the first time Britain used it in the 19th century, when it enacted the protectionist Corn Laws, or when OPEC used it in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War. America First is a long winter in America Alone. The damage to the US and the rest of the world will linger long after the Trump years.
Elsewhere, the war may be about human caravans, fentanyl, or pirated chips. In Africa, whose immigrants in the US face deportation in large numbers, it’s about all of these and more. It is about losing friendship with a country that was once an inspiration and, more often than not, a moral force for good.
Dagger in Africa’s Back
Africa is not spared in the all-out war. The continent is perplexed that USAID, one of the longest-standing tools of US soft power, is folding in the chaos of America First. The independent US government agency created by Congress 64 years ago to deepen the strategic partnership between America and Africa on issues ranging from security to health and the environment is closed for now, not by an Act of Congress, but by a Trump fiat.
No one is precisely sure what his official auctioneer, Elon Musk, plans to do with USAID or what will replace it. What is certain is that this bridge is broken.
Countries like Nigeria received $1.02 billion in 2023, Ethiopia $1.7 billion the same year, and Kenya $512 million in 2024. Others, including Tanzania, Uganda, Mozambique, and South Africa, also received various sums to fund their food security, humanitarian, and health programmes. USAID was neither perfect nor America’s Hail Mary for Africa. It was, by and large, a mutually beneficial programme. But Africa must now look elsewhere, or better inwards.
In addition, it’s unlikely that a tariff-obsessed Trump would renew the expiring African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which opens the US to duty-free access to over 6,000 products from the continent.
Elsewhere, the war may be about human caravans, fentanyl, or pirated chips. In Africa, whose immigrants in the US face deportation in large numbers, it’s about all of these and more. It is about losing friendship with a country that was once an inspiration and, more often than not, a moral force for good.
Pyrrhic Victory
The White House may be enjoying a victory lap, but chaos was not the only way for Trump to settle his grouse or to save America from the world. For example, under President Joe Biden, Mexico deployed 10,000 troops to the US border before, without a threat. For Canada, the price of appointing a fentanyl czar is far less than the long-term damage to US-Canada relations.
We already know how the war against China will end: Beijing will make new friends and spread its influence elsewhere, while Washington will make new enemies.
Africa must accept that America First is more than a slogan under Trump. It is where the unfinished experiments of his first term and the promise of chaos during his last campaign meet the street: America Alone.
Azu Ishiekwene is the Editor-in-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book, Writing for Media and Monetising It.
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