ANALYSIS: Lungu’s death and the perils of a weak opposition in Zambia

The death of Zambia’s former president on 5 June will be pivotal for the country’s multiparty democracy. Edgar Lungu was a polarising figure for the country, but one that unified the opposition Patriotic Front (PF). He was in power from 2015 to 2021, when he lost the election to President Hakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND).

Mr Lungu’s passing leaves a vacuum that will reshape the power contest before the 2026 general elections, testing the weakening opposition’s resilience and the UPND’s adaptability.

He became president through an unexpected internal party contest following former president Michael Sata’s death in 2014. Perceived as a modest and unassuming figure compared to more outspoken party stalwarts, Mr Lungu quickly emerged as a compromise candidate capable of uniting the PF.

His supporters credit his presidency with accelerating Zambia’s infrastructure development and improving its regional connectivity. His government implemented the compulsory National Health Insurance Scheme in 2018, marking a positive shift to the country’s approach to health care financing.

However, economic challenges deepened under Lungu. The global price of copper – which accounts for 70 per cent of the country’s exports – declined. Foreign borrowing increased, along with electricity rationing due to severe droughts that reduced water levels. Zambia became the first African nation to default on its debt during COVID-19 in 2020, pushing inflation to 15 per cent and devaluing the kwacha by over 50 per cent.

Politically, Mr Lungu’s tenure was marked by both reform and repression. While he oversaw a comprehensive constitutional reform in 2016, his administration was criticised for clamping down on independent media and authoritarian tendencies that led to frequent arrests of then-opposition leader Hichilema.

Following his majority defeat in 2021, Mr Lungu retired from active politics. But he remained a powerful figure with a loyal support base, and in 2023 resumed his position as PF head.

In November 2024, the rematch against Mr Hichilema seemed a certainty when Mr Lungu was selected as the newly formed Tonse Alliance’s candidate for the 2026 presidential elections. But a few weeks later, Zambia’s Constitutional Court disqualified Mr Lungu from contesting the election. The landmark ruling found that his 2015-2016 term counted as a full term, meaning he could not run for what would be a third term.

Some political commentators accuse the UPND of stoking the PF’s internal wrangles and influencing Mr Lungu’s barring from the 2026 polls. Mr Lungu accepted the court’s ruling but remained an influential player and the opposition’s most recognisable leader.

The PF, diminished by factionalism since its 2021 electoral defeat, now faces an acute leadership crisis. Internal tussles between the Miles Sampa, Given Lubinda and Robert Chabinga camps will likely intensify as each seeks to assert dominance without Lungu’s moderating influence.

The weakening of Zambia’s opposition following Mr Lungu’s death illustrates the common challenge of ‘charismatic authority’ – when a movement established around a charismatic leader fragments and loses purpose when that figure is lost. The same happened to Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change following Morgan Tsvangirai’s death in 2018, and Hugo Chavez’s Bolivarian movement in Venezuela.

The PF used Mr Lungu’s appeal rather than strong party institutions or defined policy platforms to attract votes. This renders it prone to internal splits and limited efficacy in Mr Lungu’s absence. And while the opposition struggles to unite behind new leadership or a vision, the ruling UPND party has gained the advantage.

Recognising his party’s institutional deficit, Mr Lungu drove attempts at coalition building to face Mr Hichilema in 2026. First was the United Kwacha Alliance, which lost momentum in 2024 after most major parties pulled out, including the PF.

Then came the Tonse Alliance, which brought together over 11 political parties. The alliance now faces a leadership contest for the presidential election ticket. Its prospects for the 2026 polls seem slim considering that only one alliance party – the PF – has ever won over 50 per cent of the vote required in a presidential election.

The opposition’s lack of cohesion may boost the ruling UPND despite public dissatisfaction over economic hardship and a perceived decline in democratic quality. Unless a new opposition figure can command similar respect as Mr Lungu did across party lines, the opposition will likely enter the 2026 polls divided and weakened.

Mr Hichilema must resist complacency and deal with the growing criticism, especially over governance, restrictions on civic space and perceived corruption, particularly in his flagship Constituency Development Funds projects. If the opposition finds its footing, the country could see a protest vote akin to his 2021 victory.

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The PF must identify a cohesive leader to avert further fragmentation. The very different political pedigrees of candidates such as former Lusaka mayor Miles Sampa and former justice minister Given Lubinda could undermine the party’s electoral prospects and reduce the potential for renewal.

The effectiveness of the Tonse Alliance was significantly tied to Mr Lungu’s influence. Without a new leader capable of uniting disparate factions and garnering widespread backing, Zambia’s opposition may continue to falter.

There is no time to waste, especially as history shows such alliances rarely succeed. In 2006, the main opposition candidate, Anderson Mazoka, died less than six months before the election. The United Democratic Alliance coalition of three parties – each with formidable personalities, including Mr Hichilema – performed poorly, allowing Levy Mwanawasa to increase his margin of victory. The Tonse Alliance’s multiple presidential aspirants might face the same hurdle.

Mr Lungu’s death will unsettle the opposition and give Mr Hichilema a clear edge in next year’s elections. However, should the PF resolve its internal rifts or fresh voices emerge to rally support, the 2026 elections could still be closely contested.

If not, the country might drift towards single-party dominance, threatening democratic checks and balances. The coming year is vital not only for the PF’s survival but the future of multiparty democracy in Zambia.

Zenge Simakoloyi, Research Officer and David Willima, Researcher, Institute for Security Studies (ISS)

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).