Will Nigeria, other African countries be affected by Trump’s latest Iran sanctions?

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On Monday, the US threatened new rounds of sanctions against Iran. It made it clear that the goal was to isolate Iran and weaken its already battered economy.

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President Donald Trump intends to increase economic pressure on Tehran to get an edge in the six-month-long war, which began in February with an unprovoked US and Israeli strike that killed the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 165 schoolgirls and teachers.

On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a US plan to cut ties with countries doing business with Iran and cut their businesses off from the dollar-based financial system.

He dubbed this “Operation Economic Outcast” and described it as the “greatest financial offensive ever.”

Experts say the move indicates Washington’s failure to subjugate Iran militarily after about six months of war. President of the Society for International Relations Awareness (SIRA), Owei Lakemfa, said the US action is illegal under international law.

“What the US wants is to make its own problem the problem of other states. But it has no right to sanction two states for trading with each other,” he said.

Iran’s largest trading partners are the primary target of this policy. This includes: China, which buys 90 per cent of Iranian oil; Iraq, which depends on Iranian electricity and gas; India, one of Iran’s top five trading partners; Turkey, which imports Iranian natural gas and exports manufactured goods to countries south of Turkey; and the UAE. But the UAE disclosed last week that it was suspending all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran.

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Although significantly lower than those of any of these countries, African states also have strong economic, trade, and diplomatic ties with Iran. The country has 24 active embassies on the African continent, including in Nigeria, and 19 African countries also have embassies in Iran.

In 2024, Iran announced that trade volume with African states reached $1.2 billion, with non-oil exports accounting for the bulk of that trade. In 2025, it was announced that trade had grown by 85 per cent.

For Tehran, relations with Africa are driven by the need to circumvent Western sanctions that have lasted for decades and to reduce its dependence on its major trading partners.

Iran-Africa trade

Iran exported $680.12 million worth of goods to 37 African countries in 2024, with Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa standing as its top three trading partners on the continent, together accounting for nearly 63 per cent of the total export value.

The value of commodities exported to Ghana stood at $243.49 million, while Kenya followed at $103.27 million and South Africa at $80.66 million.

Iran imported $107 million worth of commodities from 21 African countries in the same year. South Africa led at $22.31 million, followed by Ghana at $17.74 million and Seychelles at $13.42 million.

These numbers rank low compared to Tehran’s trade with over a dozen other countries but reflect the long-standing economic footprint on the continent.

Years earlier, Iran set a target to increase trade with African countries to more than $2 billion. Last year, it expanded trade with Africa, with its exports reaching 32 states, up from 27 the year before.

Major exports to the continent include steel and iron products, urea, petrochemicals, bitumen, cement, motor oil and food products.

Aside from direct trade exports and imports, Iran’s ties with Africa also extend to finance, telecommunications, logistics, technology, and investment. For instance, MTN Group, a South African company, has a 49 per cent stake in Irancell, Tehran’s second-largest mobile network operator. The company has been under immense pressure from the US to withdraw from the country.

Tehran also has a 15 per cent stake in the Namibian state-owned uranium mine, Rössing Uranium

In 2023, Kenya disclosed that plans were underway to allow Iran to set up a car manufacturing plant in Mombasa. Likewise, in Zimbabwe, the government signed an agreement which allowed Iranian companies to partner with a local firm to build a tractor manufacturing plant.

Both countries also signed cooperation agreements over fisheries, animal health, livestock, and information technology years earlier.

Modest trade, economic ties with Iran

But modest trade relations between Africa and Iran give it less priority in Mr Trump’s sanctions campaign.

The new secondary sanctions are unlikely to affect African countries. For instance, no African country is listed among the 12 affected by the US sanctions on 60 entities involved in Iranian trade.

Also, no African countries are among the top 20 countries Iran trades with. Data from the World Trade Organisation showed that Ghana, the largest destination for Iranian exports to Africa, ranks 22nd globally. Also, South Africa, the largest African exporter to Iran, ranks 41st globally, with Ghana 43rd.

Meanwhile, Nigeria is not among Iran’s top 10 export destinations on the continent and ranks 63rd out of 112 state partners. Official records show that Nigeria is not among Iran’s import sources, and exports to Nigeria totalled only $2.12.

Yusuf Bako, a lecturer of International Relations at Baze University, warned that the low trade volume between Iran and African countries might not be completely insulated from Mr Trump’s campaign.

He pointed out that the goal of the US policy is to isolate Iran through economic sanctions that could affect anyone who stands in the way of its objective.

“This scattergun approach is very Trumpian; it is a mob boss mentality in applying pressure, just recall the tariffs episode.

“This economic move is the US administration proving it has muscles to flex. It has suffered a strategic and military defeat in the Middle East; it has damaged its reputation amongst allies in the region whose security it once guaranteed,” he said.

Can Trump’s sanctions affect Nigeria, African states?

Mr Bako stated that although small and middle states are not primary targets, they could risk drawing US ire by defying its demands.

He also suggested that this secondary sanction should not be disregarded by Nigeria, given Mr Trump’s recent antagonism against the country over allegations of Christian genocide.

“This threat of sanctions will have to be taken seriously by Nigeria, given the recent interaction with the US vis-à-vis the wrongfully purported ‘Christian genocide’,” he stated.

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“There is an organised Shia community in Northern Nigeria with strong ties to Iran. There is a strong possibility that the US will attempt to draw connections where none exist to make its point.”

He also said “Nigeria suffers from numerous internal conflicts” and that it cannot afford “renewed aggression and pressure from external interference.”

Mr Lakemfa, however, argued that the new secondary sanction would have no implications because sanctions on Iran are not new US policies.

“The thing about the sanctions against Iran is that they have been in place for a long time,” he said, referring to US and other Western sanctions on Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

“Also, the US has always used sanctions. It has done it against Venezuela, it did it against Cuba, and it has done it against several countries, including Syria. So, it is a normal thing,” he said.

Mr Lakemfa also said that the US cannot afford to de-dollarise other countries’ currencies due to its current domestic realities.

“The US benefits from controlling the global financial system, from other countries continuing to use the dollar. It uses monetary policy to manage domestic inflation and the economy, and it is under pressure right now.

“That’s why countries that try to move away from the dollar can be seen as challenging US influence,” he added.