Political, traditional leaders count gains, setbacks of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

As Nigeria’s Fourth Republic enters its 27th year, political leaders, traditional rulers and policymakers gathered in Abuja on Thursday to interrogate what has worked and what has failed in the country’s longest stretch of democratic governance.

The forum, organised by the Daily Trust Group under its annual Daily Trust Dialogue, was convened to assess whether democracy has delivered tangible outcomes for Nigerians beyond the ritual of elections.

The Thursday dialogue with the theme, ‘Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: What Is Working and What Is Not,’ is the 23rd since the organisers set it up.

In his remarks, the chairperson of the forum, former Senate President Bukola Saraki, urged the speakers and panelists to have a “productive discussion” instead of using it to “push our respective political agendas.”

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The discourse was led by three presenters and panelists – former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, former lawmaker Nnenna Elendu and Sunday Dare, a presidential spokesperson.

Endurance without dividends

Setting the tone, the Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, acknowledged that the survival of civilian rule since 1999 remains a historic achievement, particularly when measured against Nigeria’s long history of military interventions that defined the first three republics.

Yet, he warned that longevity alone cannot substitute for impact.

Mr Ladoja, who was the special guest of honour at the event, lamented that insecurity, which has “lasted too long,” continues to undermine the basic promise of democracy.

He added that failures in education, justice and service delivery have denied many Nigerians the dividends of democracy.

That concern was reinforced by Nnenna Elendu, a lawmaker at the seventh and eighth House of Representatives.

Ms Elendu argued that Nigeria’s democratic crisis lies not in the ballot box but in the widening gap between politics and governance.

“Democracy is not validated by longevity alone. It is validated by outcomes,” she said.

She recalled the high expectations that accompanied Nigeria’s return to civil rule after decades of military dominance, describing the Fourth Republic as one of the most consequential democratic experiments in the Global South. However, she warned that both Nigeria and the wider world are now experiencing a “stealth democratic recession”, in which democratic norms are being quietly tested.

Ms Elendu further noted that while Nigerians still vote, elections have failed to produce accountability or responsive leadership.

“Elections ask who should lead. Governance answers how society should be run,” she said, stressing that while elections are episodic, governance is continuous.

Citing the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) data, she said over 70 per cent of Nigerians are dissatisfied with how democracy functions, believing elections do not reflect their views or remove bad leaders. This disillusionment, she noted, is reflected in declining voter turnout—from 52 per cent in 1999 to just 26.7 per cent in 2023.

Elections without accountability

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai echoed this theme, warning that selective justice and weak institutions have eroded public trust in democratic governance.

He criticised what he described as uneven application of anti-corruption laws and called for an end to detention without proper investigation, arguing that the rule of law must apply equally to all citizens.

“Arrests without evidence must end. Detention before investigation must end. Governing by intimidation rather than institutions must end,” said Mr El-Rufai.

Poverty, inequality and democratic fatigue

The speakers noted that democracy has failed to shield Nigerians from worsening economic hardship. Ms Elendu cited World Bank data indicating that more than 133 million Nigerians now live in multidimensional poverty.

“Democracy, sadly, has clearly not translated to economic security,” she said.

She warned that youth unemployment, brain drain and widening inequality are eroding faith in democratic governance, while ethnic and regional fault lines are being sharpened by economic disparities, partisan narratives and digital misinformation.

Mr El-Rufai also pointed to growing public cynicism toward state institutions, noting that governance failures risk creating space for authoritarian alternatives in a country already grappling with insecurity and social fragmentation.

Not all failure: civic space and innovation

Despite the grim highlights, the speakers agreed that Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has recorded important gains. Ms Elendu emphasised the expansion of civic space enabled by technological innovations which, she said, have democratised information and strengthened citizen engagement.

She cited the #EndSARS protests as evidence that democratic freedoms—particularly expression, association and mobilisation—have empowered citizens to challenge state excesses.

She also pointed to the rapid growth of Nigeria’s creative economy, noting that film, fashion, literature and digital content creation have become major employers and drivers of cultural influence.

Gender exclusion as democratic weakness

A point of convergence was the recognition that Nigeria’s democracy remains deeply exclusionary. Ms Elendu described women’s underrepresentation in politics—below six per cent—as a governance failure rather than a social anomaly.

“A democracy that marginalises women weakens itself,” she said.

She cited Nigeria’s own history to demonstrate the benefits of inclusion, pointing to the tenure of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as finance minister, which culminated in the landmark $18 billion Paris Club debt relief.

She urged lawmakers to pass the long-stalled Special Seats Bill, arguing that inclusive governance is essential for democratic resilience.

Institutions under pressure

Concerns about institutional decline also dominated the discussions. Ms Elendu referenced polling data showing that nearly 80 per cent of Nigerians have distrust in the judiciary, largely due to perceptions of political interference and inefficiency.

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She warned that when judicial impartiality erodes, democracy itself becomes the casualty.

She also criticised the National Assembly’s high turnover rate and diminishing independence, arguing that a weakened legislature cannot effectively check executive power or represent citizens’ interests.

The same concern was echoed by the Olubadan earlier in his remarks.

A shared warning

In closing, the speakers agreed that Nigeria is showing clear signs of democratic fatigue such as declining voter participation, youth disengagement, rising cynicism and shrinking tolerance for dissent.

“We must stop dancing to the loud music of elections and start paying attention to the lifeboats of governance,” Ms Elendu warned.

The consensus at the Dialogue was that Nigeria’s democracy can still deliver, but only if citizens, institutions and political leaders recommit to accountability, inclusion and service-driven governance, rather than power acquisition alone.