Elections 2026: Is Zambia’s democratic success story beginning to fray?

Zambia is one of the few African countries to have experienced peaceful transfers of power between multiple political parties. But its sound democratic record – particularly the Electoral Commission of Zambia’s (ECZ) technical capacity – will be tested during the upcoming general elections on 13 August.

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According to the 2025 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index, Zambia ranks among Africa’s top 10 democracies but remains a ‘hybrid regime’ because of its persistent governance constraints. The credibility of the 2026 polls will depend less on whether democratic institutions are in place and more on their performance in a charged political climate.

The ECZ has registered a record 26 presidential candidates (14 of whom are approved), including incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, who is seeking a second term after being elected in 2021. The high number of candidates reflects both an open electoral space and serious opposition fragmentation.

Leadership wrangles and alleged executive interference in the Registrar of Societies – which registers and regulates all professional societies and political parties – have spawned many short-lived alliances and parties. These weaken the chances of an opposition candidate securing the 50%+1 threshold, despite late-stage coalitions.

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Roughly 8.7 million of Zambia’s over 21 million citizens have registered to vote, suggesting a high voter turnout. An Afrobarometer survey reveals that 86% of Zambians believe elections are the best way to choose political leaders, underscoring the importance of public trust in electoral institutions and procedures.

However, electoral competition is unfolding amid fierce political divisions. Disputes such as the ongoing burial controversy surrounding former president Edgar Lungu dominate the political discourse.

But voters are more likely to prioritise social and economic concerns such as the rising cost of living (despite reduced inflation and improved GDP growth), unemployment and unreliable electricity supply. In 2024, approximately 72 per cent of citizens reportedly had either no or irregular access to electricity. These trends suggest that economic grievances will outweigh elite political disputes in shaping voter behaviour.

Another contentious issue is the raft of major constitutional and legislative reforms introduced just 12 months before the polls. The Constitutional Amendment Act No 13 of 2025 faced strong public opposition and judicial scrutiny. After being criticised for its rushed process and inadequate consultation, the bill was declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court. Revisions were made, and it was eventually enacted in December 2025.

Notable changes in the act include expanding Parliament from 156 to 226 directly elected constituencies and introducing 40 proportional representation seats reserved for women, youth and persons with disabilities. Women currently occupy only 14.4 per cent of parliamentary seats.

The ECZ’s delimitation exercise, which added 70 constituencies, marks the biggest redrawing of Zambia’s electoral map in the democratic era. Driven more by political decisions than ECZ recommendations, it has triggered gerrymandering accusations favouring the ruling United Party for National Development’s (UPND) strongholds.

However, determining whether gerrymandering has occurred requires a case-by-case analysis, not just an assessment of the number of seats allocated. The UPND-aligned Southern Province increased from 20 to 29 seats, matching the gain in the similarly populated opposition-leaning Eastern Province. Muchinga Province (opposition-leaning) saw the largest proportional increase, while Western Province remains comparatively well represented in terms of population and voter-per-seat ratios.

The government has also pushed through legislation, introducing over 70 bills in the two weeks before Parliament was dissolved. These include the controversial Electoral Process (Amendment) Bill (which has since been enacted) and the proposed Public Gatherings Bill. This ‘legislative overload’ represents a flooding tactic aimed at limiting public scrutiny and consensus-building.

The Public Gatherings Bill replaces the colonial-era Public Order Act of 1955. It is framed as potentially progressive, with a notification system replacing the permit system to reduce discretion and remove restrictions on political attire. But concerns remain that vague wording could restrict gatherings, give police broad immunity during protests, and create unclear rules on ‘protected areas’.

The Electoral Process (Amendment) Act shortens voter register inspection from 90 to 14 days, adds party recall provisions, and ties the new 40 proportional seats to presidential vote share. These changes compromise transparency and risk disadvantaging smaller parties and reducing parliamentary independence.

Also, the act’s requirement for candidate adoption certificates to be signed by the president and secretary-general as per Registrar of Societies records, conflicts with prescribed constitutional qualifications and the Societies Act.

Ultimately, the August elections’ credibility will rest not only on legal reforms but on the perceived neutrality and integrity of the institutions responsible for implementing them. Zambia’s ECZ, judiciary and oversight bodies remain comparatively robust on paper. But political use of legal and administrative instruments could jeopardise public trust in democratic processes.

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Although criminal defamation laws were repealed in 2022, the Cyber Crimes Act of 2025 has been used to regulate political activity. On 2 March, opposition Socialist Party President Fred M’membe was arrested under the act for alleged ‘vulgar’ Facebook posts ‘intended to humiliate’ Hichilema.

This reinforces the notion that laws are increasingly being used by the ruling party to weaken the opposition. As a result, there is a growing danger that the populace may believe the elections are determined through legal manoeuvring rather than the ballot itself.

With less than 70 days before polling, several early warning indicators are visible. These include the immense operational burden associated with implementing a new electoral map and revised electoral procedures. Added to that is growing mistrust surrounding the Registrar of Societies, reports of harassment of journalists and independent candidates, and perceived restrictions on civic and expressive freedoms.

Election observers should closely monitor these signs following the African Union and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa’s recent pre-election assessment.

Zambia’s democratic maturity must be judged not only by how peaceful elections are, but on whether the public sees institutions as impartial, reforms as legitimate, and political competition as truly open and credible. The lesson from Southern African polls is that procedural legitimacy is insufficient for Zambia to retain its hard-won democratic credibility.

Zenge Simakoloyi, Research Officer, Africa Peace and Security Governance, Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Addis Ababa; Dr Kryticous Patrick Nshindano, Public Policy and Electoral Management Expert; and David Willima, Researcher, Climate Risk and Human Security, ISS, Pretoria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).