ANALYSIS: Can Peter Obi cause a swing in 2025 Anambra governorship election?

The 2025 Anambra governorship election is likely to be a test of Peter Obi’s political strength.

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The former governor of the state and 2023 Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate won over 95.7 per cent of the votes in Anambra State during the presidential election. He also won in all five South-east states, winning over 70 per cent of the votes in the region.

Many Nigerian youths consider him to be honest, prudent, and transparent, and they have a fanatic desire to see him elected as the country’s president.

Two years after inspiring millions in the Obidient Movement with his message of reform and accountability, Mr Obi faces a significant test on Saturday — whether his national appeal can translate into a political victory for the LP candidate, George Moghalu, in his home state. He faces a formidable opponent in Governor Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), who enjoys a strong grassroots network and the advantage of incumbency.

Mr Moghalu is not new to the scene — he contested the 2003 governorship election under the defunct ANPP but lost to Mr Obi, who ran on the APGA platform. Twenty-three years later, fate has reversed their roles — the former rival now flies the LP flag, hoping that Mr Obi’s influence can help him win the seat.

At the LP campaign flag-off in Onitsha in July, Mr Obi described Mr Moghalu and his running mate, Ifeoma Okaro, as the best team to deliver “people-oriented” governance.

Sensing confusion among his supporters over his alliance with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Mr Obi clarified his stand at the rally. “If anyone asks where Peter Obi belongs today, tell them Peter Obi is in the Labour Party. The coalition is for the future — 2027. But today, our mission is to begin the journey to good governance right here in Anambra,” he said.

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Governor Soludo remains the candidate to beat with APGA’s deep grassroots base in Anambra. The election will test whether Mr Obi’s movement can stop Mr Soludo’s bid for a second term — a victory that could boost Mr Obi’s popularity both in Anambra and across the country before the 2027 presidential election.

**Damian Okeke-Ogene, former Vice President of Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide**

The weight of Obi’s influence

Damian Okeke-Ogene, a former South-east coordinator for Mr Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign and the immediate-past national vice president of Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, does not think Mr Obi’s support will tilt the scales. “Anambra does not vote based on party lines but on individuals,” Mr Okeke-Ogene said. “Mr Obi is a respected national figure with goodwill, but that may not matter in this election.”

He explained in an interview with PREMIUM TIMES why the incumbent governor would be difficult to displace. “No governor in the state has employed more than 12,000 people, including teachers and medical doctors, within three years. No one built the Government House before Soludo did,” he argued.

For Mr Okeke-Ogene, APGA’s control of the state remains firm. “In grassroots politics, no party can defeat APGA in Anambra now,” he said. “Mr Moghalu is a good man, but he cannot match Mr Soludo in this race.”

He also mentioned APGA’s recent victory in the Anambra South Senatorial District — an area once considered weak for the party — as proof that Mr Soludo’s influence is growing.

“APGA had never won in the South Senatorial District before, but under Soludo, the party did,” he said. “Even if LP loses, it will not affect Obi’s 2027 ambition.”

Critics question Obi’s consistency

However, Peter Okala, a former governorship candidate of the National Conscience Party (NCP), believes Mr Obi’s influence is fading due to “inconsistency and lack of investment in people.”

“If Obi had invested in human development in the state, those people would now be the ones defending his cause,” he said. “In politics, you build people — not just show up at burials and birthdays to take pictures.”

Mr Okala described Mr Moghalu as “a fine gentleman” but said that governing Anambra requires more than good character. “He was also a candidate in 2003, but you need more than gentleness to govern Anambra. You need structure, funding, and grassroots connections,” he said.

He accused Mr Obi of confusing his followers by aligning with the ADC while endorsing Mr Moghalu. “This is what I mean by inconsistency,” he said. “Mr Obi has moved through many parties. You can’t claim ADC and still expect loyalty in LP.”

According to him, the LP in Anambra is not united. “Everybody knows LP will not win in Anambra,” he said. “It will also affect Obi in 2027 because he has not built a lasting political structure,” he added, disagreeing with Mr Ogene.

Mr Okala argued that Mr Obi’s 2023 support was driven by circumstance. “People voted for him because they were angry at Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket. That moral outrage powered the Obidient movement, not structure.”

He added that if the late senator, Ifeanyi Uba, were alive and contesting, “he would have been Soludo’s biggest threat.”

**Ikenna Azomchine, South-east coordinator of Obidient Movement**

Obidient Movement coordinator endorses Soludo

Ikenna Azomchine, the South-east coordinator of the Obidient Movement, also expressed doubt about Mr Obi’s influence. He said his “mixed messages” were helping Mr Soludo.

“Peter Obi’s confusion is helping Governor Soludo because he supports the LP candidate while claiming to be in a coalition with ADC,” he said.

Mr Azomchine is supporting Mr Soludo in the election despite being an Obidient coordinator in Anambra.

He said Mr Obi’s endorsement of Mr Moghalu came without consultation. “I told him that many Obidients in Anambra voted for him in 2023, but are APGA members. He didn’t listen,” he said, suggesting that at the national election, Mr Obi commands goodwill across party lines, while his supporters would vote for their parties at local elections.

“Mr Moghalu is not a member of the Obidient Movement, yet Obi endorsed him without consulting us. That was a mistake,” he added, warning that Mr Obi’s base in the state is now divided.

“From what I see, there’s no real strength in Obi’s base in Anambra. Soludo will win them,” he said, urging Mr Obi to “rebuild the Obidient Movement after the election.”

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Anambra 2025: Ex-Anambra governors, their remarkable feats and low moments

Test of structure versus passion

Political commentator Adebamiwa Michael, in an article posted on Facebook, “Anambra 2025 – The Real Test of Peter Obi’s Obidient Movement and the Politics Beyond Emotion,” stated that the upcoming election is the biggest test of the movement’s maturity.

“In 2023, the Obidient wave changed the country’s political awareness but failed where structure mattered most,” Mr Michael wrote. “Most of its members were new voters, volunteers, and idealists — not real ward or polling unit agents.”

He said Anambra’s politics is based on local ties, family loyalties, and patronage, which emotions or brand power alone cannot break.

“The question is whether the movement can turn passion into structure, anger into strategy, and popularity into power in Obi’s home state,” he said.

For him, Saturday’s election is not just about winning or losing. “It is a moral and strategic test for the Obidient movement. A win means a grassroots revolution in South-east politics; a loss will show that in Nigerian democracy, popularity without structure is passion without power,” he added.

The defining battle

Anambra, renowned for its political awareness and independence, has been the stronghold of APGA for nearly two decades. Governor Soludo, though criticised by many, has substantial control over grassroots politics in Anambra. His visible works, youth employment, and local campaign networks have strengthened APGA’s position as a leading party in the state.

For Mr Obi, the stakes are high. A win by the LP would demonstrate that the Obidient Movement is not just an online campaign, but a political force to be reckoned with. A loss, however, would suggest that while Mr Obi enjoys moral authority and national appeal, his movement still lacks a solid grassroots structure.