Midterm Scorecard: Tinubu fails to stem insecurity as thousands are killed, kidnapped

Two years into the Bola Tinubu presidency, insecurity has persisted in Nigeria, despite his vow to curtail the challenge in his Renewed Hope Agenda, an encompassing action plan for the country’s development.

Mr Tinubu repeatedly vowed to curtail insecurity threatening Nigeria’s stability by reforming the country’s security architecture.

“Security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence,” Mr Tinubu said in his inaugural speech on 29 May 2023. “We shall invest more in our security personnel, and this means more than an increase in number. We shall provide better training, equipment, pay, and firepower.”

Since that declaration, armed non-state actors have intensified their attacks, mostly on rural communities, killing and kidnapping thousands of people. Although the administration’s war against terrorism and banditry has yielded some results, emerging threats and sustained terror campaigns are frustrating its efforts.

Key terror attacks

Since Mr Tinubu’s government came to power in May 2023, Nigeria has suffered more than 20 terror attacks.

He was barely three months in office when 36 military personnel were killed on 14 August 2023 while responding to terror threats in some communities in Niger State. That same day, a terror group led by notorious Dogo Gide also shot down a military aircraft on a rescue mission, although the Nigerian Air Force said the crash was an accident.

Three months later, Nigerians woke to shocking news from Bokkos and Mangu local government areas of Plateau State, where over 100 locals were killed on Christmas Eve. Violence has continued in the area with several attacks and reprisals.

In March, armed terrorists abducted 137 students from elementary schools in Kuriga, Chikun LGA, Kaduna State. The students were released two weeks later, after an undisclosed ransom amount was paid.

That same month, 15 military operatives consisting of two majors, one captain, and 12 soldiers of the 181 Amphibious Battalion, Nigerian Army, were killed by a mob of youths in Okuama, a village in Ughelli South LGA of Delta State.

On 29 June 2024, multiple suicide bombings occurred in Gwoza, Borno State, targeting a wedding, a funeral and a hospital. These coordinated attacks resulted in at least 32 deaths and 48 injuries.

On 3 September 2024, more than 50 armed jihadists attacked the district of Tarmuwa in Yobe State, killing at least 100 villagers. The assailants looted and set fire to shops, homes, and schools, targeting markets and places of worship. The attack was reportedly against villagers, whom the terrorists accused of collaborating with security forces.

More recently, there have been clashes and violent attacks in Benue, Borno and other parts of the country, resulting in killings and abductions.

Data on violence

Amnesty International says over 10,000 people have been killed by non-state actors across Nigeria since Mr Tinubu assumed office. Although the Nigerian government disputes the figure, it has not provided any data to counter it.

However, data gathered from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a global data hub that collects real-time conflict-related data, showed that 7,472 people were killed while 12,584 were abducted in the last two years.

This data, spanning from 29 May 2023 to 19 May 2025, focuses exclusively on deaths and abductions perpetrated by terror groups.

Compared to the first year of the administration, the rate of killings and abductions slightly reduced in the second year, according to PREMIUM TIMES’ analysis of the data. While 4,556 were killed and 7,086 kidnapped in the first year, 5,498 people were abducted and 2,916 were killed in the second year.

This could be attributed to the ongoing offensives and negotiations with terror groups. Since 2023, Mr Tinubu has met several times with service chiefs, each time charging them to end the cycle of killings and abductions.

The National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, said the charge has yielded some results, with more than 13,000 terrorists killed in the insurgency-ravaged North-east alone. Mr Ribadu, who made a presentation at the national summit of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to mark the second anniversary of the administration, further disclosed that 124,408 other terrorists and their families in the troubled region surrendered to troops.

On banditry in the North-west, the NSA said more than 50 kingpins, including Halilu Sububu, 70 deputy commanders, and hundreds of their foot soldiers, have been killed.

“Over 35 [bandit] warlords surrendered as part of our non-kinetic approach, which we call the Kaduna Model,” Mr Ribadu said, noting a new programme code-named “Operation Safe Corridor North-west” has been designed to welcome and probably rehabilitate repentant bandits.

In places like Kaduna and Katsina, community and government-led peace deals have stemmed violence in parts of the state. In what the government and experts now describe as the “Birnin Gwari Model”, some bandits [in Birnin Gwari and Chikun areas] of Kaduna State surrendered their arms, reducing killings and abductions. In Katsina, 14 bandit groups laid down their arms.

However, similar truces consistently failed in Sokoto, Niger, Zamfara, and other northern states plagued by banditry, with the terrorists resuming attacks, imposing illegal levies, and unleashing violence without restraint.

Resurgence of insurgency, emergence of new groups

Even though some progress has been made in the war against insecurity in the last two years, the resurgence of Islamist insurgency in the North-east and the emergence of new terror groups in the North-central and North-west regions have added to the challenges.

Recently, ideology-driven Boko Haram and its breakaway faction, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have stepped up attacks on civilians and security personnel in various parts of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. Tagged the BAY states by conflict experts, insurgents fleeing military offensives have now resorted to guerrilla warfare, taking personnel by surprise at military bases and retreating to other targets.

In the North-central and North-west where locals are terrorised by bandits, new terror groups—the Mahmuda and Lakurawa—emerged, after years of maintaining sleeper cells in ungoverned areas of Gudu and Tangaza LGAs of Sokoto State, and the Kainji forest straddling Kwara and Niger states.

PREMIUM TIMES understands that the emergence of these new groups is, in one way or another, associated with the spillover of violence in the Sahel.

READ ALSO: Midterm Review: Tinubu’s gender inclusion agenda falls short of promises

Zonal Security Reports: Insurgency, banditry, others

The North-west tops the insecurity table with 2,456 deaths and 7,260 abductions recorded there in the last two years. The South-west region recorded the fewest cases of killings and kidnappings.

In the North-west, Katsina recorded the most fatalities, but Zamfara had more cases of abductions. Jigawa and Kano are the least affected states in the region.

North West	Killed	Kidnapped
Kaduna	485	1,740
Kano	10	8
Kebbi	59	118
Katsina	781	1,163
Sokoto	442	836
Jigawa	16	3
Zamfara	663	3,392
TOTAL	2,456	7,260

Table 1: Casualties and abductions in North-west

In the North-central region, 2,674 people were abducted and 2,291 people were killed with Benue recording the most fatalities, followed by Plateau and Niger states.

Niger State recorded the most cases of abductions in the region with more than 1,000 locals affected. It was followed by the neighbouring Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where 459 people were kidnapped.

North Central	Killed	Abducted
Niger	381	1,051
Kwara	35	177
Kogi	84	374
Nassarawa	132	131
Benue	893	375
Plateau	677	107
FCT/Abuja	89	459
TOTAL	2,291	2,674

Table 2: Killings and abductions in North-central

In the North-east, Borno State remains the epicentre of violence as Boko Haram and ISWAP continue their siege. In Borno, 997 people were killed and 640 others kidnapped. Taraba, always in the news for the farmers-herders crisis, came next, recording 207 deaths and 180 abductions.

Gombe remains the most peaceful state in the region, with three abductions and deaths.

North East	Killed	Abducted
Adamawa	52	77
Borno	997	640
Bauchi	54	111
Gombe	3	3
Taraba	207	180
Yobe	144	19
TOTAL	1,457	944

Table 3: Killings and abductions in North-east

While insurgency, banditry, and farmers-herders conflict rage on in the northern part of the country, cultism, militancy and communal clashes rage in the southern part, a further analysis of the ACLED data showed.

In the South-east, where a separatist agitation dating back to the Nigerian civil war has reopened, at least 536 people were killed and 390 others abducted. Imo, Anambra, Ebonyi and Enugu recorded most of the killings and kidnappings.

South-east	Killed	Abducted
Abia	37	46
Anambra	138	92
Ebonyi	102	25
Enugu	83	172
Imo	176	55
TOTAL	536	390

Table 4: Insecurity in the South-east

Waterway abductions and killings by militants and other armed men were recorded in the South-south region, where 458 lives were lost and 811 people abducted. While Delta State accounted for the highest number of fatalities, Rivers recorded the highest for abductions.

South-south	Killed	Abducted
Akwa Ibom	39	37
Bayelsa	36	15
Cross River	63	176
Delta	110	177
Edo	109	224
Rivers	101	182
TOTAL	458	811

Table 5: Casualties and abductions in the South-south

In the South-west, 274 people were killed and 505 others were abducted in the two years. Ogun State recorded the highest fatalities, followed by Ondo, Osun, Lagos and Oyo states.

Kidnapping continues to linger in Ondo, where 209 people were abducted. The state recorded its worst experience in the 2022 ISWAP attack on a Church in Owo.

South-west	Killed	Abducted
Ekiti	10	44
Lagos
.