How Europe, Africa can find love in a time of Trump

The re-emergence of United States (US) President Donald Trump, coupled with his trademark protectionism, is sending shockwaves through global diplomacy. Traditional alliances are being tested, and Europe is at a crossroads.

To counter the threats posed by this new wave of American insularity, European policymakers should pursue a meaningful rapprochement with Africa. The rationale is clear: historical linkages, geographic proximity and existing trade relationships offer a strong foundation. However, the relationship is complicated by a trilemma of underdeveloped trade, talent shortages in Europe, and Africa’s lagging technology.

Since COVID-19, global trade dynamics have been reshaped by nearshoring, reshoring and friend-shoring as nations seek to safeguard strategic interests and ‘de-risk’ their supply chains amid disruptions. Energy access and critical minerals have emerged as top priorities, positioning Africa’s abundant resources as a compelling strategic asset for Europe.

However, Professor David Luke of the London School of Economics told ISS Today that the trade relationship between Europe and Africa was operating well below its potential. A combination of historical baggage, policy inertia and a lack of willingness to address contemporary issues has left both sides underperforming. Yet, this friction also presents an opportunity to reset the relationship.
With a pragmatic and collaborative approach, Europe can counterbalance China’s extractive practices and Trump-style protectionism, offering African states a reliable, long-term partner in the West.

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This is particularly important as discontent grows in Africa over China’s trade practices, which prioritise raw material extraction without meaningful local value addition. Europe faces similar challenges with China regarding overcapacity and lopsided trade, and can align with Africa to form a united front in addressing these issues.

To reset its relationship with Africa, Europe must pursue several policy shifts.
First, it should balance the terms of trade. Increasing market access for African brands, easing non-tariff barriers, addressing European Union (EU) agricultural subsidies and recognising Africa’s geographical indications would create a fairer, more equitable partnership.

Second, Europe must actively support the African Continental Free Trade Area, drawing on its own integration experience to help catalyse Africa’s economic cohesion.

Third, Europe’s inclination towards overregulation – evident in policies like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and strict zero-carbon shipping and deforestation laws – needs recalibration. These measures risk stifling Africa’s growth, particularly given the limited fiscal headroom of many African nations.

Fourth, Europe must scale up its financial commitments to African infrastructure. By revitalising the underwhelming Global Gateway initiative, Europe can support projects that enhance connectivity, lower production costs and unlock Africa’s trade potential.

Fifth – and perhaps most crucially – strong leadership and vision are required from policymakers. These include influential continental heavyweights such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and African Union (AU) Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat.

Yet, achieving these policy shifts is easier said than done. The EU’s bureaucratic inertia and the growing influence of right-wing political forces threaten to derail any meaningful rapprochement.

On the African side, domestic preoccupations and often lacklustre engagement with European counterparts exacerbate the challenge. Institute for Security Studies Senior Researcher Priyal Singh says many European capitals have grown frustrated that their investments in Africa aren’t adequately ‘rewarded’ or acknowledged by African partners. Other actors, like Russia, are seen to benefit far more disproportionately, he says.

Building a sustainable partnership will require bold, coordinated efforts on both sides – a tall order, but an imperative for mutual prosperity.

European economies face a demographic crisis: ageing populations and declining birth rates threaten long-term economic sustainability. Immigration, particularly from Africa, is essential to fill labour shortages, especially in low-skilled sectors that drive economic growth. Yet, the political zeitgeist across Europe is increasingly hostile to immigration, with right-wing narratives fuelling resentment towards multiculturalism.

This policy paradox is becoming increasingly untenable. Europe’s economies depend on African talent to sustain growth, yet rising xenophobia and restrictive immigration policies are closing the door on the very workforce they need.

The perception of an influx of undocumented, low-skilled migrants is fuelling right-wing populism, threatening social cohesion, and prompting even stricter immigration controls. This, in turn, risks hampering the legal migration of skilled African workers.

Meanwhile, Africa is grappling with a brain drain. In Nigeria, for example, the post-pandemic economic downturn has accelerated the exodus of professionals – a trend known as ‘Japa’ – as talent seeks stronger currencies and better opportunities abroad.

At the same time, funding cuts, fiscal pressures and climate change are exacerbating insecurity across Africa, driving illegal migration. Given geographic proximity, much of this movement flows into Europe, creating further political tensions. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires Europe to rethink its migration policies.

Rachel Rizzo, a fellow of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, told ISS Today that front-line countries like Italy were toeing a much tougher line on migration from Africa, while also implementing new policies like the Mattei Plan. This plan aims to transform Italy into an energy hub between North Africa and Europe.

She notes the two issues are interlinked so it will be interesting to watch in other European countries how ‘migration management’ starts to meld with broader economic and trade policies towards Africa.

Africa’s digital landscape is poised at a critical juncture. With a burgeoning population and a growing consumer base, the continent’s potential as a tech market is undeniable. However, its digital infrastructure and skills remain underdeveloped, making it vulnerable to exploitation in the US-China-dominated global tech race.

While the US leads in software and China in hardware, Europe has an opportunity to differentiate itself as a trusted partner for Africa. By supporting the development of African digital infrastructure and skills training, Europe can help integrate Africa into the global digital economy on fairer terms.

Collaborating on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence offers mutual benefits: ensuring Africa’s participation while guarding against exploitation and overreach by global powers.

Mandira Bagwandeen of Stellenbosch University highlights the significance of projects like the AU-EU Digital for Development Hub, noting that they “have contributed to deepening collaborations between the two regions and strengthened networks between various actors in Africa and Europe’s digital sectors.”

She says, “Through high-level dialogues, exchanges, and workshops, the project facilitated knowledge and technology transfers, contributing to Africa’s digital development and transformation.”

These initiatives demonstrate Europe’s potential to support Africa’s digital ambitions. However, existing EU-Africa innovation programmes must be revitalised to create tangible opportunities for African entrepreneurs and businesses.

Europe’s regulatory strengths, exemplified by the General Data Protection Regulation, position it well to champion digital sovereignty for Africa, helping the continent protect its data and digital infrastructure from exploitative practices.

The stakes for Europe and Africa could not be higher. An economically vibrant Africa unlocks immense opportunities for Europe, from new markets and cheaper imports to a steady supply of workers that can offset demographic decline. Conversely, Africa’s economic failure would exacerbate Europe’s challenges, including migration pressures and economic stagnation.
Repairing the EU-Africa relationship requires more than policy shifts; it demands a change in tone. Europe’s engagement with Africa has often been marred by patronising attitudes and virtue signalling.

African leaders, increasingly assertive and strategic, reject outdated notions of charity and demand genuine partnerships. Lingering resentment over vaccine hoarding, the framing of the Ukraine war, climate double standards, and travel bans have only deepened the divide.

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Europe’s future is inextricably linked to Africa’s. A recalibrated relationship, built on mutual respect and shared objectives, is equally beneficial and opportune given the current context. It is also an effective de-risking strategy for both continents, given their respective challenges.

Ronak Gopaldas, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Consultant and Signal Risk Director

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).