FACT-CHECK: How true are Tinubu’s Independence Day economic claims

On Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu addressed Nigerians to mark the 65th anniversary of the country’s independence.

The president declared that the economy was on a recovery path, with his reforms of the last two years delivering “tangible results.”

He listed 12 “remarkable economic milestones,” including GDP growth, improved reserves, revenue expansion and declining inflation.

PREMIUM TIMES reviewed some of the claims against official data and expert sources.

Below are our findings:

1. CLAIM: The second quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.23 per cent, Nigeria’s fastest pace in four years.

VERIFICATION: To test this claim, PREMIUM TIMES reviewed Nigeria’s GDP quarterly growth rates in the last four years.

NBS data shows GDP grew 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025, the highest quarterly growth since 2021.

Nigeria last recorded a GDP growth rate above 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded by 5.01 per cent.

The latest figures are higher than those recorded in Q1 2025 (3.13 per cent) and 2024 (Q4: 3.84 per cent; Q3: 3.46 per cent; Q2: 3.19 per cent; Q1: 2.98 per cent).

In 2023, GDP growth stood at Q4: 3.46 per cent; Q3: 2.54 per cent; Q2: 2.51 per cent; and Q1: 2.31 per cent.

For 2022, the growth rates were Q4: 3.52 per cent; Q3: 2.25 per cent; Q2: 3.54 per cent; and Q1: 3.11 per cent.

Meanwhile, in 2021, the economy grew by 3.98 per cent in Q4, 4.03 per cent in Q3 and 5.01 per cent in Q2.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

2. CLAIM: Inflation declined to 20.12 per cent in August 2025, the lowest level in three years.

VERIFICATION: The NBS reported that inflation declined to 20.12 per cent in August 2025.

Checks by PREMIUM TIMES also show that since August 2022, Nigeria has not recorded a monthly inflation rate lower than 20.12 per cent, according to the NBS. The last time Nigeria’s year-on-year headline inflation rate fell below 20.12 per cent before August 2025 was in July 2022, when it stood at 19.64 per cent.

This means the August 2025 rate is the lowest in three years.

However, the relatively low inflation figure must be put in the proper context. Nigeria rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January, which reduced the country’s inflation from 34.80 per cent last December to 24.48 per cent in January before dropping to 20.12 per cent in August. The inflation figure may, thus, not have been that low if the rebasing had not been done.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: NBS

3. CLAIM: Nigeria has a stronger foreign Reserve position than three years ago. Our external reserves increased to $42.03 billion this September—the highest since 2019.

VERIFICATION: CBN data show Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $42.03 billion as of September 19. Before then, the last time reserves exceeded this figure was on September 26, 2019, when they hit $42.05 billion, according to the CBN’s reserves dashboard.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: CBN

4. CLAIM: Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has risen to 13.5 per cent from less than 10 per cent.

VERIFICATION: On 1 June 2023, the FIRS reported that Nigeria’s Tax-to-GDP ratio was 10.86 per cent. The figure is now 13.5 per cent, according to the tax agency.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: FIRS, Premium Times

5. CLAIM: Mr Tinubu said Nigeria has recorded a trade surplus for five consecutive quarters. “Nigeria’s trade surplus increased by 44.3 per cent in Q2 2025 to N7.46 trillion ($4.74 billion). Goods manufactured in Nigeria and exported jumped by 173 per cent,” the president said.

VERIFICATION: Nigeria’s trade surplus rose by 44.3 per cent in Q2 2025, reaching N7.46 trillion ($4.74 billion) — the fifth consecutive quarterly surplus.

In Q1 2024, exports stood at N19.1 trillion, accounting for 60.25 per cent of total trade, and exceeded imports, resulting in a surplus. The trend continued in Q2 2024, when exports rose slightly to N19.4 trillion, again outpacing imports.

By Q3 2024, Nigeria recorded a surplus of N5.8 trillion, with exports of N20.4 trillion against imports of N14.67 trillion. In Q4 2024, the surplus narrowed to N3.43 trillion, as exports reached N20.01 trillion but remained higher than imports, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The positive balance persisted into 2025. In Q1 this year, the country recorded a surplus of N5.17 trillion (exports N20.59 trillion; imports N15.4 trillion). This widened further in Q2 2025 to N7.46 trillion, representing a 44.3 per cent increase from the previous quarter.

NBS data shows that the last time Nigeria recorded a trade deficit was between October and December 2023. During that period, Nigeria’s exports totalled N12.69 trillion, and total imports stood at N14.11 trillion, which gives a trade deficit of N1.41 trillion.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: NBS report on Foreign Trade

6. CLAIM: The Nigerian leader said oil production rebounded to 1.68 million barrels per day from barely one million in May 2023.

VERIFICATION: In September, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s daily production of crude oil rose to 1.68 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil output was 1.1 million barrels per day in May 2023 and 998,602 in April 2023.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: NBS

7. CLAIM: Mr Tinubu said coal mining recovered dramatically from a 22 per cent decline in Q1 to 57.5 per cent growth in Q2, becoming one of Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors.

VERIFICATION: According to the NBS GDP report, coal mining declined by 22.2 per cent in Q1 2025.

However, the Q2 2025 report published in September shows a sharp rebound, with coal mining growing by 57.53 per cent after three consecutive quarters of decline. During the same period, quarrying rose by 45.86 per cent, while metal ores contracted by 6.96 per cent.

Overall, mining and quarrying expanded by 20.86 per cent in Q2 2025, compared with 7.51 per cent in Q2 2024 and 1.87 per cent in Q1 2025.

These activities increased the sector’s contribution to GDP to 4.23 per cent, up from 3.64 per cent a year earlier, according to NBS data.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: NBS

8. CLAIM: President Tinubu said sovereign credit rating agencies have upgraded their outlook for Nigeria, recognising our improved economic fundamentals. Our stock market is experiencing an unprecedented boom, rising from an all-share index of 55,000 points in May 2023 to 142,000 points as of September 26, 2025.

READ ALSO: Nigeria @ 65: Tinubu declares economic ‘turnaround’, lists 12 milestones

VERIFICATION: PREMIUM TIMES findings show that Nigeria’s sovereign credit profile has improved in 2025, with Fitch upgrading the country’s rating to B from B– on April 11 and Moody’s raising it to B3 from Caa1 on May 30, both with a stable outlook.

Meanwhile, data from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) show that the All-Share Index stood at 55,000 points on May 31, 2023, and climbed to 142,000 points by September 26, 2025, according to the NSE dashboard.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: Moody, Fitch Ratings, and NSE

9. CLAIM: President Tinubu said the Central Bank slashed interest rates for the first time in five years, expressing confidence in our country’s macroeconomic stability.

VERIFICATION: Checks by PREMIUM TIMES show that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria indeed reduced the country’s Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 27.00 per cent, the first cut since 2020.

The last time the CBN cut its benchmark interest rate was in September 2020, when it lowered the Monetary Policy Rate from 12.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.

VERDICT: TRUE

Source: CBN