In my view, all the president needs to do now and do strongly is seize the momentum, galvanise the rump of the Congress for Progressives Change elements that believe in him and those of other alliance partners in the North and South of the country, and assume full leadership of the Tinubu-Buhari alliance that produced the APC and produced Buhari and himself as presidents.
As if blessed with clairvoyance or possibly having a premonition of President Muhammadu Buhari’s imminent death, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mr Boss Mustapha, seemed to have stirred up the debate around the former president’s political strength and likely impact on the 2027 election, even in death.
On Wednesday, 9 July, just four days before Buhari’s death, the former SGF claimed President Bola Tinubu did not make Buhari president in 2015. He was speaking at the public presentation of a book, titled According to the President: Lessons From A Presidential Spokesman’s Experience, written by Mallam Garba Shehu, spokesman to the late Buhari.
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In his keynote address at the book launch, Mustapha argued that the former president’s fame was never in doubt and that he already had over 12 million votes in his kitty before the 2015 election. “The merger of the legacy parties merely contributed three million votes to his victory at the 2015 presidential election,” he noted.
To speak of the true motive behind such a claim or whether the 12 million votes endured would only be conjectural. Yet, it begs the question: If Buhari had always had a guaranteed bloc of 12 million votes, and the alliance partners contributed only three million votes, many would wonder why those massive votes didn’t make him president in 2003, 2007, and 2011 until President Tinubu and others teamed up with him to form an alliance that produced the all–conquering All Progressives Congress (APC).
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This might have been akin to dissipating energy on a matter that would have been merely academic if the late President himself had not often acknowledged President Tinubu’s help in his ascent to the exalted office. Last 29 March, in a telephone call to the president on his 73rd birthday, Buhari rejoiced with him and thanked Tinubu effusively for his contributions to his emergence as president in 2015.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, the former SGF’s assertion provides a valuable insight into assessing the potential influence the former president’s death may have on the 2027 election.
Former President Buhari lived a remarkable life by every measure, and his departure in a blaze of glory was no less extraordinary. President Tinubu accorded him a historic state burial. In the wake of Buhari’s demise on Sunday, 13 July, in a London hospital, President Tinubu declared seven days of national mourning and ordered the nation’s flag flown at half-staff. The president was on hand to receive Buhari’s body as it arrived in Katsina from the United Kingdom. Just as significant, the Federal Government declared a public holiday on Tuesday, 15 July, when Buhari’s remains were buried in his Daura hometown in Katsina State.
President Tinubu led dignitaries, including President Umaru Sissoco Embaló of Guinea-Bissau; Prime Minister of the Niger Republic, Ali Lamine Zeine; Vice President Kashim Shettima; former President of the Niger Republic, Issoufou Mahamadou; former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; many Nigerian governors and business leaders, to escort the late president’s remains on the long drive to Daura. They witnessed as the former president was laid to rest.
No honour would be too much for that late patriot, civil war hero, distinguished army general, and former president, who stood for the Talakawas. Many Nigerians respected Buhari for living a Spartan life and standing for truth and justice, values that earned him the sobriquet, “Mai Gaskiya.”
How will President Buhari’s death impact the politics of the 2027 election and President Tinubu’s re-election, with the opposition swirling around him, baying for blood? It is yet unclear. Indeed, in the run-up to the 2027 election, some analysts liken former President Buhari’s death to a double-edged sword that can cut both ways. They contend that the impact of his demise on the 2027 election can swing for and against President Tinubu. Those who think his passing may chip away at the president’s re-election plans contend that Buhari remained a true and consistent ally of Tinubu till death, and that the partnership between the two, built on mutual trust and respect, had remained strong until Buhari’s passing. Buhari never spoke against Tinubu or his administration while alive. The former president reportedly commended Tinubu for having the courage to make bold decisions about the economy, which he had found difficult to implement.
There was nothing to suggest that Buhari would not have backed Tinubu in 2027 if he were still alive, given that he had consistently emphasised his indebtedness to the APC, which provided the platform that enabled him to become president, and Tinubu, who assisted him on his presidential journey.
Perhaps realising this Tinubu-Buhari connection, opposition political figures, particularly members of the so-called coalition, African Democratic Congress, including politicians from the North who still regard themselves as Buharists or Buhari Boys, desperately sought to outdo each other in a bid to earn cheap political capital, using Buhari’s death as fodder.
Barely a day after Buhari’s death was announced, former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai, arrived in Katsina to position himself as a foremost Buhari ally and the inheritor of his political dynasty. Former Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi also arrived in Daura, fully draped in a turban, as a traditional chief of the town, to gain an advantage for the coalition.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar organised a grand entry into Daura on Tuesday, the day of Buhari’s burial. A motley crowd of his supporters cheered him at the airport, but it was all of no moment, rather gaudy for the sombre event. For effect, some of the opposition figures headed for Buhari’s graveside last Wednesday to pray for the repose of his soul.
Buhari’s death appears to have opened up the leadership space in the North. And no political leader in the North today commands that extraordinary following, as Buhari did. With his passing, a rat race has ensued for leadership supremacy. This situation somewhat plays to President Tinubu’s advantage, despite the suggestion that it may hurt him politically. Indeed, this is by no means glossing over the huge void and the pains that the statesman’s death has left.
President Tinubu has taken the proper steps to give the former president a befitting burial. In order to further immortalise his name, he named the University of Maiduguri in Borno State after Buhari. The president did all that for a leader who served the country resolutely and a political ally who stood by the spirit and letter of their convictions.
In my view, all the president needs to do now and do strongly is seize the momentum, galvanise the rump of the Congress for Progressives Change elements that believe in him and those of other alliance partners in the North and South of the country, and assume full leadership of the Tinubu-Buhari alliance that produced the APC and produced Buhari and himself as presidents.
Tunde Rahman is senior assistant to the President on Media and Special Duties.
