In Nigeria, a nation of 230 million people grappling with economic turmoil and persistent insecurity, a new political force is rising.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition of opposition heavyweights including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party star Peter Obi, has set its sights on a bold mission: unseating the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
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With President Bola Tinubu’s administration facing mounting criticism over its economic reforms and unfulfilled promises, the opposition senses an opportunity. But in a country where political machinery, regional loyalties, and voter apathy often dictate outcomes, can this coalition rewrite Nigeria’s political script?
A coalition born of necessity
The ADC coalition, formally launched in late 2024, is a response to the opposition’s failures in the 2023 elections, where disunity among Atiku, Mr Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso handed Mr Tinubu an easy victory.
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Learning from that misstep, the coalition has brought together a diverse cast of political players, including disaffected APC stalwarts like Nasir El-Rufai and Rotimi Amaechi. Led by interim chairman David Mark, a former Senate President, and secretary Rauf Aregbesola, the ADC aims to present a united front against an APC that has dominated Nigeria’s political landscape since 2015.
The coalition’s formation is a high-stakes gamble. Nigeria’s opposition has historically struggled with infighting and defections, and the APC, under Mr Tinubu’s deft political maneuvering, has mastered the art of exploiting these weaknesses. Yet, the ADC’s architects are betting on a different outcome, drawing inspiration from the APC’s own playbook in 2015, when a united opposition toppled the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) after 16 years in power.
“We are not just a coalition of politicians,” Mr Mark declared at a recent rally in Abuja. “We are a movement to rescue Nigeria from misrule and restore hope.”
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The APC’s vulnerabilities
The ADC’s optimism is fueled by the APC’s struggles. Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu’s government has implemented sweeping economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the flotation of the naira. While these measures were touted as necessary to stabilize Nigeria’s economy, they have triggered soaring inflation—reaching 34% in mid-2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics—and a cost-of-living crisis that has left millions struggling. “People can’t afford food, fuel, or school fees,” says Aisha Musa, a market trader in Lagos. “We voted for change in 2023, but this is not what we expected.”
Security, a cornerstone of the APC’s 2015 campaign, remains another Achilles’ heel. Banditry in the North-west, Boko Haram in the North-east, and separatist tensions in the South-east continue to plague the country. A 2025 report by SBM Intelligence estimates that over 10,000 Nigerians have been killed in violent incidents since Mr Tinubu took office, undermining the APC’s claim of progress. The opposition has seized on these failures, with Atiku accusing the government of “abandoning Nigerians to hunger and violence.”
Crafting a winning strategy
To capitalize on public discontent, the ADC is building a multi-pronged strategy that blends grassroots mobilization with a sophisticated policy platform. At its core is a commitment to unity, a lesson learned from the 2023 debacle. “We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past,” says Peter Obi, whose “Obidient” movement galvanized young voters in 2023.
The coalition is working to select a single presidential candidate by mid-2026, likely from the South to honor Nigeria’s unwritten North-South rotational presidency agreement. Obi, with his appeal to urban youth and the middle class, is a frontrunner, though Atiku’s experience and northern influence make him a strong contender.
The coalition’s policy agenda is designed to resonate with Nigeria’s diverse electorate. On the economy, the ADC promises targeted subsidies for essential goods, job creation programs for youth, and tax incentives for small businesses. To address security, it proposes reforming the police, investing in intelligence, and launching community policing initiatives. Infrastructure, a perennial issue, is another focus, with plans for expanded rail networks and renewable energy projects to bridge Nigeria’s urban-rural divide. “Our message is simple: security, prosperity, and progress,” says Mr Aregbesola. “We will deliver where the APC has failed.”
Mobilising the grassroots
The ADC’s success hinges on its ability to mobilise Nigeria’s 93 million registered voters, many of whom stayed home in 2023, when turnout was a dismal 27%. The coalition is launching voter registration drives across all 774 Local Government Areas, targeting youth and first-time voters. Social media, particularly platforms like X, is a key battleground, with the “Obidient” movement amplifying the coalition’s message to millions. “The youth are Nigeria’s future,” says Chidinma Okeke, a 24-year-old activist in Port Harcourt. “We’re tired of empty promises. The ADC speaks to us.”
To counter the APC’s control of state resources, the ADC is training thousands of polling agents to monitor the 2027 elections and prevent rigging, a concern that marred the 2023 polls. The coalition is also engaging traditional and religious leaders, particularly in the North, where the APC’s grip remains strong. “We’re building bridges, not walls,” says Mr Mark, emphasizing the need for inclusivity in a country divided by ethnicity and religion.
The Tinubu challenge
The APC, however, is no easy foe. Mr Tinubu, a political strategist par excellence, has weathered storms before.
His administration has dismissed the ADC as a “coalition of retired politicians without electoral value,” and the APC’s access to state resources gives it a formidable edge. Defections, a hallmark of Nigerian politics, remain a threat: the APC has already lured several opposition figures since 2023. To counter this, the ADC is offering clear leadership roles and policy influence to keep its members loyal.
The coalition is also pushing for electoral reforms to strengthen the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which faced allegations of bias in 2023. By advocating transparent voter accreditation and result transmission, the ADC aims to level the playing field. “We will not allow the will of the people to be stolen again,” Obi told a crowd in Enugu.
Funding the fight
Money is another critical factor. The APC’s deep pockets, bolstered by state patronage, give it a financial advantage. The ADC is countering this with aggressive fundraising, targeting both domestic supporters and Nigeria’s influential diaspora. Its online portal for diaspora engagement has already registered thousands of supporters, who are contributing funds and ideas. The coalition is also wooing the private sector, promising a business-friendly environment to attract investors wary of the APC’s economic volatility.
A glimpse of 2015?
The ADC’s strategy echoes the APC’s 2015 campaign, when a united opposition, a charismatic candidate (Muhammadu Buhari), and a message of change toppled the PDP. But Nigeria in 2027 is not Nigeria in 2015.
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The APC’s political machinery, Mr Tinubu’s strategic acumen, and the opposition’s own history of disunity pose significant hurdles. “The APC is wounded, but it’s not dead,” says political analyst Tunde Rahman. “The opposition must stay disciplined and deliver a message that resonates.”
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria stands at crossroads. The ADC coalition, with its blend of seasoned politicians and fresh voices, has a chance to redefine the country’s future. But success will require more than ambition—it will demand unity, strategy, and an unrelenting focus on the Nigerian people. “This is our moment,”Mr Obi told supporters in Lagos. “We must seize it, or Nigeria will pay the price for another four years.”
Dr Shehu is an Abuja-based writer, educator and activist.
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