Nigeria, state capture and the implications on 2027 elections, By Uche Igwe

State capture manifests as a collision between narrow political and economic interest groups, leading to a skewed distribution of economic power, while giving captors an advantage in shaping power dynamics. Elections become hollow rituals, reforms are cosmetic, and citizens find themselves living in states that look like democracies on paper but which actually function like cartels.

An interesting trend is going on in Nigeria in the name of democracy. Many observers have noticed it, but analysts and activists have either dismissed it or have not taken sufficient notice of it. It is pervasive, progressive, and at times subtle. The outcome of the 2027 elections has been taken as a fait accompli. Almost all government agencies are acting as if they are under instructions to protect the ruling party’s interests and clamp down on the opposition. This is why a section of the citizenry is said to be quickly resorting to hopelessness and losing faith in their democracy. Almost everyone believes that their votes will not count. They have lost complete trust and confidence in their institutions – be they police, electoral institutions, anti-corruption agencies, and even the judiciary. The phenomenon is akin to what is known as state capture.

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State capture is a deeper, more systemic form of corruption in which a narrow group of political elites or private-interest groups manipulates a nation’s laws, policies, and institutions to serve its own interests, rather than the public’s. Yet this phenomenon is not new in Africa or unique to the continent. A classic case was South Africa under former President Jacob Zuma, when he had an infamous relationship with the Gupta family. It also happened in Zambia under late former President Edgar Lungu and is currently happening in Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni.

Nigeria has recently witnessed features synonymous with captured states, including the corrosion of democratic structures, the dismantling of checks and balances, including judicial independence, and the auctioning of the parliament. The Nigerian National Assembly under Senate President Akpabio has become an enabler of executive recklessness, rather than providing any form of resistance or scrutiny. Agents of the ruling party have connived with the judiciary to disrupt opposition political structures and poison the democratic space. Anti-corruption processes have been consistently weaponised, targeting key opposition figures and fuelling widespread distrust, apathy, disillusionment, and anger. These narrow interest groups invade the institutions and processes that make public policy to consolidate and entrench their hold on political power.

A wave of political violence is spreading in a calculated attempt to instil fear among the citizens. During the just-concluded elections in Osun State, 29 persons were allegedly murdered. Recently, a prominent social media influencer known for criticising the government, Ibrahim Khalil, was killed at his residence in Gaida Quarters in Kano State.

There are clear similarities between what is happening in Uganda and the unfolding developments in Nigeria. In 2025, Uganda’s military chief and son of President Yoweri Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, reportedly threatened to castrate and behead opposition leader Bobi Wine. Members of Nigeria’s ruling party have continued to threaten members of the public as the elections approach. Sainna Buba, a serving commissioner in Borno State, reportedly threatened to cut off the fingers of those who do not vote for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state. Just as Danjuma Shekwolo, chairman of Kuje Area Council in the Federal Capital Territory, warned residents to either vote for the ruling APC or leave the council. A wave of political violence is spreading in a calculated attempt to instil fear among the citizens. During the just-concluded elections in Osun State, 29 persons were allegedly murdered. Recently, a prominent social media influencer known for criticising the government, Ibrahim Khalil, was killed at his residence in Gaida Quarters in Kano State.

State capture manifests as a collision between narrow political and economic interest groups, leading to a skewed distribution of economic power, while giving captors an advantage in shaping power dynamics. Elections become hollow rituals, reforms are cosmetic, and citizens find themselves living in states that look like democracies on paper but which actually function like cartels. State captors divert resources away from citizens, distort economic decision-making, weaken public services, increase inequality, undermine the rule of law, weaken accountability, and erode public trust. These state captors deploy the resources they accumulate to buy votes and compromise electoral officers and security agencies during elections.

Captors and their agents invest heavily in the media. By owning several media platforms, often through proxies, they seek to control narratives, promote favourable propaganda and suppress dissenting voices. They sponsor civil society groups who masquerade as activists, while acting as appendages that promote the views of these entrenched private interests.

State capture in Nigeria includes an interesting component worthy of attention. Captors and their agents invest heavily in the media. By owning several media platforms, often through proxies, they seek to control narratives, promote favourable propaganda and suppress dissenting voices. They sponsor civil society groups who masquerade as activists, while acting as appendages that promote the views of these entrenched private interests. The central aim of these captors is to conspire with collaborators inside and outside government to redirect state resources to serve their own interests – to gain control of political order.

State capture is the enemy of clean government and democracy itself. In Lagos State today, the long-standing oligarchic influence of the Tinubu political machinery controls public revenue generation through state institutions and diverse patronage networks. His supporters often claim that he is coming to Abuja to replicate what he did in Lagos at the national level. After three years in office, the cancer of state capture is already eating deep into the tissues of our national life. The 2027 elections offer citizens an opportunity to either disrupt the ongoing invasion or prepare to hand over the soul of our nation to a parasitic club of private interests.