ANALYSIS: Osun’s 1.9 million voters and the LGAs that may decide the election

Osun has 2,339,233 registered voters, out of which 1,906,3,90, who collected the Permanent Voters Card (PVC) are eligible to vote in Saturday’s governorship election.

But the size of the register alone does not show where the election could be decided.

The more revealing question is where those voters are concentrated, how many are likely to turn up and what margins the candidates can build in those areas.

INEC’s figures show that Osogbo has the largest electorate in the state, with 167,704 registered voters, representing 7.17 per cent of the total register.

Ife East follows with 128,515 voters, or 5.50 per cent, while Olorunda has 123,063, representing 5.26 per cent. Ife Central has another 122,454 voters, or 5.24 per cent.

Iwo has 106,813 registered voters, representing 4.57 per cent of the state’s electorate. Irewole has 96,528 (4.13 per cent), while Ifelodun has 94,870 (4.06 per cent).

10 LGAs with the largest voter populations account for 1,113,813 registered voters, or 47.6 per cent of the entire register.

That means nearly half of Osun’s registered voters are concentrated in just 10 of the state’s 30 LGAs.

A large register is only potential electoral strength. PVC collection, mobilisation, turnout and the margin each candidate secures will determine how much of that potential becomes actual votes.

INEC said the number of registered voters in Osun rose from 1,954,800 to 2,339,233, an increase of 384,433 voters. But the commission noted that 322,822 newly registered voters had collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), representing 62 per cent, before it extended the collection deadline to 31 July.

The figures provide an important qualification to the size of the electorate. A large number of registered voters can give an LGA considerable electoral weight. Still, that weight ultimately depends on how many voters turn up on election day.

The 2022 election provides some useful background, but Saturday’s contest is a different political race.
Ademola Adeleke won the 2022 governorship election with a margin of 28,344 votes against the then incumbent, Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

This time, Mr Adeleke is seeking another term; the APC is fielding Bola Oyebamiji, while Najeem Salaam is contesting on the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). There are 11 other candidates on the ballot.

So, how is the current distribution of voters likely to shape the 2026 contest?

Ede: a sizeable voting bloc

Ede North has 96,644 registered voters, while Ede South has 67,729.

Together, the two LGAs have 164,373 registered voters, about seven per cent of Osun’s electorate.
That makes Ede one of the state’s important voting blocs.

For Mr Adeleke, the area he hails from carries particular political significance. But the size of the electorate also gives the APC and ADC an incentive to compete for votes there.

What matters on Saturday will be the turnout and the margin each candidate can secure.

Osogbo and Olorunda: more than 290,000 voters

Osogbo has the largest number of registered voters in the state — 167,704, or 7.17 per cent of the total.
Olorunda has another 123,063, representing 5.26 per cent.

Together, the two LGAs in the state capital have 290,767 registered voters, or 12.4 per cent of Osun’s entire register.

That gives the state capital one of the largest concentrations of voters in the election.

The decisive figure could be the eventual margin between the leading candidates after votes are counted.

If turnout is high and the race is closely contested, even a few thousand votes gained or lost in these two LGAs could affect the statewide calculation.

Ife: more than 317,000 registered voters

The three Ife LGAs — Ife East, Ife Central and Ife South — have a combined 317,224 registered voters, about 13.6 per cent of the state’s electorate.

Ife East has 128,515 voters, Ife Central 122,454 and Ife South 66,255.

That makes the Ife axis one of the largest voter concentrations in Osun.

A strong voter turnout could give Ife a great influence on the final result.

Iwo: 106,813 registered voters

Iwo has 106,813 registered voters, representing 4.57 per cent of the state’s electorate.

It is the fifth-largest LGA by voter population.

Ijesa axis: 332,473 voters

The Ijesa axis also commands a substantial voting population.

Ilesa East has 89,491 registered voters, Ilesa West 86,699, Atakumosa East 47,767, Atakumosa West 44,076 and Obokun 64,440.

Together, the five LGAs have 332,473 registered voters, representing about 14.2 per cent of Osun’s entire register.

That is a large enough voting bloc for the candidates to pay close attention to the area.

The medium-sized LGAs matter too

The election will not be decided only in the biggest voter centres.

Irewole has 96,528 registered voters, Ifelodun 94,870 and Ejigbo 87,676.

Oriade has 84,283, Odo-Otin 82,574, Boripe 81,067 and Ayedaade 77,649.

Other sizeable electorates include Egbedore with 67,440, Irepodun with 67,131, Ife North with 65,718, Isokan with 65,379 and Obokun with 64,440.

Even the smaller LGAs contribute to the final arithmetic: Orolu has 51,021 registered voters, Atakumosa West 44,076, Ola-Oluwa 44,761 and Boluwaduro 29,797, while Ifedayo has 28,361.

But taken together, the votes from the state’s medium and smaller LGAs could provide the difference in a closely fought election.

Three candidates, different arithmetic

The presence of three major candidates also makes the calculation less straightforward.

Governor Adeleke, Mr Oyebamiji and Mr Salaam do not need to win every large LGA to remain competitive.

What matters is the combination of votes and margins.

A candidate could lose a large LGA narrowly and remain competitive, while a heavy defeat in another area could create a gap that becomes difficult to recover elsewhere.

The ADC’s performance could also influence the race even without winning a large number of LGAs.

If Mr Salaam attracts substantial support in areas where Mr Adeleke and Mr Oyebamiji are closely matched, his votes could alter the margin between the two leading candidates.

That makes the distribution of votes more important than simply the statewide total.

The register is only the starting point

Some registered voters may not vote. Others may have registered in places where they no longer live. The number who actually turn up, and where they turn up, could therefore change the weight of the figures considerably.

There is also a constitutional requirement beyond securing the highest number of votes.
A governorship candidate must obtain the highest number of votes and at least one-quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of the LGAs.

With 30 LGAs in Osun, that means meeting the one-quarter threshold in at least 20 LGAs.

So the candidates cannot concentrate entirely on the state’s biggest voter centres.

They need both numbers and geographical spread.

That is the central calculation behind Saturday’s election.

Osogbo’s 167,704 voters matter. So do Ife East’s 128,515, Olorunda’s 123,063, Ife Central’s 122,454 and Iwo’s 106,813.

But the smaller LGAs matter too.

The winner will ultimately be the candidate who can turn support across enough of those areas into actual votes — and build a statewide margin large enough to finish ahead.

What the experts say

Development consultant and public affairs analyst Jide Ojo said the increase in Osun’s voter register was not surprising, given the registration exercises conducted since the last governorship election.

But he noted that the distribution of voters across the state deserved more attention.

Mr Ojo identified Ede North and Ede South as particularly important to Adeleke because of his strong performance there in 2022.

He also pointed to Osogbo, Olorunda, the three Ife LGAs, Atakumosa East and West, Obokun and the wider Ijesa axis.

He does not expect a landslide.

“I don’t expect that any of the candidates, whoever will win, will have a landslide victory,” he said, predicting that the final margin could be between 20,000 and 30,000 votes or even less.

If that prediction is close to the final result, relatively small changes in the larger LGAs could determine the winner.

Legal practitioner and public affairs analyst Liborous Oshoma told PREMIUM TIMES that candidates must also look beyond the biggest voter centres because of the constitutional requirement for geographical spread.

“You must concentrate on having a spread, and then you begin to look at where the population is, where you would get more numbers to add to your numbers,” Mr Oshoma said.

Ezenwa Nwagwu, co-convener of the Say No Campaign and Executive Director of the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA), cautioned against using the voter register as a substitute for turnout.

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“There is voter apathy. There is voter turnout. They don’t mean the same thing,” he said.

Mr Nwagwu said people could register and still stay away because of fear, intimidation, their perception of government or the influence of money in elections.

He also pointed to students and other residents who may be registered in an area but be elsewhere on election day.

He urged political parties, security agencies and INEC to ensure that voters can participate freely.

“The executive agencies must be professional and impartial. INEC must follow its own regulations and ensure that everyone is given the opportunity to cast their votes without let or hindrance,” he stated.