Experts speak on what Oyedele’s appointment means for Nigerian economy

Economic experts have outlined their expectations about the direction of Nigeria’s economy following the appointment of a new Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, citing his background and track record as key strengths likely to shape his performance in the ministry.

The presidency approved the removal of Wale Edun as finance minister in a minor cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday, and Mr Oyedele was appointed to head the finance ministry.

The newly appointed minister’s journey started with his appointment as chair of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, which oversaw the Nigerian tax reform that took effect on 1 January.

On 16 March, President Bola Tinubu swore Mr Oyedele in as minister of state for finance, extolling his professionalism in coordinating the work of the Tax Reforms Committee.

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Although Mr Oyedele’s swift elevation to finance minister surprised some observers, experts say the move was pre-planned rather than unexpected.

Relating Mr Oyedele’s previous fiscal experience to his new role, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Muda Yusuf, said the finance minister is well-positioned to address key fiscal and economic challenges Nigeria has faced in recent years, including budget releases, debt, and deficits.

Mr Yusuf noted that the minister has developed deep insight into government fiscal operations over time, adding that managing the finance ministry, largely about understanding fiscal systems and ensuring efficiency, would not be difficult for him.

“He is a total professional. And you know the President has worked with him on this tax issue, this tax reform. And it’s not only tax, but it’s also fiscal reform. There is no doubt that he has impressed the President, and not only the President, but he has also impressed many people in the way he was able to deliver on this responsibility. It was a major assignment, and he discharged it very well.

“Over the last one or two years, we have had issues, particularly on the fiscal side, issues of budget releases, debt, and deficits. These are very challenging issues. Because he is a finance man, and of course, the President is also a finance man.

“I think the strength he will bring will be in finance, proper budgeting, managing debt, and overseeing fiscal operations, and more importantly, supervising the implementation of tax reform. All of these are related to achieving fiscal consolidation,” he said.

The economist added that revenue mobilisation has been a major challenge for the Bola Tinubu administration in recent years, noting that Mr Oyedele has the capacity to manage that area effectively.

Mr Yusuf, a former Director General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, further stated that with presidential backing and institutional support within the ministry, the new minister is likely to perform his duties with fewer constraints.

On Nigeria’s trade, agriculture, energy earnings, and investment relations, he said the minister would need to work closely with other economic ministries to ensure effective policy outcomes.

“As for fiscal policy, that may not be exactly his strongest area, but the ministry has resources and competent hands with knowledge of tariffs and fiscal policy who can support him.

“It’s not that he lacks knowledge, but he will rely on that support. More importantly, I believe the president brought him in to fix challenges around budgeting and fiscal operations, and I believe he will be able to discharge those responsibilities.

“Fiscal policy issues fall under his ministry, but to design the right policies, he must collaborate with the Nigeria Customs Service, the Ministry of Trade and Investment, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Investment Promotion Commission,” he said.

Mr Yusuf maintained that the primary reason for Mr Oyedele’s appointment is to strengthen Nigeria’s finance, budgeting, and revenue systems, adding that the minister has a strong chance of addressing the country’s rising debt profile.

“That is my reading of the situation. Debt management is also part of this. If finances are managed properly, debt challenges are reduced. If revenue increases, borrowing reduces, and deficits decline. These issues are all connected,” Mr Yusuf said.

He also cautioned against comparing the new minister with his predecessor, Mr Edun, stressing that performance should be assessed independently.

“I would rather assess him based on his own capacity and the direction he brings to the ministry. We will understand more as he begins the work,” he said.

However, Mr Yusuf expressed concern about the political demands of the role, noting that Mr Oyedele, as a technocrat, may face challenges navigating that space.

“The only concern I have is how he will manage the political aspect of the role. He is not a politician; he is a technocrat. But in this role, he will interact with politicians, including members of the National Assembly.

“He will have to defend budgets and be accountable. That political dimension will require guidance and wisdom, and I think he will need support from the President to navigate that environment effectively,” the think tank CEO said.

On his part, an economist and development expert, Aliyu Ilias, described the appointment of minister as a well-planned transition, noting that his prior role prepared him for the position.

Speaking on the development, Mr Ilias, also a partner at CSAL Advisory, said the move appeared deliberate, given Mr Oyedele’s earlier appointment as Minister of State for Finance.

“The appointment is preplanned if you notice. Before he became the minister, he had been Minister of State, and maybe perhaps they gave him room to understudy the ministry. If you look at it, it’s as if it’s planned,” he said.

He added that Oyedele’s background in tax administration positions him strongly for the role, particularly in revenue generation and financial oversight.

“From his record as a tax man, he is known for excellence, and excellence is expected to reflect in his roles, though he is working with a team and a lot of directors and agencies in that ministry who are professionals. So all he needs is to supervise and bring his financial knowledge in tax and revenue,” Mr Ilias said.

According to him, broader fiscal and economic expertise can be built on the new minister’s foundation. However, he pointed to budgeting as a critical area requiring improvement, noting persistent challenges in recent years.

“The issue of fiscal and economic understanding can always arise. If you are a good tax man, you can be a good minister. The only thing he needs to do more is in terms of budgetary allocation, because this government has not done well in terms of budgeting in the past three years. The process always has issues, so he is expected to ensure good budgeting implementation,” the development expert said.

Mr Ilias described budget defence as largely political, suggesting that alignment with the National Assembly would be a key event for the new minister’s future.

The economic expert advised that Mr Oyedele would need to adapt to the political realities of the role, citing recent loan approvals as an example of pre-negotiated outcomes.

“Defending the budget is purely political. If you look at the National Assembly, we have more APC members. So by implication, it’s an APC affair. It’s going to be discussed before the presentation.

“You could see that the last time the Senate approved a loan, it looked like it was already a done deal. It had been discussed before it was presented. That’s why you see that it was very fast.

“I think he only needs to be a political player now that he is in that position. He has to understand that he needs to play politics and relate better. I’m sure he will be guided appropriately to achieve the aim,” Mr Ilias said.

On investment and trade, he expressed confidence that institutional structures would provide continuity, noting that technical support within government remains strong.

The economist further explained that while political engagement is necessary, maintaining professional discipline will be crucial for the new finance minister, Mr Oyedele.

READ ALSO: Oyedele in as Nigerias finance minister, Edun out

“These people who have political portfolios have professionals working for them. The loans they are going to get for the next two or three years have been planned already, so I don’t think he will have issues.

“Perhaps we need a professional in that role that can actually be a bit strict so that politics will not influence the operation that much,” Mr Ilias said.

Mr Oyedele studied at Yaba College of Technology and Oxford Brookes University, with executive training at the London School of Economics, Yale University, Gordon Institute of Business Science, and Harvard Kennedy School.

He spent 22 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), rising to Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader, and currently serves as a professor at Babcock University and a visiting scholar at Lagos Business School.