The movement of former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition platform increasingly viewed as a potential major opposition force against the All Progressive Congress (APC), has increased the tempo of Kano’s politics.
PREMIUM TIMES reported how the defection of the state governor, Abba Yusuf, from the NNPP to the APC on 26 January sent shockwaves through the Kwankwasiyya political movement led by Mr Kwankwaso.
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The governor’s defection, alongside several key figures triggered uncertainty and raised questions about Mr Kwankwaso’s political future. Some observers even suggested that the development could signal the beginning of his political decline.
Mr Yusuf served as commissioner under Mr Kwankwaso between 2011 and 2015.
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Despite Mr Kwankwaso’s move to the ADC, opinions are divided over whether he can regain the political dominance in the state that he wielded in the NNPP.
A Kano resident, Abubakar Iro, told PREMIUM TIMES that he was skeptical about the former governor’s ability to maintain political influence.
“Looking at how difficult it was for Kwankwaso to secure Abba Kabir Yusuf’s victory, after a prolonged legal battle, it will be tough for him to dislodge those in power now, especially after they’ve aligned with Ganduje,” Mr Iro said.
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“I still believe he remains one of the most influential political figures in Kano, but Abba now has performance credentials that voters may consider,” he added.
On Mr Kwankwaso’s presidential ambition, Mr Iro argued that the path appears even more challenging.
“It will be difficult for him to become president. First, he has to secure the ADC ticket, which is not as straightforward as it was in NNPP where he had total control. Even if he gets the ticket, facing Tinubu will be another major hurdle,” he said.
What lies ahead for Kwankwaso in ADC?
Speaking exclusively to PREMIUM TIMES HAUSA in Kano, Ahmad Dukawa, a political scientist at Bayero University, Kano, described Mr Kwankwaso’s prospects within the ADC as “relatively straightforward” given Kano’s political dynamics.
“From all indications, he may not even contest himself,” Mr Dukawa said. “What he is likely to do is back a candidate for the Kano governorship to reclaim political control of the state.”
He expressed confidence that Mr Kwankwaso could replicate his earlier success in installing a governor, as he did with Mr Yusuf.
Who could emerge as ADC’s governorship candidate?
Attention has increasingly shifted to Nasiru Gawuna, APC’s 2023 governorship candidate, who recently defected to the ADC.
PREMIUM TIMES reported that Mr Gawuna visited Mr Kwankwaso at his Miller Road residence several times including a day before joining the opposition party. Mr Kwankwaso personally accompanied him to receive his ADC membership card — a symbolic gesture widely interpreted as an endorsement.
At the event, supporters repeatedly chanted “Kano sai Gawuna” (We vote only for Gawuna in Kano), reinforcing speculation that he may emerge as the party’s governorship candidate in 2027.
Mr Dukawa noted that Mr Gawuna’s defection significantly strengthens ADC’s prospects in Kano.
“He will likely secure either the governorship ticket or the deputy slot as part of a broader strategy to consolidate political strength,” he said.
The political analyst described the emerging ADC structure in Kano to comprise three buildings and distinct blocs, which he metaphorically referred to as “three hearts (murhu uku).”
“First, there is the Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil ADC bloc who introduced the party to Kano. Second, there is the Kwankwasiyya bloc following Kwankwaso’s entry, and finally the Gawuna bloc, which came alongside with other members of the Gandujiyya camp,” he explained.
“The three blocs could produce a formidable political force in Kano,” he added.
Ibrahim Khalil’s bloc
However, questions remain about the role of Ibrahim Khalil, the cleric serving as a face of the ADC in Kano.
With his teeming followers as a religious figure, Mr Khalil is seen by some as a potential contender whose influence could complicate internal party calculations, particularly with Mr Gawuna certain to seek the governorship ticket.
Public sentiment on social media suggests growing support for Mr Gawuna’s candidature. However, some argue that Mr Khalil’s religious influence could enhance his own potential.
Yet, others believe Mr Kwankwaso is unlikely to favour a religious figure in such a political arrangement, given his long-standing reluctance to merge religion with partisan politics.
‘Performance as governor doesn’t determine electoral victory in Kano’ – Dubawa
A key debate emerging in Kano is whether Governor Yusuf’s performance in office could secure him re-election in 2027.
Mr Dukawa expressed reservations about this assumption.
“Without doubt, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf can point to tangible achievements,” he said. “However, history shows that performance alone does not determine electoral success in Kano.”
He cited past electoral outcomes to support his argument.
“Kwankwaso lost re-election during his first tenure not because he didn’t perform. Shekarau completed two terms, yet his party lost — not due to lack of performance. Similarly, Ganduje was defeated in 2023 despite his record in office,” he noted.
According to Mr Dukawa, the decisive factor in Kano politics is the strength of opposition forces.
“Elections here are driven by the intensity of political contestation. A strong opposition can unseat an incumbent regardless of performance,” he said.
He concluded that electoral outcomes ultimately depend on voter alignment and mobilisation.
“In the end, it is the ballot that settles everything. Securing the support of the electorate remains the most critical factor in Kano politics,” Mr Dukawa said.
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