Only 9.5% of Nigerian pupils reach minimum learning proficiency

A new report on learning outcomes across Africa has revealed that only 9.5 per cent of Nigerian pupils reach the minimum proficiency level in reading and mathematics by the end of primary school.

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The report, National Primary-Level Learning Proficiency Statistics from Africa, analysed harmonised learning assessment data from 47 African countries and found that learning outcomes across the continent remain critically low despite policy commitments to address the crisis.

Authored by education researcher Martin Gustafsson, the report shows that only 13.4 per cent of pupils enrolled in primary schools across Africa reach the minimum proficiency levels defined under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

However, when children who are not enrolled in school are included in the calculations, the continent-wide proficiency rate drops further to 10.8 per cent, highlighting the scale of the learning crisis.

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Nigeria’s learning gap

The findings place Nigeria among the lower-performing countries on the continent in terms of foundational learning.

According to the data, reading proficiency stands at 12.7 per cent, while mathematics proficiency is significantly lower at 6.3 per cent, suggesting major gaps in core learning skills among pupils.

The report also indicates that Nigeria has struggled to improve learning outcomes as children progress through school significantly.

Compared with several peer countries, Nigerian pupils show slower learning gains between the ages of 7 and 14, raising concerns about the effectiveness of teaching and learning systems across grade levels.

Wide disparities across Africa

Learning outcomes vary significantly across African countries, the report found.

For instance, Kenya recorded a proficiency rate of 31.1 per cent, placing it among the better-performing education systems on the continent.

Reading proficiency in Kenya stands at 25.2 per cent, while mathematics proficiency reaches 36.9 per cent.

In South Africa, learning performance places the country in the eighth decile among African nations, although the report notes that deep inequalities within the education system continue to affect overall outcomes.

Meanwhile, Rwanda reported that 91 per cent of Grade 6 pupils were proficient in mathematics in a national assessment.

However, the report cautions that this figure may overestimate proficiency because the assessment was not fully aligned with international benchmarks.

Early learning critical

The analysis emphasised that learning outcomes in Grade 1 strongly influence pupils’ performance in later years of schooling.

According to the report, proficiency levels in the first year of primary school differ widely across countries and often predict later academic success.

The report also highlighted the impact of non-educational factors on learning outcomes.

For example, evidence from Ethiopia shows that stunted children scored significantly lower in mathematics tests than their non-stunted peers.

These findings suggest that improving early childhood health and early-grade education could play a key role in strengthening learning outcomes across the continent.

Data gaps hinder progress

The report noted that Africa has made progress in measuring learning outcomes, with major assessment programmes now covering countries that represent about 97 per cent of the continent’s children aged five to 14.

However, the author warned that data transparency remains a major challenge. Limited access to assessment data makes it difficult for independent researchers to verify results or conduct deeper analysis.

Large regional assessment programmes such as PASEC and SACMEQ are considered important tools for measuring learning outcomes, but the report says restricted access to their datasets reduces opportunities for quality control and policy learning.

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Call for stronger monitoring

The report stated that improving learning outcomes across Africa will require stronger education monitoring systems and greater transparency in learning assessments.

It also called for governments to move beyond focusing mainly on school enrolment and instead prioritise measurable improvements in learning outcomes, particularly in the early grades.

Without stronger monitoring systems and targeted investments in foundational learning, the report warns that Africa may struggle to achieve the African Union’s goal of ending learning poverty by 2035.