NIES 2026: How NNPC plans to stabilise fuel supply, unlock Africa’s gas potential

The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), Bayo Ojulari, has revealed that the company’s multi-layered strategy over the next two to three years will prioritise fuel availability and refinery partnerships as part of its broader reform agenda, amid long-standing structural challenges in Nigeria’s energy sector.

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Mr Ojulari disclosed the company’s focus under his leadership during a fireside chat at the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) on Wednesday, noting that NNPC’s downstream and gas strategy will emphasise operational action rather than policy intent alone.

“What does action look like from an operational, strategic plan? In terms of the narrative of the group, we are pursuing partnerships,” he said.

He confirmed that NNPC is strengthening collaboration with both existing and new refining assets, including condensate refineries, while deepening its relationship with the Dangote Refinery.

“Our partnership with Dangote is strengthened, I can say that for sure, and we’re hoping we’ll be able to leverage that to even expand our downstream business,” he noted.

Mr Ojulari also identified regulatory engagement as a key enabler, citing discussions with the new leadership of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Saidu Mohammed.

“We’ve had some conversations with the new NMDPRA chief, and he has supported us and given us some insightful ideas on how we can make the most of this,” he said.

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Availability Before Pricing

On fuel pricing, the NNPC chief stressed that supply security remains the immediate priority, arguing that prices will stabilise once availability improves.

“Pricing is tricky, but our first focus is to ensure availability. That’s the most important thing,” he said.

According to him, concerns about excess refining capacity are misplaced, as demand extends far beyond Nigeria’s borders.

“Our market should not be focused only on Nigeria. The West African and broader African market is big enough,” he explained.

Mr Ojulari disclosed that over the next three to seven years, NNPC still sees a 20 to 30 per cent capacity gap that can be filled, a reality he said validates continued investment in refining infrastructure.

“Strategically, investing in the refinery is still the right thing to do.”

Between 2022 and early 2025, persistent shortfalls in petrol supply and rising prices — driven largely by the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 by President Bola Tinubu and the subsequent deregulation of the downstream sector — significantly affected Nigeria’s business environment, cost of goods and services, and the broader economy.

The subsidy removal led to petrol price increases, with pump prices in many locations surpassing N1,000 per litre by late 2024. Fuel scarcity also returned to major cities such as Abuja and Lagos, disrupting daily activities and forcing commercial transport operators to raise fares, further eroding household purchasing power.

Some analysts noted that if the country’s state-owned refineries had been functional over the decades, the impact of supply gaps and fuel price volatility on households and businesses would have been far less severe.

While the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery has been a game-changer, ongoing tensions involving regulators and other stakeholders have created uncertainty around petrol supply, pricing, availability and import tariff adjustments.

READ ALSO: How NNPC is rebuilding trust, output, investment confidence— Official

Beyond Refining

On Wednesday, Mr Ojulari cautioned against viewing refining in isolation, calling for a broader industrialisation mindset.

He told investors and delegates at the summit that: “We have to move our minds from just refineries.”

Drawing attention to the Dangote Group’s integrated model, he said: “If you look at Dangote, there are three things — refining, petrochemicals and fertiliser plants.”

Mr Ojulari added that NNPC’s forward strategy aligns with this approach.

“We are not thinking of just refineries. We’re thinking about petrochemicals and doing more fertilisers.”