ANALYSIS: Anambra 2025: How power, money, influence may shape governorship poll

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As the people of Anambra State go to the polls on Saturday to decide who governs them in the next four years, there are indications that the off-cycle governorship election will be more than a test of party strength. The exercise appears to be shaping up as a battle of influence among powerful politicians, wealthy entrepreneurs, and political movements contending to define the future of Anambra’s governance.

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The 16 candidates vying for the election, including the incumbent, Charles Soludo, have taken their campaigns to the nooks and crannies of the 34-year-old state.

The governorship hopefuls are depending on political networks, financiers, and loyal grassroots operatives, the combination of which may determine who occupies the Government House in Awka.

Parties and their candidates

From the ruling APGA to the opposition Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), each party is mobilising around its unique strengths and appeal.

For instance, APGA is the dominant political force in Anambra, holding power uninterrupted since 2006. The party has chosen to stay with Mr Soludo, who was returned unopposed in its recent primary election after securing all delegates’ votes.

Mr Soludo, a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is banking on his achievements in his current first term, particularly in infrastructure renewal and youth empowerment.

APGA’s campaign is being coordinated by its National Chairman, Sylvester Ezeokenwa, who has repeatedly claimed that the opposition parties, including the APC, LP, and PDP, pose no threat to the ruling party in the state. With the party being in power, it controls the state’s 21 local government areas and 326 wards. The local structure is the party’s greatest asset because its network of ward captains, traditional rulers, and local government appointees gives it unmatched grassroots penetration.

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The LP, sustained by the Obidient Movement, poses a serious challenge to APGA’s dominance. Its candidate, George Moghalu, former Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), emerged with a convincing majority in the party’s primary.

Mr Moghalu’s campaign has focused on rebuilding public trust, promoting transparency, and presenting LP as a viable alternative. The party’s strength lies in the enthusiasm of urban youth, social media, professionals, and diaspora supporters.

The APC, Nigeria’s ruling party, has historically struggled in Anambra. Nonetheless, it has nominated Nicholas Ukachukwu, an industrialist and philanthropist, as its candidate. Mr Ukachukwu’s campaign focuses on economic revival by leveraging his business expertise to transform Anambra into an industrial hub.

His campaign is linked to federal connections, particularly from APC figures of Igbo extraction, such as former Governor Chris Ngige, and from the party’s access to federal patronage. However, the APC is perceived as an outsider party in the Anambra political environment.

Although 16 parties are on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) list for the poll, most of these parties, apart from APGA, LP, PDP, and APC, have little presence. However, they can act as spoilers or negotiating tools in close LGAs.

The power brokers: Ex-governors and Lawmakers

Anambra politics is often elite-driven. Beyond the candidates and parties, influential politicians and former officeholders will play decisive roles through endorsements, mobilisation, and financing.

At the federal level, the three serving senators, Victor Umeh (LP, Anambra Central), Tony Nwoye (LP, Anambra North), and Emmanuel Nwachukwu (APGA, Anambra South) command distinct regional strongholds.

Messrs Umeh and Nwoye are natural assets for the LP, anchoring its presence in central and northern districts. They are expected to help translate LP’s popularity into tangible votes. Mr Nwachukwu, who succeeded the late Ifeanyi Ubah, gave Mr Soludo a serious challenge in the district.

Among the old guard, former governors Peter Obi, Willie Obiano, and Mr Ngige are also influential. Mr Obi’s alignment with LP carries immense weight, particularly among educated youth and traders inspired by his reformist reputation.

Mr Obiano, who is Mr Soludo’s predecessor, has retained networks among local government appointees and traditional institutions that can aid APGA’s grassroots defence.

Mr Ngige, although less politically active now since leaving office as Labour and Employment Minister under the Muhammadu Buhari administration, still commands some respect among older APC faithful and could influence vote patterns within his domain.

House of Representatives members from Anambra will also play micro-mobilisation roles in their respective constituencies by influencing logistics, patronage, and turnout.

The money men and business alliances

Politics in Anambra, the commercial hub of the South-east, is, in most cases, inseparable from business interests. The South-east state is reputed to have the highest number of billionaires in the country, though no official data has confirmed this. Nevertheless, the entrepreneurs, traders, and industrialists from the state wield both financial muscle and social clout capable of tilting electoral outcomes.

Foremost among them is Arthur Eze, the oil magnate and philanthropist who has publicly endorsed Governor Soludo’s re-election bid. Mr Eze’s support provides APGA with elite legitimacy and vast fundraising potential.

Another figure to watch is Valentine Ozigbo, the former Transcorp CEO and 2021 PDP governorship candidate, who is now active in business and civic networks. Although he has not declared support for any candidate, his endorsement could redirect donor flows and strategic alliances.

Mr Obi, also a businessman, has already declared his support for Mr Moghalu.

Although it is not entirely clear where other wealthy men, such as Emeka Offor, Cosmas Maduka, Obiora Okonkwo, Andy Uba, Allen Onyema, and A.B.C. Ojiakor stand in the state’s political firmament, they are likely to play some significant roles in the coming election.

The Onitsha Main Market traders’ unions, Nnewi industrialists, and the Anambra diaspora investment circles are similarly influential. These groups often provide campaign logistics, local intelligence, and transportation support, sometimes providing more support than formal endorsements.

How these forces shape the race

Financing and Logistics: Elections in Anambra, like those in other parts of Nigeria, are capital-intensive. Political financiers bankroll everything from billboards to security arrangements and election-day logistics.

Candidates with strong entrepreneurial backers can sustain extensive ward operations, deploy canvassers, and dominate visibility. APGA’s access to state resources and benefactors, such as Mr Eze, gives Mr Soludo a logistical edge.

Elite endorsements and party cohesion: In a politically literate state like Anambra, elite endorsements matter. When influential personalities, such as senators, business moguls, and clerics, publicly declare their allegiance, it creates a ripple effect across communities.

Mr Soludo’s campaign has already leveraged endorsements from regional leaders, while LP relies on Mr Obi’s influence.

Grassroots networks: APGA’s entrenched structures across 326 wards and its newly launched “Solution Marshals”, a community-based voter coordinator initiative, give it a superior mobilisation strategy.

LP, still building its local structure, relies more on volunteer energy and urban enthusiasm. APC will face the most challenging task in rebuilding dormant ward structures and persuading voters.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: How Anambra security conundrum may shape Saturday’s governorship election

The spoiler factor: With 16 candidates cleared by INEC, vote-splitting is inevitable. Smaller parties may strategically withdraw or merge support in the final weeks. These micro-alliances could tilt close LGAs. For instance, if an ADC or NNPP candidate aligns with LP in the Onitsha axis, APGA’s margin could narrow drastically.

Security and turnout: Anambra faces many security challenges that can affect voter turnout. The party best able to reassure citizens of safety, particularly in market hubs and transport corridors, stands to benefit from higher participation. APGA, controlling state security coordination, has the means to stabilise. LP and APC will have to rely on federal and community assurances.

Strategic battlegrounds and what to watch: The election will likely hinge on voter behaviour in Onitsha North/South, Nnewi North/South, and Awka North/South, the state’s most populous and politically active local governments. Historically, high turnout has a significant impact on governorship margins.

Public debates, town hall meetings, and endorsement rallies from traditional rulers and bishops could further influence voter preferences in the final weeks.

Forecast and possible scenarios: For now, Governor Soludo is many people’s favourite, probably because of his incumbency, established structure, and elite cohesion. However, the race is still competitive.

The LP presents a strong opposition. If it converts youth enthusiasm into actual votes and secures credible ward agents, it can significantly narrow the gap.

The APC could also pose a good challenge if it consolidates its base in Nnewi and Idemili.

A second-term victory for Mr Soludo would reaffirm APGA’s dominance and Anambra’s tradition of backing homegrown parties. A strong LP performance, however, would signal the influence of Mr Obi and potentially reshape South-east politics ahead of 2027, while an APC victory would consolidate the party’s rising profile in the South-east.

Saturday’s poll will test not just political strength, but the interplay of power, money, and influence in the South-eastern state.