The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday downgraded its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0 per cent.
The downgrade follows a recent decline in global crude oil prices, the multilateral organisation said in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on the sidelines of the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington.
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The new forecast represents a 0.2 percentage point reduction from the IMF’s earlier projection of 3.2 per cent.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the report said, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4.0 per cent in 2024 to 3.8 per cent in 2025, before recovering modestly to 4.2 per cent in 2026.
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“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices,” the fund said.
“In South Africa, the growth forecast is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 performance, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.”
In his intervention Tuesday, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist and director of research department at the IMF, said the decline in oil prices weakens global activity and results in decline in prices.
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“There’s been some increase in supply coming from OPEC plus countries, but broadly speaking, the decline is mostly coming from weaker demand,” he said.
Earlier, the IMF said that the economic reforms undertaken by Nigeria since 2023 have significantly improved the country’s capacity to withstand external economic shocks. It stated this in its 2025 Article IV Consultation report, which followed a visit by an IMF team led by Axel Schimmelpfennig, the Fund’s mission chief for Nigeria, who held discussions with key stakeholders in Lagos and Abuja between 2 April and 15 April.
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