Never before have Nigerians found themselves in such a dire predicament, where the fate of an entire nation hinges on the whims of a single individual. One man handpicks who becomes governor or sole administrator, decides who gets even a whiff of justice, and determines whether we’re allowed to peacefully protest the hardship we endure. It feels eerily akin to life in North Korea, where the Mount Paektu bloodline rules with absolute authority — or worse, King Leopold’s Belgian Congo, governed like a private estate. In Nigerian street lingo: We don enter one chance.
From the very inception of his presidency, President Tinubu’s modus operandi has been brazenly transparent: surround himself with the ethically compromised and those with criminal indictments hanging over their heads, thereby binding them with the invisible chains of coercion and blackmail. The individual enthroned as Senate President did not contest in his party’s senatorial primary election and was under investigation by the EFCC for allegedly looting a staggering N108 billion from his state’s coffers while serving as governor.
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Equally unsettling is the appointment of Nigeria’s most senior judicial officer, the head of the judiciary, who, not long ago, presided over the judicial sleight of hand that inexplicably installed a fourth-place gubernatorial candidate as governor. At some point, one cannot help but wonder: Is this governance, or a dark ritual of political sorcery masquerading as statecraft?
One thing is indisputable: Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a master of political strategy. Over the years, he has astutely refined his political acumen, securing his enduring relevance and power in Nigerian politics. For a man who vacated the governor’s mansion in Alausa in 2007, surrounded by a large army of loyalists, he has continued to exert an almost dictatorial influence over the political direction of Lagos.
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Those who dared challenge his authority learnt, oftentimes painfully, the extent of his power.
Having spent decades in the corridors of power, he has accumulated a formidable war chest, which he is always prepared to deploy with ruthless efficiency at the slightest provocation. His collaborators are acutely aware that loyalty to him is richly rewarded, and they are thus willing to risk everything for him. If they find themselves in trouble, the Godfather need only make a couple of calls, and any transgression, no matter how grave, can be overlooked.
Initially, Tinubu presented himself as a civil rights advocate, and over the years, he cultivated relationships with human rights activists and intellectuals, many of whom still regard him as a comrade and, therefore, are reluctant to criticise his administration. Even when they do, their criticisms tend to be tepid, as if to preempt any accusations of harbouring a former ally. In this way, Tinubu has managed to establish connections across all strata of Nigerian society, including Uber volatile militant groups in the Niger Delta.
During the run-up to the election that propelled him to the presidency, it became abundantly clear that the inner circle of President Buhari’s administration had no love for Tinubu. In fact, they had a favoured candidate in the form of Senator Ahmed Lawan. Yet, Tinubu is not a man to be easily sidelined, even by the power brokers around a sitting president. Despite the intrigues and maneuverings, Tinubu prevailed, and the rest, as they say, is history.
In contemporary Nigeria, opposition politics has all but ceased to exist, despite the ongoing charades. What remains are fragmented, underfunded groups, most of whom, I am certain, would readily abandon their cause if the right incentives are offered by the ruling APC.
In the Labour Party, Julius Abure’s tenure as chairman was marked by in-fighting, and his eventual dismissal by the Supreme Court underscored the dysfunction within the party. Abure was widely regarded as a mole, allegedly receiving compensation from certain factions in Abuja. Then you have a fellow called Lamidi Apapa, who continues to assert himself as the party’s leader, playing the role of a spoiler with abandon.
In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the situation is no better. The party has been eviscerated from within by figures like Nyesom Wike and the defection of no-value-add but garrulous members such as Femi Fani-Kayode and Reno Omokri. Today, the PDP is reduced to a shell of its former self, with only the irrepressible Dino Melaye left to dance “Baba wen no well, E dey shout emilokan.” One can only speculate how much longer this charade will continue. Even in the face of Wike’s blatant anti-party actions, the party’s leadership couldn’t even summon the courage to censure him.
An observer unfamiliar with Tinubu’s game might be baffled by some of his political decisions, particularly with regard to his appointments. Consider the astonishing speed with which he “forgave” Reno Omokri and Femi Fani-Kayode, offering them ambassadorial positions in his administration. These are two individuals who, prior to the 2023 election, engaged in a ceaseless campaign of vitriol, hurling insults and personal attacks at him.
Yet, Tinubu, having honed his political instincts on the streets of Chicago, understands human nature well — he knows when individuals are motivated by hunger rather than ideology. Both Omokri and Fani-Kayode were clearly desperate for sustenance, and now, Tinubu has promised to nourish them. Once they are adequately fed, he will ensure that their disruptive presence is relegated to foreign shores, where their nuisance value will be minimal.
How about Mr Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna state, who was one of the President’s pillars of support when the Buhari-era Aso-Rock cabal wanted to derail his bid? Well, despite Tinubu’s best efforts to accommodate the little vile man (apologies to Professor Chidi Odinkalu), El-Rufai continues to be such a slimy serpent incapable of being trusted. Besides, he was such a huge political liability, too toxic, that no one wants to really embrace him.
However, BAT’s appointments also highlight a crucial shift in the political landscape. In today’s world, moderation is no longer an asset, it is a liability. To capture the attention of any leader, one must either be an unrelenting supporter or a fierce adversary. The middle ground is barren; it breeds irrelevance. Both Omokri and Fani-Kayode are adept at playing this game, constantly shifting allegiances and sharpening their rhetoric to stay in the limelight. Reno’s vocal confrontations with Peter Obi and the Obidients likely cemented his place in Tinubu’s favour.
If you are wondering why the American Cable News Network (CNN), a historically balanced network with a slight liberal tilt, lags behind Fox News, a far-right echo chamber, in ratings, it is because of its inability to stake a claim in the ideological divide. The right despises CNN, while the left remains indifferent, uncertain of where the network’s loyalties truly lie. What was once the gold standard in media reporting is now struggling to remain relevant.
Tinubu’s camp is acutely aware of the opposition, and although he controls the full apparatus of the state —executive, legislature, and judiciary, he is unwilling to take any chances. He knows that the northern factions remain ambivalent, and that the power of a northern coalition, with its propensity for sacrificing personal ambition for the collective interest, is formidable. In response, he has deployed Hope Uzodinma and his faction to Katsina to bolster Mai Gaskiya, a man whose loyalty to the APC he intends to leverage for the 2027 election.
Thus, a president who presided over a dark era, one whose memory Nigerians are eager to erase, is now being repackaged as a revered figure. Yet, when it comes to the North, Buhari enjoys far greater street credibility than figures like Atiku Abubakar or Rabiu Kwankwaso, which may explain why the current president still seeks the company of a man he helped crown but whose support for his own quest to become president was lethargic at best.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the modern-day Machiavelli, and it is as if he reads The Prince daily, reminding himself that a ruler need not be concerned with ethics, but rather with the most effective means of achieving his goals.
While his actions may serve his personal political survival and benefit his loyalists, one remains skeptical that this strategy will ultimately serve the Nigerian people, who are being pummeled from all sides and left bewildered by the spectacle they are witnessing. As the saying goes, a rope that is drawn too tightly is bound to snap at some point. It is time the Lion King of Bourdillon lets Nigeria breathe.
Osmund Agbo is a US-based medical doctor and author. His works include Black Grit, White Knuckles: The Philosophy of Black Renaissance and a fiction work titled The Velvet Court: Courtesan Chronicles. His latest works, Pray, Let the Shaman Die and Ma’am, I Do Not Come to You for Love, have just been released.
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