ANALYSIS: How Zamfara governor squandered goodwill, lost to PDP

Not many foresaw Zamfara State governor, Bello Matawalle of the All Progressives Congress (APC), losing his seat to Dauda Lawal of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 18 March governorship election.

The upset makes Mr Matawalle the only sitting governor to lose a reelection bid in this election cycle. The only other governor whose fate is yet to be decided is Adamu Fintiri in Adamawa State where the election was declared inconclusive but with the PDP goverernor leading his APC challenger, Aishatu Dahiru, aka Binani, with over 30,000 votes.

The declaration by Kashim Shehu, the Zamfara State collation officer, that Mr Lawal, having scored 377,726 votes, was the winner of the election, sealed the sitting governor’s fate.

Mr Matawalle polled 311,976 votes while the National Rescue Movement (NRM) candidate, Aliyu Dansadau, came a distant third with 2,416. Ahmed Yahuza of the Labour Party got 573 votes to come fourth.

Mr Dauda won Anka, Bukkuyum, Shinkafi, Gusau, Tsafe, Gummi, Bungudu, Maru Kaura Namoda and Zurmi LGAs while Mr Matawalle won Maradun, Talata Mafara, Birnin Magaji and Bakura.

The election result came to many people in the state and the entire northern part of the country as a surprise because the PDP had never won a governorship election in Zamfara since 1999. The PDP lost to the various iterations of the ruling party in previous elections: from the All Peoples Party (APP) to the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) to the APC.

Mr Matawalle himself came to power as a PDP candidate in 2019 but it was the Supreme Court that gave him the top job having penalised the APC for not nominating its victorious candidate through valid primaries.

He quickly decamped to APC, however, apparently concluding that only the party’s platform could guarantee him a second term.

So how did a little known Mr Lawal pull such a huge surprise? How did PDP manage to wrest the seat from the ruling APC?

Underestimating Dauda Lawal

A few years ago, Mr Matawalle was, arguably, the most liked and most respected politician in Zamfara State. And there was a reason. At a time when all the top politicians in the state sided with the ANPP and later the APC, Mr Matawalle represented the new face of the PDP, braving the odds.

His decision to stay in the PDP and publicly identify with the poor in the state, made him a hero. No one thought he would jump ship to the APC from the PDP after he was declared the new governor in waiting by the Supreme Court.

As soon as he rejoined the old group of his former allies in the APC, Mr Matawalle felt there was no one to succeed against him in the PDP or any party.

For the record, the “influential politicians” in the APC include former governors Ahmad Yarima and Abdulaziz Yari. Others are former deputy governors, Ibrahim Wakkala and Mukhtar Anka; former senators Hassan Nasiha, Kabiru Marafa and Sahabi Yau; House of Representatives member, Sani Jaji, and a host of others.

Mr Matawalle thought teaming up with the influential politicians guaranteed him a second term in office. Some of the influential politicians, especially Mr Yari, also said so.

But they were wrong.

While Mr Matawalle and the APC were banking on the power of incumbency, Mr Lawal started building his candidature from the surface.

He met aggrieved politicians in both the APC and the PDP. His first task was to unite PDP through the old foxes, especially Aliyu Gusau, Bala Mande, Ikea Bilbis and others. His hands stretched into the APC fold where he won over Aliyu Tukur, the state commissioner for budget and planning, and other bigwigs who were not enjoying time in the APC.

By the time Mr Matawalle and the APC realised that Mr Lawal had become a threat, it was too late.

Presidential results

The outcome of the presidential election results also deceived the APC into believing that the party has Zamfara State in its kitty.

In the 25 February election, Mr Tinubu polled 298,396 votes while Atiku Abubakar of the PDP got 193,978 votes.

After that victory, Mr Matawalle and the APC relaxed their campaigns. It was only Mr Yari who continued campaigning for Mr Matawalle in Talata Mafara local government area.

On the other hand, the PDP and Mr Lawal intensified their campaigns, believing that politics is local.

APC performance

One of the obvious reasons why Mr Matawalle failed to win is the lack of capital projects and his scant attention to workers’ welfare.

In the build up to the election, the PDP asked questions about capital projects for which contracts were said to have been awarded by the state government but with nothing on the ground to show. The state government and the APC were forced to respond many times to the PDP’ search for the projects.

A cargo airport that was awarded for construction during former governor Mr Shinkafi’s tenure (2007-2011) but got stopped by Mr Yari. It was re-awarded by Mr Matawalle but there is nothing to show for it. Not much progress has been made from the way Mr Shinkafi left it.

In an interview with DW Hausa, Mr Matawalle was asked of his capital projects and if he had been using the projects to campaign for a second term. But Mr Matawalle could not cite any project he had done. Rather, he said the people of Zamfara State had seen and appreciated what he has done.

Civil servants have also been feeling the heat as salaries are not paid as at when due. A check by PREMIUM TIMES revealed that some civil servants were yet to receive their February salary as of 20 March. Minimum wage increament has also been on and off with several civil servants complaining that their salary has been slashed instead of being increased.

Power shift

Another factor that doomed Mr Matawalle’s reelection bid is a clamour for power shift to Zamfara Central senatorial district, which has been on since 1999.

Mr Matawalle is from the Western district which has produced three governors since 1999. His two predecessors from the district are Mr Yerima (1999-2007) and Mr Yari (2011 – 2019).

In between, Mr Shinkafi from the northern zone led from 2007-2011.The central zone has only produced the deputy governor, Mr Wakkala (2011-2023) and the incumbent deputy governor Hassan Nasiha. The fight for the zone to have a shot at the top job helped Mr Lawal, who is from Gusau in the central zone.

Though the incumbent deputy governor, Mr Nasiha, is also from Gusau, the people of the zone united for the first time to push for the top seat in the state

An analysis of the results shows that the central zone with four local government areas all went to Mr Lawal. Gusau gave him 64,710 votes against Mr Matawalle’s 32,172. Tsafe gave him 42,188 while Mr Matawalle got 25,805. In Bungudu, Mr Lawal polled 47,464 while Mr Matawalle got 24,862. Mr Lawal also got 22,036 in Maru where Mr Matawalle polled only 10,646 votes.

In the zone, Mr Lawal got a total votes of 176,398 while Mr Matawalle got 93,488, representing a sizeable difference of 82,910 votes between the two. It proved to be the decider as Mr Lawal won the election with 65,750 votes.

Several people in the central zone voted not along party lines but based on the craving for power shift to their zone.

Betraying PDP

Another factor that contributed to Mr Matawalle’s failure is his decision to ditch the party on which he rode to power.

His predecessor, Mr Yari, had anointed his finance commissioner as the APC candidate in 2019, a development that made other party bigwigs to rebel and press for another candidate. The two factions could not agree on the conduct of primaries despite the APC national headquarters’ involvement. When the case reached the Supreme Court after the election, Mr Matawalle, the PDP candidate who came second in the governorship election, was ordered to be sworn in as governor.

The APC had polled 534,541 votes to Mr Matawalle of PDP’s 189,452. Despite the wide margin, the court voided all votes polled by the APC.

In 2021, Mr Matawalle joined the APC with nearly all the PDP structure. Those who refused to follow him, like Mahadi Aliyu, his then deputy governor; Bala Mande, his chief of staff, and others were kicked out of government.

He came hard on the PDP, forgetting it was the same ladder he used to climb to the top.

Aside from that, many party bigwigs including Bala Mai riga (a retired military captain and a former ambassador) and Ikea Bilbis (former information minister) were charged to court and sent to prison for offences they insisted they did not commit.

Even social media critics believed to be members of the PDP were not spared by the governor. A popular social media critic of Mr Matawalle, Mugira Yusuf, who is also a member of the PDP, was arrested and detained by the police. Ukashatu Abubakar, another social media critic, was also arrested. The two were arrested for “criminal conspiracy and inciting public disturbance.”

But it was not only the PDP that felt betrayed and threatened by Mr Matawalle’s action. Many other people, especially those not in the APC, felt any of them could be on the governor’s radar.

A wounded General

From 1999, Aliyu Muhammad-Gusau (commonly known as Aliyu Gusau), a retired military general, was the chief financer of the PDP in the state. While he was its defacto leader, he hardly got involved physically, possibly due to his background as a military intelligence officer. Nonetheless, the party and its members look up to him for guidance, control and support.

His third child, Mahadi Aliyu, was the deputy governor sacked for refusing to follow the governor to the APC. The state House of Assembly charged him with corruption and insubordination and quickly impeached him.

Then, the state APC publicity secretary, Yusuf Gusau, found a punching bag in the former army chief, national security adviser and minister of defence. He accused Mr Gusau of being behind banditry in the state. The governor himself, on several occasions, also accused Mr Gusau of owning illegal mining pits which aggrevated banditry.

The old general did not take the accusations and the impeachment of his son lightly. They made him to intensify support for Mr Lawal. For the first time, his son, Mahadi, joined a campaign council. The old general handed over his political structure led by Bala Mande (a former colonel) to Mr Lawal and supported financially. People aligned to the old general, who were hitherto averse to participating in election, were seen campaigning for Mr Lawal.

Vigorous campaign through young people

Mr Lawal’s path to the election was littered with political thorns, including five legal cases that reached the Supreme Court. He had to fight a retinue of opponents to secure his nomination. A former House of Representatives’ member, Ibrahim Shehu-Gusau, Wadatau Madawaki, Aliyu Mohammed and others contested against Mr Lawal.

What was striking throughout his battle in the PDP was that Mr Lawal did not relent in his vigorous campaign. While his legal team was busy in the courts, Mr Lawal was all over the state with his campaign team seeking for votes.

When the Supreme Court finally ruled in his favour, he asked his supporters to concentrate fully on the campaign.

Social media and the youth also helped the governor-elect. Youth and student organisations supported him mainly because he had helped many of them to secure jobs and constructed capital projects in higher institutions across the state. His campaign team said he has a building in all the higher institutions in the state. While PREMIUM TIMES could not verify the claim, it is true that Mr Lawal has supported the Federal University Gusau and Federal College of Education (Technical) Gusau with buildings and road network in their campuses.

Despite the climate of insecurity, Mr Lawal visited every local government area and selected some major communities in the state to revisit. As of Thursday night, a few hours to the end of campaigns, Mr Lawal was still on the road, interacting with members of local communities.

All his work and other factors silently paved the way to the upset victory that Mr Lawal recorded against Governor Matawalle in the election.