ANALYSIS: PDP’s Lawal leads challenge against Matawalle in Zamfara governorship race

Between 2010 and 2019 when he was in the opposition, Bello Matawalle derived pleasure in challenging the ruling party in Zamfara State. He was vocal and intimidating that his antics took him above the reach of his most ardent rival, then Governor Abdulaziz Yari.

Mr Matawalle won the sympathy of people in the state mainly because he knew how to weave his words at political gatherings to make himself look like the victim while Mr Yari, ex governor Ahmad Yarima and other politicians of the ruling party appeared to be the villains.

That was Mr Matawalle’s campaign style until he clinched the top seat in the state through a Supreme Court ruling in 2019.

Although Mr Matawalle emerged as governor on the platform of the then-opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), he later defected to the ruling party, APC.

It is safe to say that the saying “What goes around comes around” is catching up with Mr Matawalle, who is now the incumbent governor seeking a second term.

Dauda Lawal, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has taken over Mr Matawalle’s gauntlet of playing the victim and that is one of the reasons the contest is exciting.

While Mr Matawalle is now taking the heat, being blamed by the opposition, Mr Lawal is enjoying the sympathy of the people. In virtually all his campaign rallies, he speaks of how the state government is using security agents to frustrate him and his party.

Messrs Matawalle and Lawal are not the only candidates in Saturday’s gubernatorial election in the state. There are 13 other contestants but the two are without a doubt the frontrunners.

Background

Mr Matawalle has solidified his grip on the APC with the reconciliation that saw his top two rivals for the leadership of the party, Mr Yari and Kabiru Marafa, throwing their support behind him. He had one of the easiest pathways to primary election in the country this year as the party and other stakeholders gave him the greenlight to seek a second term.

With the “blessings” of Messrs Yari, Yerima and Marafa, the governor secured the party’s ticket with a promise to carry everyone along. He later carried out a minor cabinet reshuffle to accommodate his new friends in his government and it seemed all was going well until Mr Lawal emerged.

Mr Lawal, on the other hand, had to fight a retinue of opponents to secure his nomination. A former House of Representatives member, Ibrahim Shehu-Gusau, Wadatau Madawaki, Aliyu Mohammed and others contested against Mr Lawal.

After the primary election, a legal battle ensued that ended at the Supreme Court. The contest took Mr Lawal to five different courts before he could heave a sigh of relief.

Mr Lawal’s decision to contest had come to many as a surprise because it was thought Mahadi Ali-Gusau, the impeached former deputy to Mr Matawalle, would be the PDP candidate. His father, Aliyu Gusau, a former defence minister and national security adviser, is the leader of PDP in the state. But it seems Mr Mahadi prefers to support Mr Lawal to fight his erstwhile principal.

The Issues

As the incumbent governor, Mr Matawalle has the upper hand in the contest.

His party has been the dominant party in the state since 1999. From the All Peoples Party (APP) to All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP) to the APC, the party has always won elections in the state. In 2007, Governor Mahmuda Shinkafi crossed over to the PDP but failed to get a second term. In 2019, Mr Matawalle won through the Supreme Court under the PDP but quickly left for the APC. Aside that, the state has always been an APC state.

Mr Matawalle also has the party and its stalwarts behind him. There is no doubt that Mr Yari is the most influential party member in the state with a good national reach and a huge following in the state. His decision to support Mr Matawalle for a second term has energised the party and its members.

Mr Yari is influential in the state because of his readiness to splash money and gifts to constituents. His support is genuine as he once said during a Sallah homage to the governor last year.

“If you support me but you don’t support the governor, kindly withdraw your support for me because the governor and I are one,” he said.

The party has other bigwigs like Messrs Yerima, Marafa and Shinkafi. Others like former deputy governors Mukhtar Ahmed and Ibrahim Wakkala have also joined Mr Matawalle’s league of supporters. One of the governor’s major successes was uniting the party.

Another factor that may work for him is the fact that the state gave the APC 298,396 votes in the just concluded presidential election. The party’s success in the election is seen as a sign of good things to come for the party.

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Mr Matawalle has also been one of the governors with highest number of aides in the country. The argument is that those appointed would work assiduously for his return to power. He has also employed more civil servants in the state, especially in the health and education sectors, more than his last two predecessors. To be fair to him, Mr Matawalle has fulfilled his promise of recruiting more hands for schools and hospitals across the state, though labour issues including none payment of salaries have been on the rise.

While he has the incumbency factor and the unity of the party behind him, Mr Matawalle, however, has a headache to contend with. The clamour for power to shift to the central zone of the state has been on since 1999. Mr Matawalle is from the western zone which has produced three governors since 1999.

Mr Yarima (1999-2007), Mr Yari (2011 – 2019) and now Mr Matawalle. In between, Mr Shinkafi from the northern zone led from 2007-2011. The central zone has a deputy governor, Mr Wakkala from (2011-2023) and the incumbent Hassan Nasiha. The fight is for the zone to have a shot at the top job and that’s why Mr Lawal, who is from Gusau in the central zone, keeps waxing stronger.

One of Mr Lawal’s greatest strength is the number of those hoping that the central zone gets the seat this time around.

The PDP candidate and the party in general have also accused Mr Matawalle of not doing enough capital projects. They have challenged Mr Matawalle and the APC to show their projects but the latter have not responded to the challenges.

One other thing that may work in favour of Mr Lawal is widespread economic harship, poverty and insecurity in the state. The PDP has used the problem of banditry specifically to campaign against the APC in the state. And with the rising number of terrorists attacks, residents of the state may feel the APC, despite being in power for eight years, is not capable of bringing an end to the menace.

Mr Lawal also has better educational qualifications than Mr Matawalle. While the PDP candidate has a PhD in Business administration and worked in the banking sector to reach the position of a an executive director, Mr Matawalle has a bachelor degree from Thames Valley University, London and had worked as a teacher and later at the Federal Ministry of Water Resources.

While Mr Matawalle has been in politics since at least 1998, serving as a House of Assembly member, commissioner, House of Representatives member and now governor, Mr Lawal does not have much political experience and that may count against him.

The PDP candidate has argued that with his background in the business and economic sector, he can turn around the fortunes of the state.

While the PDP is strong and has the blessings of the retired general (Mr Gusau) who can help financially, Mr Lawal has another headache. He has a long way to convince the trio of Messrs Ibrahim Gusau, Madawaki and Aliyu Muhammad who see him as an intruder in the PDP. The Supreme Court verdict that was passed less than a week to the election has opened more wounds to Mr Lawal’s journey because he may not have the time to convince some of his opponents in the PDP to support him. Mr Matawalle can use that to his advantage and get the trio and their supporters to his side.

The PDP is strong and united in the central zone while the APC is divided in that zone. The inconclusive senatorial election in the zone has also emboldened the PDP that is seen as the favourite in the zone while it cast doubts on the minds of several APC top shots.

Jabaka and others

Other notable contestants include Kabiru Jabaka and Aliyu Dansadau of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and National Rescue Movement (NRM) respectively.

Mr Jabaka was the deputy chairman of the PDP before he left the party to take the NNPP governorship ticket while Mr Dansadau’s major weapon is his father, Sa’idu Dansadau, a veteran politician who was a senator from 1999-2003.