Benue’s bloodshed: Beyond ethnic tensions, a triple crisis of climate, politics, and arms, By Ope Oriniowo

Benue’s tragedy is a warning — and an opportunity. If we continue to explain it through the narrow lens of “age-old rivalry,” we will not only fail the people of the state but also lose the broader fight against state fragility in Nigeria. It’s time to look deeper, act smarter, and lead boldly — because only a multidimensional response can tame a multidimensional crisis.

The haunting images and staggering death toll from recent attacks in Benue State — where over 200 people were reportedly killed — should gnaw deeply at any nation’s conscience. But what is more worrying than the violence itself is our persistent failure to engage with its true complexity. The dominant narrative of a “farmer-herder clash” grossly oversimplifies what is in fact a dangerous confluence of climate-induced displacement, electoral opportunism, and uncontrolled arms proliferation.

We are not witnessing isolated acts of community violence. We are seeing a regional crisis metastasise into national fragility.

Climate Change as a Conflict Catalyst

For decades, the advancing desert and shrinking water bodies in Nigeria’s northern and border regions have silently displaced thousands of herders. The once-seasonal migration of Fulani pastoralists in search of pasture has transformed into a semi-permanent southward resettlement — often without governance frameworks to manage new cohabitation dynamics. Benue, with its fertile plains and historical identity as the “Food Basket of the Nation,” has become a flashpoint.

The shrinking of Lake Chad, now just a tenth of its former size, and the degradation of the Sahel have uprooted entire livelihoods. These displaced groups — armed with nothing more than cattle and resilience — have found themselves in confrontation with farming communities equally squeezed by land pressure and economic precarity. The result? Resource disputes that too easily ignite longstanding ethnic and religious tensions.

My direct engagement with these dynamics became especially pronounced when in 2017, leading to the first quarter of 2018, I served as a research and policy consultant on a study commissioned by the Synergos Institute and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, under the State Partnership for Agriculture (SPA) initiative. The study aimed to explore pathways for controlled grazing as a means of eliminating the persistent clashes between farmers and herders.

Compounding this ecological crisis is a deeply entrenched political culture of identity politics that thrives on division. In Benue, anti-open grazing laws — though rooted in legitimate concerns — have become symbols of political identity. In the build-up to elections, these laws are often enforced unevenly, serving as dog whistles that further polarise communities.

As part of this work, I traveled across Benue, Kaduna, and Nasarawa states, engaging deeply with farmers, pastoralists, and community leaders. These dialogues informed the National Livestock Transformation Plan through practical policy proposals, such as demarcating grazing reserves, designing context-specific incentives, and developing robust monitoring and compliance systems. It became clear to me that while the triggers of violence may appear local, the solutions must be both systems-based and nationally owned.

When Elections Fuel Firestorms

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Compounding this ecological crisis is a deeply entrenched political culture of identity politics that thrives on division. In Benue, anti-open grazing laws — though rooted in legitimate concerns — have become symbols of political identity. In the build-up to elections, these laws are often enforced unevenly, serving as dog whistles that further polarise communities.

Political actors across party lines have been accused, directly or by implication, of stoking tensions for electoral gain. Local militia groups, once created for community defence or political muscle, have now taken on lives of their own — becoming actors in a shadow conflict economy fuelled by fear, revenge, and impunity.

This is not unique to Benue. Similar pre-election violence has surfaced in Plateau, Taraba, and parts of Kaduna, underscoring how deeply electoral politics have penetrated communal fault lines.

Perhaps the most alarming catalyst in this inferno is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Nigeria’s porous borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon have become open highways for weapons trafficked from the ruins of Libya and the conflicts in Mali and Burkina Faso.

An Arms Market Without Borders

Perhaps the most alarming catalyst in this inferno is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Nigeria’s porous borders with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon have become open highways for weapons trafficked from the ruins of Libya and the conflicts in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Once in Nigeria, these weapons find eager hands. In many Middle Belt communities, vigilante groups now match or outgun official security forces. Militias, criminal bandits, and even displaced youth carry arms not only for protection but for survival in a state where the monopoly on violence has all but eroded.

The Nigerian State — under-resourced, over-politicised, and institutionally fragile — struggles to respond. Military deployments are reactive, not preventative. Intelligence-gathering is weak. Justice is elusive. And communities, left to fend for themselves, sink deeper into a culture of reprisal.

What Must Be Done

To change this trajectory, we must shift from reaction to strategy.

• Reframe the conflict: Recognise and communicate that this is not merely an ethnic or religious clash. It is a multidimensional crisis that demands integrated, cross-sectoral responses.
• Invest in climate adaptation: Support for grazing reserves, water infrastructure, and climate-smart agriculture must be prioritised in national and subnational budgets. This is peacebuilding through environmental justice.
• Reform the security architecture: Strengthen border control and improve the capacity of local policing, while ensuring communities are protected and not further militarised.
• De-escalate electoral violence: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), civil society, and security agencies must develop pre-election violence monitoring and response frameworks.
• Prioritise regional diplomacy: Nigeria must intensify coordination with ECOWAS and neighbouring states to stem arms flow and manage cross-border displacement before it becomes another regional crisis.

Conclusion

Benue’s tragedy is a warning — and an opportunity. If we continue to explain it through the narrow lens of “age-old rivalry,” we will not only fail the people of the state but also lose the broader fight against state fragility in Nigeria. It’s time to look deeper, act smarter, and lead boldly — because only a multidimensional response can tame a multidimensional crisis.

Ope Oriniowo is an international development specialist.