In search of a driver: Nigeria and paralysis, despite analyses, By Umar Yakubu

…as I listened to all the speakers, one thing was clear, as usual: that all our problems are well documented and analysed. I also think that all the varieties of solutions are well documented. What seems to be missing is the ‘driver’ with the right competence to jumpstart the country towards progress. So, how do we get the right drivers at all levels to improve our economic performance? What kind of political model will boost economic development in Nigeria?

A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way, and shows the way. — John C. Maxwell.

The Nigerian media space has been awash with intense discussions about politics, cash limitations, corruption and all the negativities of the normal media. So, it was quite a relief that someone decided to talk about governance, on which most of our problems are centred. In partnership with the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an Abuja-based think-tank, Agora Policy, organised a one-day programme to discuss a book by Zainab Usman on “How Nigeria can build a post-oil economic future”. Although I have not read the book to be able to make authoritative comments on it, I will rely on the judgement of someone I consider a genius in economics and governance, Professor Charles Soludo. He confirmed the brilliance of the book and its relevance to Nigeria’s development, while further displaying three other voluminous books, The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa 1980- 2000; Economic Policy Choices for a Prosperous Nigeria; and The Politics of Trade and Industrial Policy in Africa, to highlight how long we have been documenting the solutions to our problems in Nigeria.

In summary, it was a brilliant programme. Going beyond the norm, deep conversations on the way forward for the country were had at the programme. An event having two former CBN governors in attendance, dozens of economists, private sector practitioners, development partners, and civil society organisations was certainly expected to be robust. Dr Zainab emphasised the need to keep having the right deep conversations pertaining to Nigeria’s development because, as other nations are planning for the next generation, we cannot properly liberalise oil to explore its potential fully, particularly since the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill into law in 2021, not much has changed about the fiscal space in Nigeria. All the inefficiencies and rent-seeking activities within the NNPC still exist till date. But that’s a story for another day.

…there is consensus that democracy is the best political system for economic development, as it fosters accountability, participation, transparency, and human rights, which are conducive to growth and development. Democracies are supposed to be more pro-reform and less prone to corruption and rent-seeking. Moreover, democracy may also enhance social cohesion and stability…

Yet, as I listened to all the speakers, one thing was clear, as usual: that all our problems are well documented and analysed. I also think that all the varieties of solutions are well documented. What seems to be missing is the ‘driver’ with the right competence to jumpstart the country towards progress. So, how do we get the right drivers at all levels to improve our economic performance? What kind of political model will boost economic development in Nigeria? As all our solutions are known, where and how are we going to ‘recruit’ leaders that possess the political willpower to address and implement systemic change.

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After years of military rule, there is consensus that democracy is the best political system for economic development, as it fosters accountability, participation, transparency, and human rights, which are conducive to growth and development. Democracies are supposed to be more pro-reform and less prone to corruption and rent-seeking. Moreover, democracy may also enhance social cohesion and stability by allowing for the peaceful resolution of conflicts and representation of diverse interests. We mostly like to quote China, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan when discussing economic successes, while forgetting that most of those countries are authoritarian in their leadership. But they were not encumbered by our kind of toxic politics. Like others, our country is largely shaped by history, geography, a resources culture, religion, demographics, and external influences, which also play a great role. But we are among the few, parts of whose negative pasts are fully weaponised to our detriment.

The world has equally moved away from political ideology, and the logic of military might is paving way for geoeconomic power – in which the interplay of international economics is the primary national interest. We must fully explore the geoeconomics of international trade, resources, transportation, communication, and finance. 

Solutions? We need leaders who will downplay politics and project economic growth through concrete diversification, while factoring in geoeconomics. The oil will soon dry up. Even if it doesn’t, alternatives are already springing up. The world has equally moved away from political ideology, and the logic of military might is paving way for geoeconomic power – in which the interplay of international economics is the primary national interest. We must fully explore the geoeconomics of international trade, resources, transportation, communication, and finance. This entails having strong policies for trade, investment, financial and monetary matters. Such issues cannot be subjected to local politics or other extraneous considerations.

Our prosperity relies on the quality of our politics, but not everything should be political. Our ambassadors cannot be career politicians. Sound economists should head the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), alongside ministries like Trade, Finance and even Foreign Affairs. Technocrats should be at the helms of Nigeria Ports Authority (NPA), Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN). Rent seeking must be abolished in these areas. Competence should be the main criterion in leadership selection in critical sectors that revolve around security, economics and trade. China has shown us the way. Let us hope the new set of drivers will follow the path. 

Umar Yakubu is with the Centre for Fiscal Transparency and Integrity Watch. Twitter @umaryakubu