Multiple factors could shape the outcome of Nigeria’s 2023 elections (3), By Uche Igwe

…projections may change as the candidates make their final moves to woe undecided voters. For now, the forecast points to a runoff, but it is unclear who will be contesting the runoff and the alliances that may precede it. Beyond the anxiety of the elections, Nigerians collectively celebrate the imminent end of the disaster personified by the Buhari administration, which they consider a misadventure.

Though a late entrant into the race, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party and former governor of Anambra State, Mr Peter Obi, is gathering momentum. He appears quite popular among young people and many dissatisfied elites across the country. His party platform is not mainstream and enjoys a lean network across the country, with many people suggesting that this may adversely affect his chances. Many politicians insist that he lacks the structure to win elections and dismiss him as a mere spoiler. However, Mr Obi’s promises of wide-ranging reforms, especially in the power sector and his commitment to revamping Africa’s ailing and biggest economy, and moving it away from the path of consumption to that of production, appear to resonate among many citizens, including those in the diaspora.

But between Mr Peter Obi’s popularity and electoral victory are some influential stakeholders and elite gatekeepers, who fear his emergence will send them into abrupt retirement. They are, therefore, determined to constitute stumbling blocks to his emergence. Yet the Labour Party candidate appears resolute, energetic and fired up, traversing the country and boldly asking voters to elect him due to his character, competence and compassion.

Stringent Requirements for Victory Place the Ruling Party At An Advantage, But…

Nigeria is a complex heterogeneous country where winning elections often involve building a financial war chest, which can be utilised to lubricate alliances of loyalty and patronage. These structures are expected to provide the necessary leverage for winning elections. For instance, Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is currently in charge in 22 out of 36 states of the country. The constitutional requirement for the winner of the presidential election is that the individual must score the highest number of votes and a required 25% of the votes in at least 24 (two-thirds) of the states in the country.

Coming into the contest with 22 governors confers a considerable advantage on the ruling party’s candidate. In addition, the ruling party controls the security apparatus and other instruments of coercion that can come in handy during an election. However, to win, the candidate in question needs to command more grassroots popularity, and this is where the ruling party is said to be deficient. The party’s candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears unperturbed about this. He is reportedly grounded in the art of money politics and he deployed extensive resources to emerge as his party’s preferred candidate. He is said to have sufficient funds to induce the electorate to favour his party in the coming weeks.

…to the surprise of many, the ruling party went ahead to announce a Muslim-Muslim ticket which sparked stiff opposition, even within its own fold. Many Christian leaders voiced disapproval against the decision, and others quietly started mobilising support for the opposition. As the only Christian among the three top contenders for the Presidency, Mr Peter Obi may benefit massively from block votes from Christians nationwide. Going by available statistics, that could be huge.

Obi Remains the Symbol, But the Energy of the Obidient Movement Is Beyond Him

To market his candidature, supporters of Mr Obi founded a bi-partisan organisation known as the “Obidient” movement across the country. The movement is made of vibrant, media-savvy volunteers predominantly of young age, including many Nigerians in the diaspora. The movement is bubbling with enthusiasm for change and is driven by a shared passion. Devotees claim they are self-motivated and unique, as they claim not to have been offered any form of monetary reward to join or remain in the movement. Instead, volunteers contribute their resources to conduct sensitisation activities and attend campaign rallies.

It is believed that many young people see the platform as one that can be used to amplify their voices, which have been excluded in the past. The determination of these young people remains a credible threat to the status quo; however, many politicians still dismiss the movement as noise in the air that is not sufficiently grounded. While Mr Obi remains the symbol of the movement, the energy propelling it seems to come from the collective feeling of frustration at the ongoing decay and bad governance in the country. Nigeria’s former President Olusegun Obasanjo has endorsed Peter Obi in a widely circulated open letter, insisting he has what it takes to resolve the problems of Nigeria.

Many Christians and Opponents of the Same Faith Ticket Support the Labour Party Candidate

Religion is a very sensitive issue in Nigeria and it remains one of the bases for political mobilisation. The announcement of the ruling APC to adopt a same-faith ticket sparked outrage across the Christian population in the country, especially in Northern Nigeria. Christianity and Islam appear to be equitably represented in the country, with a majority of Christians living in the South and Muslims living in the North. In order to achieve inclusion and balance, the two faiths are reflected in the two highest positions in the land, except in rare cases. However, to the surprise of many, the ruling party went ahead to announce a Muslim-Muslim ticket which sparked stiff opposition, even within its own fold. Many Christian leaders voiced disapproval against the decision, and others quietly started mobilising support for the opposition. As the only Christian among the three top contenders for the Presidency, Mr Peter Obi may benefit massively from block votes from Christians nationwide. Going by available statistics, that could be huge.

With the elections fast approaching, the outlook remains rather hazy as it is difficult to predict a straight victory for any of the top three candidates in the first run. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has repeatedly promised that the elections will be free, fair and a reflection of the voices of the people.

A Likely Tie In the Presidential Elections May Lead To A Runoff

With the elections fast approaching, the outlook remains rather hazy as it is difficult to predict a straight victory for any of the top three candidates in the first run. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has repeatedly promised that the elections will be free, fair and a reflection of the voices of the people. The projection is that the ruling party will gather votes that will give it presence and spread in at least fifteen states. However, in the current circumstances, it is unclear if it will have the numbers to win the election outright. The deployment of technology and the new impetus of young people across the country will likely work to the advantage of the Labour Party candidate.

Mr Peter Obi might win the majority of the youth and Christian votes, which will give him a higher number of votes and could potentially propel him to victory.  However, the probability of a spread for him to be validly elected in the first round remain slim. Yet, Labour Party will win massively in the South-East, South-South and North-Central regions, totalling seventeen states plus the Federal Capital territory. Mr Atiku Abubakar will inherit the residue of the eroding support base of President Buhari, in addition to winning a few states that his party is currently in charge of.

These projections may change as the candidates make their final moves to woe undecided voters. For now, the forecast points to a runoff, but it is unclear who will be contesting the runoff and the alliances that may precede it. Beyond the anxiety of the elections, Nigerians collectively celebrate the imminent end of the disaster personified by the Buhari administration, which they consider a misadventure.

Uche Igwe is a Visiting Fellow at Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He can be reached on u.igwe@lse.ac.uk