COVID-19 vaccine: Nigeria flying or drowning?, By John Adeoti

Instead of adopting a vaccine mandate, a more helpful approach is education and enlightenment campaigns. While this is ongoing, Nigeria should assert herself as a COVID-resilient nation, and hence, vaccine mandates should apply only to persons travelling out of and into Nigeria. The Nigeria COVID vaccine policy should presently emphasise the vaccination of international travelers in order to make the international community feel secure and also make residents in Nigeria feel safe.

At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, I wrote an article which expressed the urgency of an approach that prioritises Nigeria’s socio-economic development in the response to the pandemic. The article, which was written in May 2020, emphasised the need to end the lockdown policy in Nigeria because it was damaging the economic opportunities the pandemic inadvertently provided for Nigeria. The logic behind this reasoning was simple: if the incidence of COVID-19 had been relatively mild or low in China, Europe and North America, while Africa happened to be the region with high incidence of COVID-19, there would have been no lockdown in China, Europe or North America. Lockdowns would be slammed only on African countries. The pestilence of Ebola disease, in recent years, attests to this. The argument then was, why should Nigeria, which is fortunate to have a remarkably low COVID incidence and fatality follow the policy of protracted lockdowns by the Western and Eastern nations with extremely high incidences of COVID-19? Nigeria and many African countries have since learnt from the limitations of lockdowns, and have rightly adopted policies that demonstrate that African development practitioners and policy makers have sufficient knowledge to be independent in formulating development policies that are original to Africa. It is time to summon courage and exercise intellectual freedom in matters that are transnational, setting Africa first in thoughts and actions, while at the same time collaborating for global development.

In this article, I recall some of the issues raised on the lockdown policy because they remain germane for the challenge of the COVID-19 vaccine development and hesitancy.

1. No foothold for coronavirus and its new variants in Nigeria

COVID-19 is real and it has infected people all over Nigeria. However, coronavirus, along with its new variants, have had no foothold in Nigeria to prevent a significant proportion of the population from engaging in social and economic activities. Most people, especially the rural and urban poor populations, have not changed their lifestyles in any noteworthy way, and there is no evidence that COVID-19 has done more damage to the people than the usual killers, such as malaria, cholera, diabetics, hypertension, HIV/AIDs, etc. Why then should we continue to fear and panic, like in Europe, America or China? Nigeria should wake up and live according to the reality that for once, the country is not particularly disadvantaged by COVID-19. Rather, we should be like Madagascar and Egypt, offering the world solutions to end the spread of COVID-19 and its new variants. Our research infrastructure in universities and research institutes should be renovated and upgraded, and their management given a clear mandate to develop local preventive and curative measures for COVID-19, alongside the development and production of the COVID-19 vaccine. What the world urgently needs are solutions that would defeat coronavirus and its attendant variants. This could be a source of new wealth and foreign exchange for Nigeria and other African countries. If the West and East refuse our COVID vaccine and other standardised protocols to prevent or cure COVID-19, we should be brave enough to apply our vaccines and preventive/curative measures locally. After all, we are a large market of 213 million people in Nigeria, and Africa is already a 1.3 billion market.

The current policy of investing in the purchase of vaccines appear to be limited in the help it could offer, given the opportunity cost of investing the huge fund spent on vaccine purchase in local research initiatives that could produce a Nigerian or African COVID-19 vaccine and/or curative measures. If Nigeria makes appropriate investment in Research and Development (R&D) to produce the coronavirus vaccine, it could lead to a major breakthrough that would open the floodgate for development of other vaccines hitherto imported or that have been non-existent. This approach would not only create jobs in Nigeria, but also contribute to reducing the pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserve.   

Nigeria could attract investors seeking locations where, among other key incentives, the workforce is less susceptible to COVID-19… From the experience so far, it appears that COVID-19 has come to stay and the world must adjust to live with and manage this new disease. Capital targeted at greenfield investments has great potential to yield good returns in Nigeria, given the evidence that coronavirus has been unable to demobilise Nigerian workers.

2. Opportunity for new production lines and greenfield investments

Coronavirus has ravaged the world and brought sorrow to many families and nations. There is, however, a bright side to the darkness of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The panic around the world would apparently lead to shake-ups and realignments in investment destinations. New product lines would emerge arising from the debut of COVID-19. Nigeria could attract investors seeking locations where, among other key incentives, the workforce is less susceptible to COVID-19. Nigeria’s organised private sector, including industrial production firms, have been working in situ, coronavirus not-withstanding. From the experience so far, it appears that COVID-19 has come to stay and the world must adjust to live with and manage this new disease. Capital targeted at greenfield investments has great potential to yield good returns in Nigeria, given the evidence that coronavirus has been unable to demobilise Nigerian workers.

3. COVID-19 management policies in Nigeria

The debut of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria brought panic, trembling and fear, as in many other nations. But whatever reservations any critic of Nigeria’s response might have, the unity displayed and the unison of response are commendable. We all agreed that coronavirus is an enemy that must be fought and defeated soonest. The display of professionalism by our health personnel on the frontline, the prompt commitment by the private sector, and the support provided by various state governments exemplify what Nigeria can achieve when we are united. The prompt and high-level response to COVID-19 by the Federal Government, through the Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan packaged by the Office of the Vice President in July 2020, was timely in providing critical stimulus for the economy, which was assaulted by a second recession within five years.

It is also impressive that Nigeria has embarked on a policy of developing a Nigerian-made COVID-19 vaccine. Besides, the Nigerian government, in collaboration with its West African counterparts, recently developed the West African Pandemic Readiness Programme, aimed at localising the development of COVID-19 vaccines in Africa. Under this programme, Merck, a leading science and technology company, announced in December 2021 that it has signed an agreement with a biotechnology company, Innovative Biotech, to design the manufacturing process for the first vaccine production facility in Nigeria. This will potentially reduce the reliance of Nigeria on Western countries for vaccine allocations, and thereby put Nigeria among the league of countries like South Africa and Egypt, which have made strides towards producing affordable and high-quality vaccines. Egypt has already succeeded in this respect by developing an approved COVID-19 vaccine. 

The current attempt to enforce vaccine mandates in Nigeria is counter-productive in effect, not only because Nigeria lacks the capacity to make the vaccine widely available, but also because it contributes to the needless opening of our local market to a foreign good which we can strategically produce in the near future. Nigeria does not need to drown by enforcing policies that are patently out of tune with her social and economic realities.

4. COVID-19 in Nigeria and vaccine hesitancy

The sudden and widespread tragedy of COVID-19 provoked Western countries, along with some emerging economies, to spring into action by developing vaccines within a space of one year to curb the spread of the virus. Such vaccines should ordinarily have taken years to develop and achieve certification. However, in spite of the availability of vaccines in Western countries, there has been hesitation by citizens in taking the vaccines. These hesitations are more pronounced in developing countries, especially in Africa, and have been attributed to a range of factors such as the efficacy of the vaccines, as well as the possible side effects of vaccine administration.

In order to reduce vaccine hesitancy, Western countries have taken to advocating for the mass vaccination of their citizens, alongside enforcing mandatory rules for vaccine administration in some organisations. This is expected to adequately reduce the spread of COVID-19. Invariably, this may be a good strategy for the Western world but is it also the best option for Nigeria? Are there other options that may better fit into the Nigerian setting? One of such options could be adopting a multicomponent approach, which will include dialogue among stakeholders, in order to come up with the best approach for Nigeria. Nigeria is traditionally vaccine hesitant, much more with the doubts and accessibility constraints associated with the coronavirus vaccine. 

Instead of adopting a vaccine mandate, a more helpful approach is education and enlightenment campaigns. While this is ongoing, Nigeria should assert herself as a COVID-resilient nation, and hence, vaccine mandates should apply only to persons travelling out of and into Nigeria. The Nigeria COVID vaccine policy should presently emphasise the vaccination of international travelers in order to make the international community feel secure and also make residents in Nigeria feel safe. The current limited supply of COVID vaccines would suffice for this, and Nigeria can then concentrate her efforts and resources on research and development (R&D) aimed at producing a Nigerian made COVID vaccine and cure for COVID-19. A breakthrough for Nigeria in the manufacture of the COVID vaccine and/or cure for COVID-19 would boost international recognition and respect for Nigeria, improve Nigeria’s bargaining power in international negotiations, and potentially improve Nigeria’s export of manufactures and international competitiveness. This is another opportunity for Nigeria to fly and fly high. The current attempt to enforce vaccine mandates in Nigeria is counter-productive in effect, not only because Nigeria lacks the capacity to make the vaccine widely available, but also because it contributes to the needless opening of our local market to a foreign good which we can strategically produce in the near future. Nigeria does not need to drown by enforcing policies that are patently out of tune with her social and economic realities.

John Adeoti is a Professor of Development Economics at the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER), Ibadan, Nigeria.