Why coup is near impossible in today’s Nigeria – Geoffrey Onyeama

Although Nigeria has had many military coups since its independence in 1960, it is unlikely to experience such an unconstitutional change of government in the near future, foreign minister Geoffrey Onyeama said.

“… it would not be that easy to have a coup in today’s Nigeria,” he told PREMIUM TIMES in an exclusive interview.

According to Mr Onyeama, with over 24 years of changing governments democratically, and stronger democratic institutions, “we have evolved beyond that and the country is vast and a bit more complicated.”

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has had sustained civil rule since 1999, unlike some of its West African neighbours like Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso who have experienced military coups in recent years.

“The world is increasingly moving from democracy to illiberalism, and in West Africa’s case, the pace of the slide towards illiberal democracy, and now into full-blown military dictatorship is alarming and shows that democracy on the continent is not in a good place at the moment,” said Cheta Nwanze of SB Morgen Intelligence in an interview with this newspaper last year.

He added that successful coups in one region create a dangerous pretext for others to follow especially in the absence of real consequences.

Mr Nwanze acknowledged the possibility of a coup in Nigeria, he believes that ‘’a coup in Nigeria will be a tragedy of epic proportions.”

Just before the general elections in Nigeria, there were suspicions of a group plotting to foist an interim government in Nigeria, as stated by the outgoing Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai in an interview with PREMIUM TIMES.

Since August 2020, five coups have occurred in three West African countries – Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea. The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau have weathered attempted overthrows. And in neighbouring Chad, an unconstitutional change of government was led by Lieutenant General Mahamat Idriss Déby after his father’s death in 2021.

Mass disaffection for the government, insecurity, a young population, inflation, corruption etc. are factors that some believe could trigger an unconstitutional change in government.

The disaffection for government is exemplified in a 2022 survey which found that more than half (53 per cent) of Nigerians “agree and strongly agree” that Nigeria is polarised in the context of faith, ethnicity, and religion. The survey also states that Nigeria is more polarised in 2022 than it was four years ago.

The just concluded elections gave credence to this survey and made vivid the division in the country.

In parts of the country, especially Lagos and Rivers states, the elections were characterised by ethnic profiling, hate speech and violence which was widely condemned by several groups.

Mr Onyeama, however, believes Nigeria has developed a resilience that would not allow its inherent contradictions degenerate.

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“There is a certain resilience that we have developed in the country that will equip us to come up through these,” he said.

He said Nigeria and Nigerians have been through all sorts of challenges and have become resilient and can weather all the storms, respond and reshape those stresses to its unity and peace.