The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted that the length of the growing season for the year 2022 will range between 96 to 310 days across the country.
NiMet’s Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) report released Tuesday last week in Abuja, predicted that most parts of the country are expected to have a normal length of growing season.
“Areas around Kwara, Oyo, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi are likely to experience shorter growing seasons,” the report noted.
However, NiMet said, “The northern Plateau, southern Kaduna, Edo, and Imo States are expected to have a longer length of season.”
The SCP is produced annually to advise the government and Nigerian citizens on all aspects of weather and climate.
It gives an outlook of various climate variables, such as rainfall and temperature patterns in Nigeria for the year.
“These forecasts offer the stakeholders and the general society early warning information for timely preparedness against potential hazards associated with heavy rains, flood, and high temperatures, as well as dry spells in parts of the country,” Mansur Matazu, NiMet’s director general said.
Key highlights of the 2022 SCP
“Rainfall onset”
According to the report, Rainfall onset dates are predicted to be about the same as long-term average dates in most parts of the country.
It said the 2022 rainfall is expected to start from coastal states of Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom in late February and around July in the northern states such as Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Katsina and Zamfara.
However, the report said Ekiti, Ondo, Edo and Kaduna States are anticipated to experience earlier than normal onset when compared to the long-term averages.
“Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, parts of Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Bayelsa and Rivers states are likely to experience delayed onset of rainfall,” the report said.
Rainfall cessation
Rainfall cessation dates across most parts of the country for 2022 are predicted to be near long term average conditions ( September – December) with possibilities of earlier cessation in a few states such as Nasarawa, Benue, Kwara, Oyo and Anambra, the report said.
It said the end of season is expected to be prolonged over parts of Cross River, Imo in the south, while in the north, parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Kano, Bauchi, and Yobe States are also anticipated to experience prolonged cessation dates.
“Thus, cessation of rainfall is anticipated to begin in the north, from early-October to midNovember, in the central states, and finally ceasing around mid-December in the southernmost and coastal parts of the country,” NiMet said in the report.
Rainfall amounts
NiMet said the predicted rainfall amount across the country is expected to be near the long-term average rainfall, ranging from 400 mm to 800 mm in the northern states such as Sokoto, Katsina Jigawa, Yobe and parts of Borno.
The weather forecast agency explained that central states such as FCT, Nasarawa, Taraba, Kogi, Benue as well as Ekiti, Osun and Oyo in the southwest are likely to have 1200 mm to 1600 mm.
It said parts of Bayelsa, Akwa-Ibom, Delta, and Cross River states are predicted to have annual rainfall amounts of 3000 mm and above.
Dry spells
According to the NiMet SCP report, prediction shows that in May to June 2022, moderate to severe dry spells lasting 15 to 20 days are likely to occur in most states in the north.
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However, mild to moderate dry spells are anticipated in the months of July and August.
“The states that are likely to be affected are mild (less than 8 days), moderate (up to 15 days) and severe (20 days or more),” the report said.
Little dry season (LDS)
In 2022, NiMet predicts that the Southwestern part of Nigeria will experience the LDS that characterises the climate in that part of the country.
It said signs of the LDS may begin to manifest by late July to early August 2022.
“Severe LDS that may last up to 25 days or longer is anticipated to affect Lagos and Kwara States, while parts of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, and Ekiti States will experience low to moderate LDS that may last 14 to 20 days,” NiMet said.
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