UPDATED: Nigerians want competitive elections but don’t trust INEC – Survey

A majority of Nigerian respondents believe that elections are the best method to choose their leaders, according to the latest Afrobarometer (www.Afrobarometer.org) survey. But as they approach their presidential election in February, fewer than one-fourth of respondents say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Large majorities of survey respondents say that multiple political parties are needed to provide voters with a genuine choice and that once elections are over, the losing side should accept defeat and work with the government to help the nation flourish.

While a majority of citizens believe that the last national election in 2019 was generally free and fair, popular trust in the INEC – the institution responsible for ensuring a free and fair election – is declining.

Key findings

• Most Nigerians (71 per cent) support elections as the best way to choose their leaders (Figure 1).
• A similarly clear majority (69 per cent) says Nigeria needs many political parties to ensure that voters have a real choice, a 13-percentage-point rebound from 2020 (Figure 2).
• More than three-fourths (78 per cent) of respondents say that once an election is over, the losing side should accept defeat and cooperate with the government to help it develop the country, rather than monitoring and criticising it (Figure 3).
• A majority (56 per cent) of respondents say the last national election, in 2019, was generally free and fair, but almost four in 10 (38 per cent) believe otherwise (Figure 4).
• Only 23 per cent of Nigerians say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) “somewhat” or “a lot,” while more than three-fourths (78 per cent) express “just a little” or no trust at all in the election-management body (Figure 5).
• Trust in the INEC has declined by 12 percentage points since 2017 (Figure 6).

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Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Eight survey rounds in up to 39 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 9 surveys (2021/2022) are currently underway. Afrobarometer’s national partners conduct face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.

The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,600 adult citizens in March 2022. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Nigeria in 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2020.

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