2017: Nigeria will be out of recession in second quarter – Don

National Bureau of Statistics building

The Vice-Chancellor of Samuel Adegboyega University, Edo State, Ben Aigbokhan, has expressed optimism that Nigeria will be out of the economic recession in the second quarter of the year.

Mr. Aigbokhan told the News Agency of Nigeria, NAN, on Wednesday in Abuja that the government had been working to address root cause of the economic crisis.

The don said the main cause of the recession was the drop in oil price, which affected the country’s foreign reserve.

“If we want to be honest with ourselves, what affected the economy was the drop in oil price; when we didn’t have foreign reserve to back the Naira, it collapsed.

“We don’t have foreign reserve to import things to make prices rise.

“The price of oil is picking up at the international market and the country’s oil production is also picking up.

“The production is beginning to pick up because pipeline vandalism in Niger Delta has been addressed,” he said.

Mr. Aigbokhan, who is also the President, Nigerian Economic Society, said with the development, government would be able to do what it could not in 2016 in terms of development.

He said the government may not be able to do much in this quarter, saying, “certainly in the next quarter we should be coming out of recession’’.

“Oil price is picking up and oil production is picking up, vandalism is reducing.

“So, if we now have more output and with the new price rise, we will have more foreign exchange that will enable the government to address some of the economic problems,” he said.

According to him, in any economic course, there is a theory of economy circle.

He said that recession was one of the faces in economy circle.

“Recession does not last indefinitely and with a serious government, recession will not last more than a year.

“A government that is responsive to the yearnings of the electorate will do everything possible to address it because they know if they don’t do something, they will be voted out.

“By the time the economy has been nose diving in a recession for first and second quarter, at most by the third quarter, they should be doing something that will bring the economy out.

“We have had two quarters so far, and the public is crying out for action, so I am optimistic that the country will be out of recession soon,” he said.

He added that the fact that President Muhammadu Buhari started the year with the fulfilment of one of his campaign promises of payment of N5,000 was a good development.

The don said the payment of the stipend to most vulnerable people was a proof that the government would do everything possible to get the country out of recession.

The Vice-President, Yemi Osinbajo, had on Tuesday announced that Mr. Buhari had began the payment of N5,000 each to one million poor Nigerians under its Condition Cash Transfer Programme.



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  • thusspokez

    I wonder if Mr. Aigbokhan was speaking purely as an academic or as spokesperson for the government. He sounded very much like Garba Shehu or Lai Mohammed.

    “If we want to be honest with ourselves, what affected the economy was the drop in oil price; when we didn’t have foreign reserve to back the Naira, it collapsed.

    ‘Drop in oil price’ affected the economy does not mean that ‘drop in oil price’ caused the recession. In this were true, then all producing countries would be in recession.

    • Paul Young

      Low foreign reserves more or less caused the recession. And we all know our foreign reserve is directly proportional to oil. While the government will be reluctant to admit this because it reminds the Niger Delta militants that oil is the only thing sustaining the economy, it doesnt change the fact that its true and it must be urgently corrected. Oh and by the way more than half of oil producing countries are in recession or in serious financial crisis. Lets even assume that they arent for a minute. How many oil producing countries
      1) Have a population of almost 180 million people
      2) Depend almost solely on oil for the lion share of their revenue (probably 80-90% of our revenue)
      3) Import as much as we do
      4) Have very meagre foreign reserves as we do. $28bn as at May 2015. Compare that with Algeria, also an OPEC member and also going through financial crisis but had over $160bn as at May 2015, which has now been depleted to $114bn while they try to shore up the economy. Algeria has a population of 39 million people. $46bn so far spent in the last 15 months or so trying to save their economy is way more than our foreign reserves was as at May 2015, and this is not counting the almost $20bn Algeria spent from their foreign reserves in the first quarter of 2015 trying to cushion the effects of low oil prices. Even the $114 which they have currently is considered small but is 4 times what we had saved as at May 2015 and our population is almost 5 times theirs. What else do you expect to be the outcome? People like you are never objective in your arguments

      For your perusal

      “Algeria’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by $19.02 billion to $159.9 billion in the first quarter of 2015 due to the collapse in global crude oil prices, the central bank said.

      The North African OPEC member relies on energy revenues for 60 percent of its state budget, and oil and gas exports account for 95 percent of total sales abroad.” Culled from Reuters

      • thusspokez

        Low foreign reserves more or less caused the recession.

        Every serious economy indicators were pointing to recession ahead; and yet the government did nothing — no economic team’ no minister in place because Buhari’s dithering. Knowing this, why didn’t the government not borrowed to cover the shortfalls?

        Oh and by the way more than half of oil producing countries are in recession or in serious financial crisis.

        “more than half of oil” is not valid proof that ‘drop in oil price’ caused the recession.

        Even with a small rise in the price of oil in 2017, I don’t see Nigeria coming out of recession any soon. The job market is not improving; and companies are still closing down. The government only have gimmick to try to fiddle the jobless figure with short job programmes.

        • Paul Young

          You said if it was oil price that caused the recession in Nigeria, all other oil producing countries will be in recession too. I have now told you that in fact 80% of OPEC countries are in recession too, and the only ones that are not in recession are those who saved a lot for the rainy day(something your hero couldn’t do) and now you are speaking from the other side of your mouth. My friend your double standard is ridiculous

          • thusspokez

            (something your hero couldn’t do)

            And who is my hero, stµpid!

            Why is it that some of you can’t remain civil throughout a discussion? Somehow, you always have to be churlish and turn a civilised discussion into an ogogoro bar brawl.

          • Paul Young

            Perhaps because thats your level, i have to take it to your level, fo0lish mumu go to school

      • Eniola

        Do you even think you are making any sense here at all ? See the LAKE rice wonder, It took two state governors not the federal government to do that. Buhari defunded the cassava bread program that made sure part of money spent on bread goes back to cassava farmers, lot of new official cars have been purchased only 30 for frsc was purchased from innoson by fg. No policy framework on job creation, agriculture All policies Buhari met that are on verge of succeeding he could not consolidate them. All they say is slogans infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure is there no infrastructure in Spain, Italy Greece Ukraine, or Portugal ? All those economies are struggling presently with serious unemployment and poor economy. There are lot of spanish here in UK looking for jobs our people in government keep saying what others have been saying nothing new or great innovation from this government. Is this how we will continue as a nation ? All you just want to make excuses for Buhari’s failure how disgusting ?

        • Paul Young

          My friend read my comment well and understand it. I didn’t say the government isn’t partly to blame with bad policies. What i am saying is simple. No matter how bad the policies are, if we had $50bn in savings we will never be in recession now. Previous governments also had some very bad policies too as well as severe wastage. Are you saying that All those European countries u mentioned are also all ruled by clueless leaders?

  • Eniola

    The heading should have read ”2017: Nigeria will be out of recession in second quarter – Academic Illiterate”

  • ganiyu opeyemy

    Hope so