If Nigeria’s presidential election was held today, Peter Obi of the Labour Party would win, according to an opinion poll conducted by NOI Polls.
The poll, commissioned by ANAP Foundation, was conducted this month and suggests a three-horse presidential race between Mr Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
However, as of the time of this report, the researchers had not made public the methodology of the poll and how many people were sampled in gathering the data.
“The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13 per cent each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3 per cent of voters proposing to vote for him,” a statement by ANAP foundation announcing the result of the poll shows.
The statement added that the Labour Party candidate led the pack in virtually all the age categories.
The result, however, showed that about 33 per cent of the respondents were undecided while another 15 per cent refused to disclose who they would vote for; an indication that Mr Obi’s lead, according to the poll, is surmountable.
“Mr Peter Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him completely
from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21 per cent, 13 per cent and 13 per cent respectively,” ANAP said in its statement.
“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 39 per cent of women are undecided versus 27 per cent of male
Nigeria will hold her presidential elections in February 2023 with campaigns set to start at the end of September.
The poll put the percentage of registered voters at 99 per cent in the North-east; 90 per cent in the South-south, the North-central, and the North-west respectively. The lowest registered voter percentages were in the South-east with 88 per cent and the South-west with 85 per cent.
“When asked if respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the presidency, data gathered showed that 99 per cent of the respondents were aware of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. 98 per cent were aware of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95 per cent were aware of Mr Peter Obi of LP and 74 per cent were aware of Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55 per cent in terms of name recognition.”
The researchers said the top five reasons why voters were more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections include: “the need to tackle insecurity (45 per cent), the economy (20 per cent), education (9 per cent), unemployment (7 per cent) and poverty alleviation (4 per cent).”
Similarly, 46 per cent of the respondents would love to see their preferred presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates spanning across topics like their party manifestos, issues of security, economy, education, job creation, healthcare and agriculture amongst others.
“It is worthy of note that 69 per cent of those aged 18-25, 76 per cent of those aged 26-35, 77 per cent of those aged 36-45, 87 per cent of those aged 46-60 and 89 per cent of those aged 61+ responded saying that they would vote in the coming elections.”
The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years.
“On average, the poll shows that almost 8 in 10 registered voters are certain that they would be voting in the next presidential election. If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections.”
But, while the results show some significant trends, the poll said it is key to note that the battle ahead lies in the hands of the swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate takes the lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential elections.
“In summary, our September 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are large enough to turn the tables. However, Anap Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to establish the front runners and so our subsequent polls will concentrate on the 4 leading candidates only.”