#Nigeria2015: Analysts say President Jonathan may get overall majority, but run-off likely

Election

Zainab Usman, a doctoral candidate in International Development at Oxford University and her colleague, Dr. Olly Owen,  British, worked on this scholarly analysis of the coming general elections in Nigeria for months. They have now published their report, making projections on the likely outcomes of the election.

How accurate the predictions would be remains to be seen. But it is an interesting analysis that anyone interested in the election anywhere in the world should read.

Major Highlights

In order to win the Presidency in 2015, the successful party will have to control the majority of Nigeria’s 36 state Governorships.

In the 2015 elections half of the State Governors will have completed their maximum two terms, so state-level elections are likely to be extremely competitive across the country.

Of the 28 governorship elections taking place, 18 states (or two-thirds) will have vacant seats. 10 of these 18 states have 40.9% of all registered voters.

This numerical analysis indicates both the PDP and APC could each secure 17 states in Governorship elections.

To win, a Presidential candidate needs an overall majority and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the states (24 states). On current indications, if President Goodluck Jonathan runs as PDP candidate he is likely to get an overall majority. However, he may not automatically get the necessary one-quarter of the vote in two-thirds of states and the FCT.

Therefore if voting patterns are similar to 2011 a run-off election situation would be likely. This would be a historic first under Nigeria’s present electoral system.
However, this run-off outcome is likely to be determined by the choice of candidates put up by the main APC opposition party and the issue of North-South ‘zoning’.

It is difficult to predict the outcome of this run-off. If it does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may further weaken its chances at the subsequent gubernatorial elections given that half of the seats are vacant.
2011’s results are only a useful guide to 2015 if conditions stay the same, including INEC’s conduct in voter registration and election management.

Therefore, with high incentives for many actors to rig, it will be important for stakeholders in democratic consolidation to focus on issues such as registration and collation, which are likely to be hot in all states.

The Rationale

As the 2015 elections inch nearer, the spaces of Nigerian public discourse are beginning to fill with speculation as to the chances of various contenders, the possible alignments of political forces, and likely outcomes.

Yet most of this discussion is conjectural and instinctive rather than analytical. Here, we attempt instead to make some projections about 2015’s elections by generating conclusions from 2011’s election results, turnouts and voter numbers.

Our central assumption is that since 1999, the parties which have controlled Nigeria’s 36 state Governorships have been able to strongly influence the result of Presidential elections in each state.

In 2011, President Goodluck Jonathan won the election with 22,495,187 total votes across the country, winning not only states where the ruling PDP governed, but also all states in the South-West apart from Osun, thanks to an electoral pact between the PDP and the now-defunct ACN which ran most South-Western states.

Although President Jonathan did not win in 12 Northern states (including nine which returned PDP Governors but where a majority voted for Muhammadu Buhari of the now-defunct CPC for President), he was able to get over the 25% of votes threshold in all but four (all Northern) states; of which only two were PDP. This indicates that local voter appeal can be an important modifier of the power of incumbency.

But in 2015, the landscape appears very different. As control of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) are key to how national elections are won, we must first examine the state-level elections. In 2011, one of the authors analysed gubernatorial election results (as posted by Nigeria Elections Coalition).

Some interesting findings emerged:

  1. Nigeria’s elections conform to a rule of thumb, (as propounded by political scientists such as Nic Cheeseman) about elections in Africa and more widely: when incumbents run for re-election, they win over 85% of the time and typically with over 60% of the vote – in 2011, 17 of Nigeria’s 20 then-incumbent State Governors were re-elected – exactly 85%, with an average winning vote of 69%.
  2. Although based on a small sample, this margin of victory was similar whether the winning Governor was from the national ruling PDP or another party, suggesting that state-level incumbency might be more important than being part of a national ruling party.
  3. Any candidate contesting for a ‘vacant’ Governorship is more likely to win, and by a larger margin, if they are from the same party as the previous incumbent. (See calculations below).

As well as pointing to the importance of incumbency, and the role of constitutional mechanisms such as term limits in maintaining democracy, these results also offer a way to predicting possible outcomes the 2015 polls. In what follows, we explore what the figures may tell us.

We are aware of two weaknesses in our methodology. One is the small size of the data sample – drawn from just one previous national election under the same conditions.  The other is our assumptions – for 2011’s data to have predictive value, a number of conditions must remain the same; we debate whether or not they are likely to in the section on ‘assumptions’.

The Political Landscape in the run-up to 2015

The first thing to note is that the alignment of political forces today is very different to 2011. Whereas the PDP went into the 2011 elections controlling 27 state governments, currently it controls 20 and can rely on the likely support of two more Governors, from Ondo (Labour) and Anambra (APGA), making 22 in total. The APC opposition meanwhile controls 14 states, as illustrated below. This is a rapidly changing dynamic however, as alliances continue to be built and reconfigured.

NigeriaElectionsMap1Secondly, 20 Governors entered the 2011 elections in the strong position of first-term incumbents looking to come back; but in 2015, only 10 of 28 Gubernatorial incumbents will be re-contesting – 7 for APC and 3 for PDP.  The other 18 races will be ‘open’ with no incumbent, while 8 states where elections are held at different times will not be holding Governorship polls.

This means more elections will be competitive, with fewer places where an incumbent Governor can be sure to ‘deliver’ a state’s vote for their Presidential candidate. This makes results even less predictable, but as 2011 shows – even outgoing parties without an incumbent re-contesting retain a marginal advantage. We can therefore assume that states which have been run by a particular party will still be more likely to support that party’s Presidential candidate.

Assumptions

The usefulness of 2011’s figures in predicting outcomes of 2015 rests on seven assumptions. We note that all of these are open to debate:

  1. There will be elections in 2015: We work on the assumption that any attempt to delay these could lead to a major constitutional crisis and radically alter political alignments. It is possible that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) could choose not to hold elections in states where the security situation prevents it; they are legally entitled to do so. Currently, three states (Borno, Yobe and Adamawa) in the North-East are under State of Emergency, although Yobe’s successful by-elections show that elections are not necessarily impossible under such conditions. Still, if elections were not held, it would not alter the conditions which we note as likely to lead to a Presidential run-off.
  2. INEC’s commitment to running free and fair elections will remain the same, although the electoral commission remains restricted in some aspects of capacity and control, and local-level implementation varies. Recent trends such as decisions not to use electronic voting machines in Ekiti and Osun elections may cast doubt on this. Overall, INEC’s management of state elections has improved since Anambra in December 2013, but it remains to be seen if INEC can scale up the achievement to a national exercise.
  3. Improvements made in 2011 will remain and restrict rigging to the post-collation process: Whereas 2007’s poorly-run election allowed votes to be completely fabricated, registration and accreditation has since been tightened, so that the main avenues for rigging are more restricted to the use of actual voters, or at least their cards. This might mean renewed attempts to register voters fraudulently in order to increase numbers, but the only other avenue for outright rigging would be post-poll collation at local levels, which should therefore be a focus for observer groups.
  4. 2015 will be an overwhelmingly two-party race between the PDP and the APC in the Presidential elections: this currently seems self-evident, and the APGA and Labour parties are likely to support PDP.
  5. Presidential polls will take place before Governorship elections: as on previous occasions, this means that incumbent governors are influential in controlling the presidential vote. If the order were reversed, the rule may not hold true.
  6. The PDP candidate will be President Goodluck Jonathan, whereas the APC would likely select a Northern Muslim candidate: This is a fundamental assumption, and we can question whether voting patterns would still cleave to 2011’s alignments if the APC candidate was for instance from the South-West, or was a Northern Christian. Equally, there is the more remote possibility that the PDP may choose a different Presidential candidate.
  7. Election security management will reflect that of 2011, in which security agencies were widely acknowledged to have improved their practices: Many new security challenges have evolved since 2011 but if the agencies can stick to their record of improvement, the environment may remain predictable. If not, or if attempted disruptions overwhelm them, the outcomes will be much less clear.

Unknown Factors

Turnouts are crucial but hard to predict. If a voter register is realistic, party mobilisation and levels of public interest in the candidates dictate the turnout. Anambra’s 2013 election, with a 25% voter turnout, offers a stark indicator of what happens when they are disinterested. Reports by civil society observers were that large numbers of residents stayed at home, or even sold their voter cards before election.

Such low turnouts can favour riggers, as they allow lots of unused votes to be creatively redistributed, in front of a largely apathetic public which may not enthusiastically defend its mandate. And, as we have seen, incumbents have a greater ability to rig due to their control of resources and the environment.

As PDP are incumbent in more states, this might at first glance seem to favour that party more, but as there are a number of states in which the party may struggle to clear the 25% margin, low turnouts are a big risk for PDP too.

Money is hugely important in politics, but is of limited use without genuine support. Paid-for support is expensive and unreliable, while dedicated support is more consistent (and cheaper). While incumbents may have more to spend, they may not necessarily have more to offer in mobilising voter enthusiasm.

Historically, parties’ appeal to voters has been based on ethno-regional or faith identities, although the 1999 and 2007 elections broke a mould with three major parties (the PDP, ANPP and AD/ACN) all picking Southern Christian and later, Northern Muslim Presidential candidates respectively.

For 2015, parties have so far made little effort to formulate policy messages, and membership structures vary from very weak to strong between parties across the country. While the PDP has struggled to convince the electorate of its ability to deliver on key issues such as poverty reduction, security or combatting corruption, the APC’s positioning as a more progressive party has been watered-down by the large number of floor-crossers the party has incorporated and its tactic of negative campaigning has also alienated some potential supporters.

It will be interesting to see to what extent both parties are willing or able to mobilise voters with policy messages rather than simply appeals to identity politics.

The Numbers

The current political alignment of state government is as follows. Note that APGA and Labour Party states have tended to ally with the ruling PDP party.

  • People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – 20
  • All Progressives Congress (APC) – 14
  • All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – 1
  • Labour Party (LP) – 1

2011 Results Analysis

In May 2011, gubernatorial polls took place and results were announced in 25 states, excluding the Imo (re-run) and 9 others which were not due for re-election. 20 states had one-term sitting governors running for re-election, and 5 states had vacant seats after Governors had completed two terms. Their average share of the votes looked like this:

Category Number of States Average winning share of vote
1. Sitting Governor gets second term 17 69.01%
2. Non-incumbent candidate wins 8 54.08%
2a> where opponent beats one-term sitting governor who is running for re-election 3 47.3%
2b> where candidate wins ‘empty’ seat where there is no first-term governor running for re-election 5 58.16%
2b.1> of which candidate from immediate previously ruling party wins ‘empty’ seat 3 62.7%
2b.2> of which candidate from party previously in opposition wins ‘empty’ seat 2 51.15%
3. Average winning share of PDP sitting Governors 15 68.22%
4. Average winning share of non-PDP sitting Governors 2 74.95%

Based on this we can see that in 2011 elections being an incumbent governor typically gives an advantage of 15% when seeking re-election (69.01 – 54.08 = 14.93%).

The marginal advantage of being an incumbent party contesting a ‘vacant’ seat – i.e. where a governor has completed two terms and is not coming back – is calculated by subtracting the average vote-share of winning non-incumbents from the average vote share of those who won seats just vacated by the same party: 11.2% (62.7% – 51.5%)

Some other observations:

  • If you’re contesting for an ‘empty’ seat, you’re likely to win by a larger share of the vote (62%) if you’re from the party which was just in power than if you’re from an opposition party (51%).
  • Anyone not in power at the start of the race (whether national opposition or ruling party, whether running against a sitting governor or an empty seat) typically gets a lower margin of victory (47%) than incumbents running for re-election (69%).
  • The advantage of being an incumbent first-term governor running for re-election is not larger for PDP Governors. In fact, non-PDP incumbents won with average 75% share of the votes, whereas PDP incumbents won an average of 68%. It thus seems that being in power locally matters more than being allied with the national ruling party, although more research and larger samples would be needed to prove this.

2015 Election Projections

Using the trends in the 2011 elections, if other conditions remain equal, based on the current landscape, we make the following preliminary projections.

State Governorships

There are 28 gubernatorial seats up for election in 2015:

10 incumbents are contesting for a second term

  • Three are in PDP-controlled states
  • Seven are in APC-controlled states.

18 vacant seats

  • Fourteen are in PDP-controlled states
  • Four are in APC-controlled states
Category Current No. of State Governorships Projections of State Governorships to be won 2015
Incumbents: Based on 85% Rule
APC 7 6 in APC states = 6
PDP 3 3 in PDP states1 in APC states = 4
Seats to be vacant: Based on winning vote share in 2011 gubernatorial elections: 60-40%
APC 4 2 in APC states6 in PDP states = 8
PDP 14 8 in PDP states2 in APC states = 10
Assumed to be incumbent in states with no election in February 2015
APC 3 3
PDP 3 3
APGA 1 1
LABOUR 1 1
TOTAL
APC 14 17
PDP 20 17
APGA 1 1
LABOUR 1 1
TOTAL 36 36

Projections:

  • If the rule that incumbents win 85% of the time with a 60% share of votes holds, for the 10 states with incumbents running for re-election in the governorship elections, a likely outcome is that the APC wins 6 seats while the PDP wins 4.
  • There are 18 vacant seats which will have no incumbent contesting. In 2011, the PDP won 60% of such seats while opposition parties (although before uniting as the APC) collectively won 40%. Working with this admittedly crude assumption (based on just five vacant seats contested in 2011), the PDP is therefore likely to win 10 governorship states while the APC gets 8 states.
  • Therefore in states holding elections in 2015, it is likely that the PDP ends up with 14 states and the APC with 14. If these figures are added to the other states without governorship elections, the tally is:

PDP: 14 states + 3 non-participating states =       17

APC: 14 states + 3 non-participating states =        17

APGA =                                                                                                 1 non-participating state

Labour =                                                                                              1 non-participating state

Total                                                                                                     36 states

 

This could mean that PDP and allied parties will control 19 states, fewer than the 22 it currently does. However, these are broad generalisations and it is difficult to identify the specific states in question.

NigeriaElectionsMap2Presidential election projections

Going by the initial rule we applied, if the PDP candidate is incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, he might seem to have an 85% chance of winning with about 60% of the votes. However, given Nigeria’s Federal system, the proportion of vacant governorship seats and the rapidly changing alliances in the political landscape, other variables may come into play.

We can assume that states largely support the same party for Presidential elections as they do for Governorship elections (although in 2011 a number of mainly northern states, as well as ACN states in in an electoral pact with PDP in the South-West, bucked the trend).

Going by the 85% assumption, if local incumbency is the prime factor, since 22 of the states are currently PDP or allied parties in the current dispensation, the PDP may win the Presidential vote in 21 states (19 PDP states and 2 APC states), and the APC meanwhile would win Presidential votes in 15 states (12 currently APC and 3 PDP states). This is likely to be enough for a simple majority.[1]

If however, we go by the projected trends in the governorship elections as useful pointers, we end up with a different result, with both parties winning in 17 states each.

The absolute numbers of voters cannot be predicted but it may be significant that the APC goes into the election controlling two states with the largest number of registered voters, Lagos (6.1 million registered voters in 2011) and Kano (5 million).

Also remember that section 134 (1) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution lays down two conditions for a victory; one is a majority of votes cast, but the other is a minimum of 25% of registered voters in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states (i.e. 24 states).

Currently, with support of Labour and APGA, the PDP controls enough states to ensure that. However, in 2011 Bauchi state did not reach the needed minimum even when controlled by PDP, delivering only 16.05% of the vote for the party’s candidate, while Katsina, also PDP, only just scraped over the minimum with 26.1%. So it is reasonable to assume that if support or turnout is low in PDP-ruled northern states, not all may deliver the 25% minimum needed to secure a win for the party’s candidate.

In such a circumstance, the Constitution states that candidates would be forced into a second-round run-off election. Such a situation has not previously occurred under Nigeria’s present electoral system.

Therefore, of three possible outcomes – outright PDP win, outright APC win, or a run-off election – the most likely outcome based on our projections from current data is that neither party would manage both factors for an outright victory so there would need to be an additional run-off election.

Neither is it clear which party that situation would favour. On one hand a nationally incumbent party may retain more resources to continue mobilising, but on the other, both the voting public and important political intermediaries may perceive momentum in the opposition which galvanises support for them popularity.

If the presidential election does not favour an outright win for the PDP, it may also further weaken the PDP’s chances at the subsequent gubernatorial level given the proportion of vacant seats (18) to incumbent re-elections (10). The deciding states for the presidential election and the overall fortune of the two parties will be those 18 vacant seats, which also happen to have 54.4% (40.03 million) of 2011’s registered voters, including 10 of the 14 states with the largest number of registered voters, underlining just how open this race really is.

Some Caveats

Incumbency advantages are very dependent on specific local factors, such as candidates, coalitions, party machinery, electorate sophistication, local issues and more; therefore it is hard to make a solid prediction on the outcomes. Importantly, the 2015 elections appear as if they will be a two-party race in all states, although this may also change if heavyweights who lose primaries in the two major parties decide to leave them.

In such a situation, the advantages of incumbency calculated from the 2011 multi-party elections may have less predictive value at the gubernatorial elections because the APC is a merger of three parties with varying strengths; the ACN, CPC and ANPP. This is additionally complex in states (such as Kano, Imo and Kwara) where PDP governors crossed over to the APC.

In that case, the advantage of incumbency would go beyond 11% because we would need to consider what proportion of the 2011 vote for other parties in the merger (i.e. CPC and ANPP) will be scooped up by APC. Additionally, in most of the states where the governor crossed over from the national ruling PDP with some or all of his supporters, the PDP still has a solid state structure.

While we are able to make some plausible projections where incumbents are re-contesting in 2015, it is difficult to do so for the 18 vacant seats because the parameters so far cannot test the strength of the opposition merger. What we can say however is that these seats will be hotly-contested.

Since presidential elections occur before governorship elections, it is possible these projections may have little predictive value on the outcome of the presidential elections because the patterns of voting for the governorship and presidential elections are considerably different.[2]

Moreover, there is no clear pattern – beyond an assumed incumbency advantage – by which states vote for a presidential candidate. Several factors come into play such as the interaction of local and national coalitions, incumbency, popularity of presidential candidates, local actors – governorship candidates and power brokers, relative party strength and structure, type of identity allegiances, and historical political behaviour of states.

The large number of vacant seats (18 of 28 up for election) will test the cohesion and organisation of the parties. One possibility is that the incentive for an outgoing or ‘lame duck’ Governor in a state with strong presence of an opposition party to ‘deliver’ that state to their presidential candidate is highly variable.

Another important qualifier is candidates’ combination and popularity: We cannot fully factor this variable until the APC selects its candidate, but identity considerations are likely to be strong influences.

Zainab Usman is a DPhil Candidate at the University of Oxford. Oliver Owen is Junior Research Fellow in International Development at the Oxford Department of International Development.


[1] However, remember that five of those Jonathan-supporting states in 2011 were ACN states voting according to a cross-party pact, and this may have dampened voter enthusiasm – despite the pact in Lagos, only 1,281,688 of the 6,108,069 registered voters actually contributed to Jonathan’s win, so we must allow the possibility that greater numbers might turn out for an incumbent party’s own candidate.

[2] Five ACN states in the South-West voted PDP in the presidential elections while nine PDP states voted CPC in the presidential elections in 2011.

This report was originally published on African Arguments.  It was sent to us by one of its authors for republishing here. 

Interact with Ms. Usman on twitter via  @MssZeeUsman and Dr. Owen via @MrOllyOwen


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  • Dr Pat Kolawole Awosan

    The hit the nail on the head,the rigging mechanism that PDP has been using successful in Nigeria is the use of state-governors to perpetrate rigging and manipulation of voting process during elections.That is why PDP-president Ebele Jonathan was desperately trying to install PDP governor Ayo Fayose and tried but failed to instal PDP-Omisore into the Osun State governor’s villa.
    Once the PDP and presidency are in control of the state governorship,incumbency of the governors allows the governors to use their grass-root-thugs like Ondo State-governor Olusegun Mimiko, who uses known Akure thug and his gangsters at Irowo-st,Akure,Ondo State,to rig election for president Ebele Jonathan.This is the hidden secret behind governor Olusegun Mimiko-a two-terms elected-Labour Party governor, defection from Labour Party to PDP recently also with the attempt but failed take-over of Adamawa State .States governors are the weapons that PDP president Ebele Jonathan sticks his hope for 2015 re-election on.

  • Oluwadara

    The analysis is based on Governors and the votes they will contribute, but, fails to take one factor in to consideration, The Buhari factor is one permutation that will change the trend of voting in favour of APC. i.e if he is the candidate for APC, or else APC will fail woefully. i can bet that PDP will atleast lose 4 states among the following states of Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi and Kaduna. Therefore APC will surely win in first round. Sorry Dumbo Joe, u will not make it.

    • Otile

      Oluwadaradara, remember Dumbo will go and go with his oil. Is that what you want, who will feed you?

  • the truth

    great analysis, statistical and comparative judgement. I still think rivers state based on logic will vote apc for governor and pdp for president. If pdp goes with wike the ijaw, ogoni and orashi axis will vote apc, but if the governorship is zoned to the ogoni axis they will take both president and governor. It is only fair that odili(ndoni 1999-2007) amaechi(ikwerre 2007-2015) it would be suicidal to bring another ikwerre man from pdp. But this would be a great presidential election. May the best man win

    • Otile

      Don’t say it will be suicidal to bring another Ikwerre man. What we want is competence, not federal character. See how federal character brought us do-nothing Yar’Adua and the scandal that followed after his demise. How about Andoakaa and Hajiya Waziri? Have you forgotten so quickly?

      • the truth

        my brother rivers state is divided into upland and the riverine people. from 1999 to date we have had 2 governors who all came from the upland area. It is only fair that a rivers man become governor, considering the fact that rufus ada george and spiff were all riverine governors past. The game amaechi is playing is to bring a riverine man for apc. if pdp brings wike, the ikwere and upland vote will be split 50-50 while the riverine vote will be an 80-20 in favor of apc if wike is chosen. Remember the accord in port harcourt was to zone the governorship to the riverine people. In as much as i support the best man for the job, it is imperative that all zones must be treated like equals. I am basing this analysis purely on rivers politics

    • Joe

      No! No! No! This analysis cannot be correct. Haba PT! I thought Imam Buhari has already won 2015 Election and he is only awaiting his coronation in February 2015! What happened? You mean “Clueless” GEJ is no longer what he is claimed to be?

      • the truth

        lol my brother election is not won on premium times but on the fields. But this analysis is spot on. I hope both candidates do their homework and make headways into each other territories. I hope this election is not split by north vs south as many are clamoring for. I wish goodluck to buhari and goodluck. let the best man win

    • Mr Igbo Sanity

      There is no tribe called ndoni or Ikwerre. Both Odili and Amaechi are 100% Igbos

      • the truth

        u are on your own, they are not igbo. do you have any historical evidence to prove this assertion? i am not talking about fables and tales by moon light

  • Baba Messi

    BREAKING NEWS : OGUN STATE APC ON FIRE!

    Information going round is that APC in Ogun state has HIT THE ROCKS! We are told by reliable unbiased media(Excluding PT) that the APC has witnessed embarrassing defection of its key members! Osoba, the deputy Governor, some senators and a host of supporters! What baffles close watchers of political maneuvers is the unusual silence adopted by PT over this historic game changing set of defections!
    From this detailed and excellent analysis above, it is obvious that the reality is that APC is in the back seat. Ironically, this is in SHARP CONTRAST with results of the phony controversial online polls conducted some weeks back by SaharaReporters!
    I would like to align with the submission of these two analysts above, because, the PDP has made serious and commanding INROADS Into areas hitherto considered strong APC domains. First Ekiti! Then Ondo!! And now Ogun!!!

    Gaskiya, gaskiya, APC ta mutu!
    R.I.P. A-fee-C!

  • Godfrey Etokebe

    This analysis is so biased. Do you expect PDP
    states to lose to APC? Just take a good look at what that has happened recently
    in Ekiti and Osun states. PDP took Ekiti from APC. Most importantly, PDP was
    able to gather over 40% percent votes in Osun. If you had factored these recent
    events into your calculations, it is imperative that the result would have been
    the opposite of what that you are presenting here. This is a clear case of
    UNSUSTAINABLE CLAIM. It sounds more like the research that said the world will
    be experiencing GLOBAL COOLING but was later proven that the correct result
    shows GLOBAL WARMING. There a lot of reports like this one that NEVER STANDS the test of
    time. If I was peer reviewing and evaluating this paper, my decision would have
    been thus:

    REJECTED WITHOUT POSSIBILITY OF RE-SUBMISSION

    .

    • M Ajonye

      And if your brain is working well, you’ll notice that the research was conducted before the most recent developments. For instance labour party has no state due to Mimiko’s defection….etc

      • Godfrey Etokebe

        When was this report published?

  • Ken

    This report is soft to Apc. Why change the title? Look, Apc can’t get 25% in 24 States. PDP will win majority at first poll. Pdp will get 25% in more than 28 States.

  • Kokonsari

    One of the consequences of bad governance is the rot in our educational system. Reading the report, you will find that the two analysts submit that a run-off is the likely outcome of the presidential election. Compare the analysis to the headline. The Premium Times journalist who copied and pasted the piece (without any analysis of their own) either did not go to school or was deliberately mischievous. Some of the dumb people who are also always hasty to post comments below obviously did not read the analysis. Any wonder why we are ruled by dumb people?

    • Marquis di Gorgonzola

      Oga lecturer, it would appear that as you point a finger at the so called ‘dumb’ people, three fingers are pointed right back at you calling you ‘DUMBER’!
      The headline is clear enough that a run-off is likely AFTER the first round of voting where GEJ ‘may get overall majority’. This tallies with the content of the analysis of the two analysts.
      The analysts were unable to make specific projections on the outcome of the possible run-off because of the ‘uncertainty’ of who the APC flag bearer will be.
      However, those you call ‘dumb’ have gone a step further by declaring that in the event of this run-off, APC will be walloped by disgraceful margins of monumental proportions!
      This is because, every sane person can see the APC was designed by default to cede the pole position to a Core Northern Muslim Candidate.
      I suggest if it boils down to a run-off, APC had better throw in the towel and ask for a ‘walk over’ because in such a situation, it will become a case of ‘TO YOUR TENTS O ISRAEL’! And APC will be shown for what it truly is: A REGIONAL PARTY DRIVEN BY PAROCHIAL INTERESTS!

  • Dele

    APC will lose in all the 16 states in southern Nigeria by winning only in Oshun state where Yoruba Muhahedeens dominate.

    • Demola Daniel

      APC LEADERSHIP MANIFESTO

      “The only way to stop us from stealing is to stone us. The Nigerian followers
      are as guilty as the Nigerian leaders. The Nigerian institutions are all compromised
      and there is no alternative to them as it is. Nigerians appear not to be against stealing
      and corruption but only against how long you stay stealing and being corrupt.
      Don’t ever expect those in public office to fight corruption on these facts.”

      ….…..Governor Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers state)

      (June 30th, 2014)

  • Wähala

    I knew Zainab Usman as a Masters student and have followed her musings and appreciate her writings on national issues but, I strongly disagree with this analysis on ground that it’s too academic. Since this analysis may be part of her doctoral dissertation, I will restrain from burning up her pages as nonsense not because of heavy reliance on 2011 stats, but their little consideration for the fluid Nigerian situation today. Just yesterday I wrote that Dumbo’s strategy is to make change impossible by allowing the Boko Haram free reign in as many Northern States as possible so as to cancel elections there; that no candidate can garner the 2/3 win in states to avoid a run-off thus, resulting in postponement of 2015 election and giving Dumbo his 8yrs in office. I called it, “Anarchy Agenda” four years ago. So, this student-report prophesy is nothing new or scholarly to me. But for what it is worth to Zainab… Your analysis failed to consider the “mood of the nation”. Dumbo won 25% in 2/3 Northern states in 2011 due to PDP’s rigging machine as captured on video (see Y-tube) but today, he is virtually: “persona-non-grata” in Northern Nigeria. He recently invited Emir of Kano, Sanusi, to beg the Emir to allow him to come and campaign in Kano in 2015, promising to return his seized passport and pay withheld salaries… In 2011, Chibok girls were not in captivity, the security situation in the country was not in tatters, I million Nigerian youth were not unemployed, 1million Nigerians were not living as refugees in lowly neighboring countries, corruption was not magnified. There will be “protest votes” against Dr. Dumbo if he survives the internal onslaught within his Party. But in 2015, the game changer remains a secret I’m holding close to my heart but the bottom line is, Dumbo will be flushed down the toilet… without Ma’sha Allah. Wallahi!

    • Godfrey Etokebe

      The current trend shows clearly that GEJ will be re-elected with a landslide. I wait to see how APC will dislodge PDP from its stronghold the way that PDP did to APC in Ekiti. I also wait to see how the numbers of voters aligned to APC will increased in a PDP state like it happened in Osun. These are two fundamental events that show the current leaning in the Nigerian political space.

      • Wähala

        I won’t banter with Gejitoes on this but, it will be clear to you before the elections that Dr. Dumbo is going down into the soakaway… just stay tuned!

        • Patriotic Dom

          I am already planning my vacation to fall in during the election period… you know u call every supporter of GEJ ogogro drunkard… will be happy taking shots in my home town while u d be in one hospital lying side by side with your pay master Lai and Tinubu.. with the doctors struggling to keep your heart beating… though I do not wish you death, I ain’t heartless and uncivilized like you… just take it easy ok… Feb 14, is by the corner… relax…lol

          • Baba Messi

            After the shocking disgrace at the Ekiti polls, wahala was strongly advised by the doctors who battled to save his life NEVER to dabble in politics again as he is not likely to survive such a massive heart attack a second time!
            I love wahala very much even though his comments are usually incoherent due to his over dependence on narcotics, but if he chooses to go to perdition, that’s his call. My only worry is that PT will probably go under as they will lose their all day and night customer. What will then become of their host of jobless e-armchair politicians?? Anyway, soldier come,soldier go, barracks no…
            I dey LaffooooO!!

          • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

            I advised him recently to discard his crack-pipe and check in to rehab but he obviously is hooked for life !

          • Marquis di Gorgonzola

            No no no my brother. Don’t give up on him.
            ‘with God ALL things are possible’!
            I know medically, brother wahala is brain dead..but who is the devil to bring to nought the quotation above??
            The devil is a liar!
            MALLAM WAHALA SHALL NOT DIE BUT SHALL LIVE TO DECLARE THE GOODNESS OF THE LORD IN THE LAND OF THE LIVING!

            Pray for him..please pray for him!

          • the truth

            lol una don kill me, i dey role for ground now.

          • Marquis di Gorgonzola

            Abeg if u wan laff, laff jare! After all, since I can attest to your neutrality, i can swear you are not a member of the Angry-Peoples-Club!
            So, no need for bottled up anger my brother..make u dey roll for ground dey laff dey go!
            Me too I dey laff o!

          • the truth

            my brother thanks, but we must put hands together to handle this country. neutrality is the way

          • the truth

            lol there is a new sickness in town now called ebele fever. it is about to sweep nigeria come february 2015. some people may not survive

          • Baba Messi

            Did you say ‘may’ not survive??
            My brother, u need to know how to interpret the signs of the times.
            Forget February, Some are not surviving it already oo!
            Or have u seen the spooky shadow of the violent bogeymen; TundeMESS with his smelly fart, ‘Dr’ kay and his charge and bail analysis, ending Naija and his drug induced stereotyping, etc??
            Wahala is struggling to revive them as we speak.
            I respect some.of you for your balanced comments, that is why regardless of what is happening in the polity, some of us can come out and make our humble submissions towards a better Naija. However, once a report comes out exposing the APC’s soft underbelly, the above mentioned rascals take to their heels and record ‘absent’ for weeks!
            Pray and if need be, fast for them! That is our sacrifice towards a better Naija.

          • the truth

            as a neutral observer i commend your steadfast resolve in your fight for justice, equity, continuity and leadership. i hope they all survive the ebele fever sweeping the polity. i hope wahala fly them abroad if need be for urgent treatment.lol

          • the truth

            lol boy u go kill me with laugh. some people will slumber with ebele fever come february

        • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

          Are you and your APC Islamic extremists planning a coup of sorts……..with Shekau as the hit-man ?

          • Wähala

            No banter!

        • Kay Soyemi (Esq.)

          “Down the soakaway”, Wahala?

          You are too kind.

          He’s paddling down shite creek without shoes, come 2015.

    • Gideon Orkar

      Doctoral thesis…

      • Wähala

        O se!

  • Dele

    APC will lose in all the 16 states in southern Nigeria; winning only in Oshun state where Yoruba Muhahedeens dominate.

  • T

    The report says that a run-off is the likely outcome.

  • favourtalk

    He should not decieve himself, he will fail in Feb 2015 because nigerians are tired of bad leadership

    • changeforall

      You guys are disturbing yourselves here on social media. Come rain come sunshine I’m very sure that we Nigerians are not daft. APC can only win if they have a better candidate. The devil we know is better than the angel we don’t know. Northerners they all had their chances.

  • felix

    an alliance with acn then is different now d 3 opposition parties then are 2gether now and dat will count as per votes, if is free and fair jonathan can never get 25percent vote in d northeast or west dis time aroundand can take it 2 d bank

  • Dr. McCkay

    WHY APC WILL LOSE THE 2015 ELECTION BY LANDSLIDE

    An Islamic party, like APC, has no chance in Nigeria. APC is an illicit organization – full of Alhajis, signifying nothing. Majority northern Muslims don’t want an Islamist state. Christians in southern Nigeria are also determined to vote against the APC Islamic party in central and southern Nigeria. Nobody who truly desires democratic liberties of speech, and, association will contradictorily vote for APC. The APC Islamist party is dead in waters.

    Besides, APC is diametrically opposed to the multi-religious values of Yoruba people. As a party, APC causes religious crises between Christians and Muslims. APC moreso denies Yoruba people Freedom of Information under Nigerian Law. The APC party is besides, roguish and thievish, and does not render public accounts. The enlightened people of Nigeria cannot sensibly vote for such toxic party.

    The murderous struggle for an Islamic State of Nigeria by fanatical Nigerian Muslims is the main cause of Nigeria’s crisis today. Solve that and you’ll solve everything. Until this treasonous Islamism is defeated – by force, if necessary – Nigeria will never know peace, quiet or progress – but will rather continue in this present state of war.

  • By popular demand

    WHY APC WILL LOSE THE 2015 ELECTION BY LANDSLIDE

    An Islamic party, like APC, has no chance in Nigeria. APC is an illicit organization – full of Alhajis, signifying nothing. Majority northern Muslims don’t want an Islamist state. Christians in southern Nigeria are also determined to vote
    against the APC Islamic party in central and southern Nigeria. Nobody who truly desires democratic liberties of speech, and, association will contradictorily vote for APC. The APC Islamist party is dead in waters.

    Besides, APC is diametrically opposed to the multi-religious values of Yoruba people. As a party, APC
    causes religious crises between Christians and Muslims. APC moreso denies Yoruba people Freedom of Information under Nigerian Law. The APC party is besides, roguish and thievish, and does not render public accounts.

    The enlightened people of Nigeria cannot sensibly vote for such toxic party.

    The murderous struggle for an Islamic State of Nigeria by fanatical Nigerian Muslims is the main cause of Nigeria’s crisis
    today. Solve that and you’ll solve everything. Until this treasonous Islamism is defeated – by force, if necessary – Nigeria will never know peace, quiet or progress – but will rather continue in this present state of war.

    • Jayjay

      “Bola Tinubu has become the most hated politician in the South-West.
      Association with him is increasingly as politically contagious as leprosy.
      Ekiti was presumed to be one of Tinubu’s South-West strongholds.
      Kayode Fayemi lost in every local government area of the state.”

      “Coming on the heels of its defeat in Ondo, the APC rout in Ekiti is conclusive proof
      that Bola Tinubu’s fabled stranglehold on South-West politics has ended.
      Lagosians are disgusted that Tinubu has privatized their politics. His wife,
      daughter and even son-in-law have been steam-rolled into vantage political positions.”

      “The (Lagos) state’s finances are tied to Alpha Beta (Ltd.) With the contempt for the people
      that has come with years of monarchical control over the ACN, Bola Tinubu presumes
      South-West people will follow him sheepishly into this alliance with the North,
      just because his burning ambition to become the vice-president of Nigeria now
      demands it. But what this has achieved is to show that Bola Tinubu’s ambitions
      are anathema to South-West interests.”

      …………………… Femi Aribisala

      (July 1st, 2014)

      • Ricky

        Folks:

        Stop wasting your time. Nigeria is in anomie wrapped in genocide.
        An election is surely not the solution to either genocide or anomie.
        Only a bloody revolution can save Nigeria from official thefts fuelling
        the on-going conflict to seize power by ethno-religious gangs for thefts.

        • _Proudly NigerDeltan

          ….but revolutions take place in countries…and Nigeria is a full blown continent. If you doubt it, then answer this simple kwestion: Can you recall just one single demonstration anywhere in the North against any of Nigeria’s past brutal thieving military dictators or Presidents? Even demonic Abacha to whom Bokohari was a full time employee, never had any protests against him. Instead he got a 10m man march and a unianimous endorsement for life president by the people of the North. Many of those scallywags are in the APC of today, including their very own presidential aspirant. It sounds too bad to be true…but it is true. Nonsense!

          • The Revolutionary

            @ Proudly Niger Deltan:

            Nigeria will know a revolution before it can ever know peace because thieves and victims can’t live together in peace in the same household. Official stealing has broken the bonds between government and the people of Nigeria. In all history, revolution is the only solution to such anomie – despite your good point that disparate tribes and religions exist in Nigeria to hinder concerted revolutionary action, but Nigeria is no more ethnically complex than Russia in 1917. In all history, the trees of society’s happiness are watered by the blood of the society’s treasonous thieves (and their families).
            Nigeria shall not be an exception in world history despite its numerous cowards.

  • _Proudly NigerDeltan

    I want to specifically thank the Management of PT for listening to my sharp criticism with regard to their skewed map of continent Nigeria presented to us on this forum few days ago. In fact, on that day, I got angrier than Angry. Whether that incident was motivated by desire to misinform or an innocent act of mischief, PT deserves some measure of commendation for making best use of its feedback processes in line with standard principle. It would have been a disaster to confront Nigerians with that same ‘ojoro’ map.

    This is 2014 where you have people posting comments here who have first class M.Sc degrees in Map Studies and work as cyber cafe attendants. You can then only imagine their response when they see your goof in a simple map.

    ….at least this map does not present Lagos and Adamawa hills as having the same geographic latitude. So, its acceptable to me and other discerning Nigerians. We hope you will maintain this standard.

    By the way, stop giving the Robert Mugabe of Nigeria and his demented supporters hope. Great Jona has already won Pure & Simple…Let the East prepare for presidency in 2015 because since 100yrs it is only the Igbo who have not been President….and only the Igbo East that has not been fortunate to produce a Capital city. So we hope in 2018, when we shall have an Igbo President, the capital of Nigeria will move from abuja to a more peaceful and ‘central’ location like Enugu. No be ‘one Nigeria’.

  • Ijeuwa

    The assumptions on the 2011 elections are too wild. They thumbprinted many ballot papers in 2011 in favor of PDP and that was why they adamantly refused to have the ballot papers that gave them their ‘victory’ subjected to a forensic test choosing instead to illegally fire Justice Salami who gave the order to have those materials inspected….

    The analysis, from that baisi alone, is skewered in favour of an elusive incumbency!

    In a FREE AND FAIR election, the PDP stands no real chance especially in the presidential election and most of the NASS elections.

  • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

    The analysis is totally wrong on Imo….Any body who thinks APC will win the heartland of the Igbo nation because of a sellout called Rochas should think again !
    GEJ will surprise Nigeria’s equivalent of the extremist Muslim brotherhood which masks around as the APC. There is just no room for Religious extremists in our polity. The boko-haram is already done enough damage and Nigerians will reject those whose sole objective is to Islamise Nigeria and further move the country in the direction of terrorism !!
    GEJ will win on the first ballot and landslide too……………except in the Sambisa forest area where the APC clearly has an upper hand !!

  • Ette

    This analysis has woefully failed to take into account current mood of the nation and the public discontentment about the cluelessness and woefully failure of GEJ. How can they think he will have majority of votes, no matter the amount of rigging which is their intention. Never again should NIGERIANS make the mistake that brought in such incompetent, clueless, insensitive, corrupt, unintelligent person like GEJ to lead this great nation.

    • Alcindo Satori

      who should Nigerians elect? Ebola Tinubu’s candidate you mean?

  • Joe

    As long as Jonathan allow BH to ravage north east, Jonathan can never win. We have decided to vote Jonathan out of Aso rock in 2015.

    • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

      As long as the APC does not call their Sambisa allies to drop those rusty AK47 rifles and stop the blood-letting in the NE, Nigerians will continue to reject them….they will never stand a chance of Islamising the country !!

      • Ibrahim D Abubakar

        That is the work of Jonathan a clueless president.

        • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

          No it’s the duty of the political allies of the Boko-haram ie the APC to restrain their boys in the Sambisa forest !!

          • G4

            retard

          • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

            Imbecile !!

        • the truth

          my brother are u about to get consumed by the ebele fever come february?

    • Conscience

      Keep your mount shut. Something dey do you?

    • Peter

      LIAR!

  • Chris1408

    This is totally wrong analysis. APC candidate for 2015 election is not known yet. A sound poll of registered voters have to be taken when the candidates for the election are known. This analysis is full of assumptions.

    • Wähala

      The girl is only 25yrs old and has not lived in Nigeria five years continuously so she doesn’t know what she’s writing about. But, leave her to pass her exams with academic mumbo-jumbo biko, soon she will be sweating under her armpits.

      • Chris1408

        I won’t respond to her until she shave the afro in her armpits. She probably doesn’t have water to wash it cos water is luxury in GEJ Nigeria.

    • TAWANDA INCOMMUNICADO

      “A snake’s offspring is always something long”..no matter what happens,the APC will always be the equivalent of the middle-east Muslim brotherhood……..very bigoted and violent !!

    • Conscience

      It has no other name but ‘junkurukuru’ journalism…i.e., journalism by bad belle.

      PT will tell you that “Analysts say…”, Who be Analysts? Na person name? Which country of continent Nigeria do these faceless Analysts come from and na which Party dem dey? You sure say no be APC handi & leggi work be this?

    • Karim

      The APC flag bearer (S)elected WILL be a Core Northern Nigerian Muslim.
      THIS IS NOT AN ASSUMPTION!
      The individual will not make much difference because only an insignificant percentage of the Nigerian electorate will be able to rise above the usual ethnic sentiments when voting.
      It is sad but true. A run-off will bring this to the fore.

  • Davido

    Nigeria’s twin crisis of genocidal Islamism and treasonous stealing can’t be solved by any election.

  • Preco01

    “#Nigeria2015: Analysts say President Jonathan may get overall majority, but run-off likely” absolute rubbish as always with everything concerning Nigeria that needs coalation and analysis of data, absolute voodooo nonsense!

    • Okemute1

      Just like the voodoonomic upon which the running of the nigerian economy is based. Or the voodoomation TAN keeps singing about. You need your eye to be soaked in Ogogoro perfected in Otueke for you to see the voodoomation of the GEJ administration

  • G4

    Breeze through this document and no where did they mention that a poll was taken of likely voters, just conjecture and assumptions who permitted this crap to be published.

    • Chris1408

      I tire oooooo. Product of Nigeria failed educational system. It’s not even an analysis, but write up of assumptions.

    • Okemute1

      I parro ooo! This woman just shagbo finish carry pen begin write nonsense.

  • Oleku

    Next year presidential elections is a forgone issue–jihadist Buhari ati janjaweedians will keep leading the polls on PT ati SR–but Naijas know GEJ will floor him at the polls–this issue is not debatable–Jona till 2019

  • the truth

    With this analysis from this young lady she is predicting an ebele fever outbreak come february. Many may be affected by this fever.lol

    • Oleku

      Exactly comrade–the janjaweeds can relocate to Mali ati Arewastan Islamic caliphate come February–no space for jihadists ati cocaine junkies in aso rock–Naijas must say no to Islamisation of continent Nigeria by Mohammedans-animals

      • the truth

        not mali my brother, they have already booked their first class camel rides through the sahara desert close to gwoza and mabi. They are all heading to djibouti, the word on the street is mali refused to grant their camels entry into bamako.lol

    • Screw-em

      Do you mean an EBOLA fever outbreak…..check your “spelling”……lol

      • the truth

        my brother this ebele fever is more contagious, the ebola comes from congo, but this ebele fever emanates from otuoke in kaima, this fever had no shoes but now has robin hood shoes, this ebele fever is about to bring change. harmful symptoms include over sipping ogogoro, putting your hand on your jaw when faced with bomb blasts, always wearing black jumper(the mood of the country)

        • Screw-em

          You forgot, making a “fashion ” statement by wearing pajamas with cufflinks……lol

          • the truth

            my brother are u getting consumed by this ebele fever? Many people have subscribed to ebele fever. remember one of the advantages is change.

          • Screw-em

            “Change”? or do you mean “Transformation Agenda” aka we created 1.6million phantom “jobs”, stole 20billion dollars, or “stealing is not corruption”?….the only change that is guaranteed is the moving truck – with our men in HAZMAT suits already stationed at the gate of Aso Rock ready to scrub, fumigate and disinfect the witchcraft coven that is the Otuoke Dumbo”s little ritual ground. Let him and madam hippo start their vile incantations to the DEVIL, ’cause its all over!!

          • the truth

            but this same otuoke clown rebased the economy which has been internationally acclaimed as the best and largest economy in africa with an annual growth of 8% by the world bank, the 20billion were figures given by sanusi(remember the same sanusi gave 121 billion, 85 and settled at 20 billion dollars missing) which figure do we believe?. When you mean change do you mean timipri sylva the godfather of stealing(his court records speak for him) or tinubu( a drug courier who pleaded no contest in a us court) or atiku ( who was indicted in the us for his role in the cheney scam) or amaechi( who until today has not completed the new port harcourt city that he started in 2007 but that project according to official rivers state government figures has engulfed 462 billion naira). Or don’t you see hyundai and honda are in nigeria now with made in nigeria cars about to be rolled out in the first quarter of next year. boko haram created by you know who now engulfing you know who. My brother i may have been infected by ebele fever.lol

          • Screw-em

            We are still waiting for the forensic audit report- I heard it has hit a cul-de-sac of perpetual “delay”…lol. As i’ve stated before, bragging about a Bush Lantern economy powered with adulterated kerosene with doctored stats- as the largest “economy” in Africa when desert Somalia has a far more thriving economy beats the heavens out of me, Dumbo should hold his head with his fedora hat in shame. This hysteria over hyundai and honda assembled cars aka “made” in 9ja is laughable. No power, steel industry is comatose, synthetic rubber imported. emmh…my brother, how did you manage to cobble this “made” in 9ja tricycle now? and Wetin happen to Peugeot and other assembled trucks and cars long before Dumbo showed his ugly face now?…..lol

          • the truth

            o boy give peace a chance the way u dey shout u be one of those militants(tompolo). My brother do you call world bank and imf as doctored stats. na wa oh. my man that man no ugly oh, if jona ugly wetin u go call obj? lol u funny die

          • Screw-em

            Ask yourself why the same “esteemed” World Bank, that forgave 9ja’s onerous debt years ago – a fraudulent 419 scheme piloted by Madam “economy”-Okonjo, began throwing dollars at us again if they truly have our interest at heart. As for the stooge representative we have in the name of Madam head Scarf-okonjo- she is a different tory all together, I won’t “buy” any acknowledgement from a criminal organization like World Bank or IMF…..l sheath my “sword” for now….PS….OBJ be “chimp’ with pancake for face while Dumbo GEJ be Gorilla with plastic surgery….lol

    • Okemute1

      NIGERIANS got rid of Ebola, our next assignment is to get rid of Ebele.

    • Sword of Damocles

      My suggestion to you sir, is to read it again, this time S-L-O-W-L-Y. I sense a predilection for bootlicking, preferably ones from Otuoke. While you are at it look up the term TURNOUT MODEL, maybe then you will be a ble to understand exactly what these two ladies are attempting to do. Goodluck!!

      • the truth

        Men of substance don’t condescend to abuses.I would advise you to learn how to address people on a public forum.When you learn proper manners I would gladly take you on

  • Screw-em

    Is this Humpty Dumbo GEJ’s doctoral dissertation in disguise?. Given this young lady’s warped analysis of the 2015 elections, ……..Scooby Doo GEJ does not stand a chance in HELL to “win’ any (s)election unless the entire Country freezes over. ..who did she poll?

  • Maria

    Jonathan cannot win more than 8 states in 2015, mark my words.

    • MrFesh

      You are begining to run mad gradually.

    • the truth

      my sister ebele fever is about to sweep nigeria. do you mean he can’t win 8 terms?lol

      • Wähala

        Mr. “Neutral” or is somebody impersonating you? Mumu, you looked at her kindergarten color of Nigeria in 2011 analysis and suddenly… you are showing your true colors like Kodak camera, ba? So many facets in her analysis but like I said, she will flunk her academic whatever if any Professor picks holes in her watery analysis. The most crucial they overlooked is called. “mood of the nation”. In America, after 8yrs the mood of the nation is generally “tired” of the ruling party. Today, if you’re truthful to yourself since you’re a fraud, even you can agree that Nigerians are tired of PDP plunder and misrule after 16yrs… with Dumbo being the worst of the worst. Nigerians are living as refugees in their own country, the CDS included. Campaign is about talking. Wait for Alhj. Lai to start marketing his candidate before popping another bottle of ogogoro… drunk!

        • the truth

          mr wahala whatever i post doesn’t give you the right to insult me. We are having a discourse here and on so many instances i have pleaded with you to toe the path of respect. You can make your point without abusing your opponent. I have never insulted you and will never. I would take this as a mistake. But the moment you are man enough to address me with mutual respect as i give to you i will respond to you point by point. Stay blessed mr wahala

          • Wähala

            Pocket your blessing, you’re a fraud. My language remains my “prerogative” is the word I often use on urchins like you. And, like I’ve always told you, “take your best shot… I’ve got strong jaws”. Olosi.

          • True Nigerian

            The truth has never been neutral. When somebody sees evil and he merely reponds by saying to those affected by the evil to “calm down” or he dismissively says to everyone, including the evil doer, “peace be upon you all”; and yet says absolutely nothing in total unequivocal condemnation of the perpetrators of that evil; that is not neutrality. It is actually a disguised support for the evil.

            Few days ago, Mr Truth who always claims neutrality was venting his clear support for the sheer illegality of Jonathan’s action (through our horrendous police command) on Tambuwal. The truth probably doesn’t know what neutrality is. And what makes it annoying is that taking a side is actually okay, regardless of the side you take. Nobody is forcing anyone else to support any particular side, because this is a democracy or at least a ghost of it. So people are free to support who they want to support, even if that choice makes them look stoopid. So I don’t understand this idea of clearly supporting something and then repeatedly claiming that you are neutral. It makes the person a liar, and that is actually worse than standing for something that you cannot defend. That is why I don’t engage Mr Truth in conversation. I noticed long time ago that his claims to neutrality was a pure lie!

      • Maria

        The very reason he has been rejected. No one wants ebola jonathan.

    • Wähala

      As you can see, gejitoes are swarming around rookie analysis looking at colors instead of pragmatics on the ground in contemporary Naija today. Clear indication that half of them have never seen the four walls of any university in their lives. They’re phools who solve puzzles by looking at colors instead of shapes of things. Mogus. As-is, Dumbo is confused and unless we see their line-ups, don’t mind anybody making any calls, this “little-girlie-analysis” sure has mosquitoes buzzing with ogogoro-induced airy happiness, career clowns. Na when both Houses resume and they see the defections on board dem go know how far. My bet: half of them didn’t even finish reading the childish hypothesis. But, hear dem…

    • Alcindo Satori

      ok maria, let’s count: Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Rivers and Edo (believe it or not), Delta, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Bauchi, Ekiti, Kebbi, Niger, Nasarawa, and Adamawa. Rivers and Edo you may ask? Because no reasonable and sane region will vote to be relegated to number 2 instead of number 1. I believe you understand that common sense needs to be common. just saying

      • Okemute1

        It is good to dream. Afterall it is free. What is the basis for your silly dream? Are you implying that the people of these state don’t like good things?

      • Wähala

        You are shallow, empty actually. What rationale did you use to arrive at your fantasy states? My bet is, you didn’t bother to read the article in full nor understand the little you read. The common sense you lack is the ability to see the turmoil in almost all the PDP states after their primaries… for instance, if Lady Hippo forces Nysom Wike on Rivers State, everybody including Asari have vowed to punish Dumbo for it. The Urhobo Nation rose from a meeting vowing to punish Dumbo if they don’t produce the next Governor. PDP BOT Chairman, Anenih, couldn’t wrestle Edo out of Oshiomhole in recent elections there… and so on. Thinking is not for everyone, you should give up. Nothing “common” about common sense pal, you lack it!

      • Okemute1

        The only vote GEJ can be sure of right now is that of his very very close family members.

        • changeforall

          Talk is cheap but reality will be shocking

        • emmanuel

          If you be real Okemute, you go know say no single vote go come from SS and SE for Boko Haram who set trap for my broda to fail, so that he go take over?

          Moreover, Jonathan as a Vice President, Jonathan, Ekweme were not even respected as much as that woman class Teacher in Edo State who could not read simple sentence. And you want a Southerner to waste vote on an Amaechi who is busy looting his state for a worthless VP office? Na wa for you!

          Please tell me if Rivers State will recoup the N19billion looted last week to organise that rally back if he becomes VP? Fulani would rather dash that kind of money to their Chad or Niger broda than to a River State of infidels.

          My body dey tell me say you nor know wetin dey happen

      • Maria

        Really? Feb is around the corner.

    • boliatepa

      I have marked your words and they look empty. Is it because you had no ideas in them?

      • Maria

        If they are empty why marking them? Efulefu.

        • Okemute1

          Dont mind him.

        • Oleku

          It appears you have team up with wahala ati Tundemash in white powder sniffing–really dog eats dog–keep hallucinating

          • Laide2010

            Oleku, welcome back.
            This is typical to type of what you use to write on all forums!!.
            Just Keep it up!

  • Encore

    WHY APC WILL LOSE 2015 ELECTION BY LANDSLIDE

    An Islamic party, like APC, has no chance in Nigeria. APC is an illicit organization full of Alhajis, signifying nothing.

    Majority northern Muslims don’t want an Islamist state. Christians in southern Nigeria are also determined to vote
    against the APC Islamic party in central and southern Nigeria. Nobody who truly desires democratic liberties of speech, and, association will contradictorily vote for APC. The APC Islamist party is dead in waters.

    Besides, APC is diametrically opposed to the multi-religious values of Yoruba people. As a party, APC foments
    religious troubles between Christians and Muslims. APC moreso denies Yoruba people Freedom of Information
    under Nigerian Law. The APC party is besides, roguish and thievish, and does not render public accounts.
    The enlightened people of Nigeria cannot sensibly vote for such toxic party.

    The murderous struggle for an Islamic State of Nigeria by fanatical Nigerian Muslims is the main cause of Nigeria’s crisis
    today. Solve that and you’ll solve everything. Until this treasonous Islamism is defeated – by force, if necessary – Nigeria will never know peace, quiet or progress – but will rather continue in this present state of war.

    • Okemute1

      Compare your brainless nonsense to the comment of every other person here. Who cares about religion? Rubbish. What has religion done for anybody? Dubai where all our looters both Christian and Muslim now go to buy homes and go on holiday is a muslim country. And the countries that seem to move forward have a clear demarcation between religion and govt. Keep living in your crazy delusion.

    • Ogom

      PDP “foments religious troubles between Christians and Muslims” all day, everyday.

  • Iroro

    Though you did your own bit but I disagree largely on the assumptions and parameters used. The landscape, atmosphere and the exigences of time will definitely affects the 2015 general elections. Performance indicators and crises bedeviling the nation and the inability to either stop it or even reduce it will affects the performance of the ruling party. And don’t forget the crave for change in the global politics and atmospher. As against what you said, poverty and unemployment is alarmingly on the rise and that will definitely affects the outcome of the election.

    • Wähala

      In the US, any politician vying for re-election asks just one question: ‘Are your lives better today than four years ago?’ The citizens answer with their votes, ‘carry-go or, siddon-look’ as amended and translated in Naija lingua by me. When the campaign begins proper and the mud-slings highlighting Dumbo’s atrocities fly, breakdown of their fake economic figures, and screaming questions like: ‘Would you rather continue dying like flies under Dumbo’s insecure Nigeria or, do you want us to show him how to keep you safe?’…na then Naija voters go answer dem. The excitement of the gullible sycophants is in colors of this childish analysis using data from four years ago. Left to me she will certainly flunk her PhD award. Again, nobody can call it yet unless we know who’s up against whom… shikena!

    • Revolutionary

      My Brother,

      I beg forget about elections. Nigeria will know a revolution before it can ever know peace or democracy, because thieves and victims can’t live together in peace in the same household. Official stealing has broken the bonds between government and the people of Nigeria. In all history, revolution is the only solution to such anomie.

      It is true that disparate tribes and religions exist in Nigeria and may hinder concerted revolutionary action, but Nigeria is no more ethnically complex than Russia was in 1917. In all history, the trees of society’s happiness are watered by the blood of the society’s treasonous thieves (and their families). Nigeria shall not be an exception in world history despite its numerous cowards.

  • Wedem

    It is evident that the analysis of this desertion is biased. It talks about incumbency without mentioning Bauchi in 2011 voted for Buhari in the Majority despite being also state. She asserted without any evidence that APC was negative in its campaign and people are fed up of that. No polling results were provided to support this statement. It is trite that in desertations, when u ascribe then u most cite sources. Moreover globally it is the job of the opposition to challenge the government that’s why they are called that moniker. Analysis is in summary a hack job.

    • Jam jam

      You clearly haven’t read the analysis, and the place where the authors mentioned that in PDP controlled States like Bauchi and Katsina, The then CPC got a majority of the votes. So much ignorance on display

      • Dan Jay

        Granted. what about citing sources of evidence of people being fed up of APC negative campaign.

    • qudus

      It is either u r unable to deduce d submissions or u just want to be funny! It is stated in the report that some Northern states voted PDP governors but CPC Presidency in 2011, while some states where incumbents were not running for governor were lost to opposition. U want BAUCHI to be mentioned in particular?

  • Tunsj

    Many times, analysts are wrong and they do not know what they are talking about. Elections just took place here in the US and a lot of analysts and pollsters are licking their wounds.

    • Ogom

      Republicans were expected to take the Senate. Most analysts and pollsters were agreed on that. There was no surprise there.

  • Sword of Damocles

    i Dont think it is a biased forecast. Like any projection, this one is trying to project the correct TURNOUT MODEL. Recent events and the formation of APC make projecting the correct turnout model precarious. I think that with Mai Gaskiya as the APC nominee it is easier to win the plurality of the vote than it is to meet a ” minimum of 25% of registered voters in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states (i.e. 24 states). Thus SW states and states like Rivers, Bayelsa and Edo are very important for meeting the “25%” requirement. I would be very suspicious if APC does not win the majority of votes cast on Feb 14th 2015. I think APC should be able to check rigging at post-election collation due to observers, however, APC needs to conduct due diligence of trying to obtain Voter registration card info on all local districts of all states in Nigeria, prior to the election. Since INEC will not be using biometric matrix for this election, it is important to have the voter card info to ensure that it is not being sold on election day, or non existing people voting. I have a big concern about the voter card being issued by inec especially without biometric dimension. If APC wants to attempt to ensure that PDP doesnt engage in its GENETIC propensity(RIGGING), it must try to police/monitor the voter cards issued by INEC(maybe have a database prior to the election that can be matched with election results). Now what i am suggesting is EXPENSIVE. but I am sure that Asiwaju can make it happen if he wants to

  • emmanuel

    Edo, Imo, Rivers 95% vote for Jonathan. Same thing tha happened in 2011 will still happen.

    Jonathan will get at least 30% vote from the North East and West States where he would not get maximum vote from the Non-Fulanis and Christians in revolt to the Genocide of Boko Haram and their sponsors.

    Lqgos inhabitants hate tue APC and Are bery ready to disgrace them at the polls. In Kano, those who loved the Ado Bayero family – majority are ready for a show down with Kwakwanso for imposing Sanusi on them.

    The battle is Head, but eimple to win by Jonathan.

    The North Central is having its only dual carriage Federal highway for the first time on the instance of Jonathan – Lokoja Abuja (The Fulanis who were in power for four decades never respected them) and will also not vote for a Fulani who use their herdsmen to maul down their people

  • Bello Johnson

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  • True Nigerian

    Well, although I am more into the private sector, I come from a background of extensive experience as a researcher and from a 1st tier university too. I’m saying that just in case it helps anyone who may think that I am just blabbing because I have some internet and a keyboard to write my own comments. Hahahaha!

    I can see where the pitfalls are in this analysis. I will pick out just one of them. I don’t have time to analyse all the analysis. Those who believe the conclusion of these two authors and those who dispute it both share one thing in common – they have missed one crucial basis of this analysis i.e. that the conclusion is based largely on Jonathan’s viablity as a candidate and an incumbent. It leaves a huge gap of possibilities when Jonathan’s opponent is eventually identified. That may look insignificant, but it makes a monumental difference in electoral reality.

    Just take a look at Assumptions: No 6. You will find immediately that the conclusion of this analysis is based purely on the generic classification that APC will field what these two analysts referred to as “Northern Muslim candidate”. A blanket premise such as “The PDP candidate will be President Goodluck Jonathan, whereas the APC would likely select a Northern Muslim candidate” simply leaves the projected outcome hanging loosely in the balance. It basically assumes that Buhari, Atiku, Sam Nda Isaiah and Kwankwaso will have exactly the same effects on Jonathan’s chances. It is really, really a significant blindspot for the analysis. Whilst that may not have much significance on the first impression, it certainly has a huge impact on what the conclusion might be if the above variable is changed. For instance, whilst many of Jonathan’s voters in 2011 are sickened by many of his decisions and actions over the last 5 years, they are less keen, not reluctant, to replace him with Atiku. That middle-of-the-line thinking certainly is likely to give Jonathan a run-off and a possible win. However, by contrast, many of those same people are now willing to consider Buhari. I’ll give you an example. Yesterday, I was in a meeting with old friends and colleagues where nearly everyone I knew there supported Jonathan in 2011. Today, when Jonathan’s name was mentioned, some of them literally called Jonathan a despicable name and said they cannot wait to see his back. Yet, many of them are saying they don’t know if they will vote for Atiku. Such deep-seated indecision clearly favours Jonathan. They are also saying that they will never vote for Kwankwaso. Again, it clearly favours Jonathan. Others among them were saying that they will abstain and will not even bother voting for anybody this time. Again, the indecision favours Jonathan. But when asked whether they would vote for Buhari, they said that they believed he is a thousand times better than Jonathan. Now, there you go. That rock-solid acceptance that Buhari would do the job by far better than GEJ was clearly left out in the calculation of these analysis. So the point is, since the Assumption No 6 clearly shows that the conclusion is based on a generic term of “northern muslim candidate” (which is really neither here nor there), the conclusion reached by the analysis may prove to be a huge flop when a candidate of Buhari’s standing is settled on as the opposition candidate.

    We already have a clue from the poll organised by Mr President’s dodgy and incompetent media manipulator – Reno Omokri. Even in his own poll that was clearly aimed to make Jonathan a winner, Buhari trounced Jonathan with a wide margin, despite the fact that most followers of Reno Omokri’s website are actually people that are sympathetic to Jonathan. Normal well-fed independent-minded fellows like me will have no time to read or click on anything that Reno Omokri writes or posts on his web page. Yet, even on a poll in which most of the voters were people who followed him, Buhari won convincingly; which validates the results of the earlier poll that was organised by Sahara. Perhaps, the reason for that is that unlike the poll used by the authors of this report, the other polls did not assume a generic “northern muslim candidate”. Instead they squarely pitched Buhari as Jonathan’s opponent. It makes a significant difference.

    • Chima

      I hope you have a voter’s card. You see unlike in the US where analysts vote in Nigeria e-commentators don’t vote. That is why your opinion and most like yours don’t count. the ones that count are the farmers who have been liberated from 40 years of bondage by GEJ matters. The people who live in inner cities who know the reason for their bad roads or lack of access to health is not GEJ, their views count. Did you bother to know why Lagos with 6m registered voters only have less than 2M voting in 2011. The real voters are not e-warriors because they work. Are you aware that the followers of GMB follow him irrespective of party so why hallucinate about GMB popularity it will only be a surprise if same people don’t vote for him. If you are aware of Sahara reporters and their antics prior to the 2011 elections I am not sure you will bother with their report or antics today with respect to GEJ. Summary is this a known path.

      • True Nigerian

        @Chima. Nwanne, I don’t assume like you that every farmer I know will vote for Buhari like me. I speak with people who voted for Jonathan in the last election. In a family of 10 adults and voters, including a farmer, I was the only person who rejected Jonathan and his so-called Goodluck in 2011. Everyone else here voted for Jonathan. Today, I am not asking them not to vote for Jonathan, they are asking others not to vote for Jonathan. There you go! I love democracy because I have lived in places where democracy is robust. That is why I don’t engage in the kind of wild assumptions you have just made about me and all the farmers in Nigeria, including the ones that can no longer go to farm because of boko haram or kidnappers. And there are farmers who have been liberated with fertiliser, but caged and damaged with fear of losing their loved ones as well as exponential rise in the cost of fuel. With all due respect, your views are short on nuance. And that will be spawn a major shocker in 2015, unless it is horrendously rigged like 2007 or systematically rigged like 2011. But I don’t Nigeria can afford the fallout of such criminal conduct again. The country is already too badly fractured to take in more heavy punches without bringing all of us to our knees. My advice is, put the country first, regardless of who you support. The idea that injustice is sweet because your candidate benefits is like pointing the gun at your foot and pulling the trigger because you want your enemy to be frightened. It is self-harm, if not in the short-term, then in the long-term, as we are now witnessing.

        • deji

          You are a man / woman of wisdom. Kudos to you!

        • Nwokolo

          Thank you for this.

  • emma johnson

    PDP IS A CHRISTIAN PARTY???? If you are a follower of Femi Fani Kayode and Femi Aribisala, this is for you.
    Nnamdi Azikiwe => Christian => 1963
    Major-General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi => Christian => 1966
    General Yakubu Gowon => Christian => 1966
    General Murtala Mohammed => Muslim => 1975
    Major-General Olusegun Obasanjo => Christian => 1976
    Shehu Shagari => Muslim => 1979
    Major-General Muhammadu Buhari => Muslim => 1983
    General Ibrahim Babangida => Muslim => 1985
    Ernest Shonekan => Christian => 1993
    General Sani Abacha => Muslim => 1993
    General Abdulsalami Abubakar => Muslim => 1993
    Olusegun Obasanjo => Christian => 1999
    Umaru Musa Yar’Adua => Muslim => 2007
    Goodluck Jonathan => Christian => 2010-date

    Out of 14, we have 7 Christians and 7 Muslims

    In South west, it is said that between 1979 – 1983 all the SW states 
    (Ogun, Oyo, Ondo) were ruled by Christian-Christian tickets. Until the 
    advent of Amosun, Ogun state had never had a muslim governor! Just 4 
    years ago, before Aregbesola, Osun was a under a Christian-Christian 
    ticket (Oyinlola and Obada).

    Between 1999 to date, South west has had more christain governors than muslims (Under AD/ACN and PDP)
    1999
    Ekiti=>Niyi Adebayo=>AD=>Christian
    Ogun=>Olusegun Osoba=>AD=>Christian
    Ondo=>Adebayo Adefarati=>AD=>Christian
    Osun=>Adebisi Akande=>AD=>Muslim
    Oyo=>Lam Adesina=>AD=>Muslim
    Lagos=>Bola Tinubu>AD=>Muslim

    2003
    Ekiti=>Ayo Fayose=>PDP=>Christian
    Ogun=>Gbenga Daniel=>PDP=>Christian
    Ondo=>Olusegun Agagu=>PDP=>Christian
    Osun=>Olagunsoye Oyinlola=>PDP=>Christian
    Oyo=>Rasheed Ladoja=>PDP=>Muslim
    Lagos=>Bola Tinubu>ACN=>Muslim

    2007
    Ekiti=>Segun Oni=>PDP=>Christian
    Ogun=>Gbenga Daniel=>PDP=>Christian
    Ondo=>Olusegun Agagu / Olusegun Mimiko=>PDP / LP=>Christian/Muslim
    Osun=>Olagunsoye Oyinlola / Rauf Aregbesola=>PDP / ACN=>Christian / Muslim
    Oyo=>Alao Akala=>PDP=>Christian
    Lagos=>Babatunde Fashola>ACN=>Muslim

    2011
    Ekiti=>Kayode Fayemi=>ACN=>Christian
    Ogun=>Ibikunle Amosun=>ACN=>Muslim
    Ondo=>Olusegun Mimiko=>LP=>Muslim
    Osun=>Rauf Aregbesola=>ACN=>Muslim
    Oyo=>Abiola Ajimobi=>ACN=>Muslim
    Lagos=>Babatunde Fashola>ACN=>Muslim

    PDP has produced more Christain governors in SW than other parties. Does that mean PDP is a Christian party?

    All this religious antics are crap if you ask me. What is most 
    important is the credibilty and the performance of the one in charge. 
    Little wonder most south westerners doesn’t even realise the fact above 
    that there have been more christian governors.

    FFk maliciously 
    said APC governors are made up of 80 % muslims in order to manipulate 
    the poplulace toward voting PDP against the facts above. What he 
    maliciously left out is the fact that in South-East and South South 
    governors have been 100% Christians (and almost certainly, their 
    deputies too!) So Where is the Islamization of Nigeria? In fact, 
    should the majority of the Northern muslim population vote against PDP 
    since PDP is the one playing the religion politics

    • Nwokolo

      Thanks and well done for this piece.You will be surprised if you dig more. Do you know that Gowon”s Cabinet and Military Chiefs were over 70% Christians. Do you know that Gowon and his Chief of staff Vice Admiral Joseph Edet Wey were both Chrsitians and from Minority tribes(just like Buhari and his Chief of Staff were both muslims). This didnt prevent Gowon or Buhari from performing. Do you also know that the minority entnic groups in the strictest sense have ruled the longest (Tafawa Balewa (Bageri tribe)-6yrs, Gowon (Angas tribe)-9yrs, IBB (Gwari/Gbagi tribe)-9yrs, Abacha (Kanuri tribe)-5yrs).That’s why I encourage young people to read, read and read, not ”dem say”. But these though important should not be our primary concern. We have tried all this Christian/Muslim and Tribal stabs and it has led us nowhere but ”merry-go-round”. Lets focus MAJORLY on quality of governance most especially when the chips are down. Cheers

      • Chima

        @Nwokolo, Nigerians of your type have very low expectation if you say Gowon and Buhari “performed”.

        • Nwokolo

          You have deviated from the theme and summary of my notes. Typical of the group we are targeting to break. The ”dem say” group. That group that uses tribe and religion to divide under cover and pretense..

          • Chima

            @Nwokolo, you are already of a “type” you think you are urbane enough to pick out people of a certain genre and creed. Don’t you think people can disagree with you because they have superior position on issues? It is totally sickening of you to talk down on people because they express an opinion contrary to yours. Who are you to conclude that ones opinion is because of the sound of his name or a suspected creed? Is it because your name is fake?? Who is interested in your half opinion. I am not. However I believe a lot people have very low expectation. You can support whoever you want but not based jaundiced analysis of history.

          • Laide2010

            Chima, you need to say sorry for calling the gentle man names first!. You should just have presented your own opinion to the house and people will be left to choose. Or do you think we dont have enough brains to choose as well!

          • Chima

            @Laide2010, What are you talking about? I responded to his comment cleanly what is your problem? Please shove off.

          • Okemute1

            How old are you Chima?

          • Chima

            Meaning….

          • Okemute1

            Grow up

          • Chima

            Shove off as well

          • Nwokolo

            ”Is it because your name is fake?” You have started again after you start brooding. How is my name fake? What makes Nwokolo fake and Chima real? After following some of your notes, I have a feeling you are struggling to come to terms that a fellow Igbo (if you are one though), can be so dispassionate, unemotional and impassive now that our ”brother” is in power. Well sorry because thats how my parents brought me up. They imbibed in me and made me understand that ”there are no good christians or good muslims or good Igbo, Hausa or Yoruba, what we have are good humans”. Open you mind.

          • Chima

            @Nwokolio, There are reasons for that comment. It is unfair of you to consider people outside ideology sphere as being sentimental. Are saying you don’t think people don’t have genuine reasons for their opinion that will be quite condescending. GEJ or Atiku depending on where you are casting on the premise of “brother’. You are entitled to your opinion as much as I am entitled to mine. Just like you got one vote like me. Who are the “we”. For your info I have lived through 1984-85 and through PTF years under Abacha all in SE/SS region in the past 8 lived in Lagos so I don’t need your ” we’ and your lecture. If you prefer a 72 yr old despot who should be serving tern for murder and treason it is your opinion. If you prefer a man with the least intellectual content -NN24 presidential debate it is your choice. I don’t waste time with people who are going into slavery by choice.

          • Aninta

            Your last line gave up what you have been hiding deep inside of you. You should have gone back to edit or remove that line to save your face.

          • Tobi

            @Chima. Pls grow up!!!!

          • Enemona

            What better way to describe then.

        • Okemute1

          Most of the thing you see and use in the country today were built during the Gowon era. Most of the refineries were built during Buhari watch, most of the road GEJ is trying but failing to renovate were built in their era, most of our universities that are now crumbling were built in their era, most of our teaching hospitals, were built in their era, infact the backbone upon which the country is struggling to stand right now were put in place during their era. So tell me what has the current or recent pass leaders done. The only reference we have are our leaders. So comparing them, Buhari and Gowon are far better reference point than any other. Mind you Gowon was a war time leader, so GEJ can’t use that excuse.

          • Chima

            @Okemute, I believe you are an educated man/woman so I will want you to be a bit more analytical with correct stats. When Gown was HOS what was the population of Nigeria. What is the population of children of school age for Tertiary, Secondary, and primary age. How many vehicles do you have in Nigeria. Ask the same for your Buhari. What was the state of the railways and the teaching hospitals in terms of carrying capacity. Again it is wrong to link Buhari despotic rule with building refineries check you records and stop repeating half truths. Are you aware that when the hospitals came under pressure with higher population, the response of Idiagbon who was the de-facto ruler then was removing compulsory residency thereby reducing quality of Medicare in Nigeria. Nigeria’s problem is lack of planning that is planning for a massive growing population. After many years of neglect efforts in the Agriculture, Transport like Railways are becoming glaring in the last few years. Finally, are you saying all the infrastructure in Nigeria today are all 35-40yrs old. That is total FALLACY period.

          • Igho Uloho

            Okemute1 is a confirmed uneducated and cowardly Oloye Oluwole from Okitipupa in Ondo state. You can easily decipher from his English, the weird timid ideas. The blight of cowardice inherited from his ancestors in Ilorin is incurable. So, it will be futile attempting to correct him. For him, the Fulani North is Lord forever and he remains loyal for life. Nonsense.

          • Laide2010

            No Name calling!. Bring your facts. People like you only knows how to insult and spew out hate speech. Once they are defeated with superior logic, they turn thing to rough tackle!!.

          • Okemute1

            You see what the poor educational system has done to a poor soul like yours. Senseless to a fault, pointless like no other. What do you disagree with in my comments, let’s discuss it if you are sober enough.

          • Tobi

            you need not reply his shallow mind

          • Aninta

            No mind the shallow of the hollow. Just came to say nothing but express ethnic bigotry.

          • Okemute1

            Hold it there! The population was smaller so was the income and the level of corruption. The price of crude oil and technology is much higher now so you can’t use the issue of high population as an argument. What we earn now is 100 times what we were earning back then but our population is not 100 times what it was back then. Corruption was punishable back then, but it not no longer punishable. My friend don’t argue aimlessly.

          • Jujubeans

            Ezigbo arguing aimlessly..

          • Chima

            The crux of my comment is there is overall lack of planning in Nigeria. Though the govt in power gets blamed for the indiscretion of the past. I have a feeling you may not know the meaning of aimlessness.

          • Okemute1

            My friend I truly don’t know the meaning of aimlessness in your context. If we fail to plan, whose fault is it? The Ghanian govt?

          • deji

            Thank you Okemute1. I am happy that all the patriots have come together to save Nigeria this time around. It is the only country that we have and before our eyes, has been destroyed by vision less leader like the current occupier of Aso Rock.

          • Okemute1

            I sincerely now see the reason for the undeclared war on education by our leaders. Men and women have being reduced to puppets in their own country ready to sell their right for stomach infrastructure. Total lack logical and joined up reasoning. Please I would like all those that push the politics of religion and ethnicity to please cite an example of a country where it has work ahead of competency. GEJ is summarily incompetent. He was and is and would never be prepared for the job of governing a country like nigeria.

          • deji

            Chima is arguing blindly. No facts to supports her claims just sentiments.

          • Chima

            @Deji, You do one great injustice when you accuse one so badly. What is the sentiments here?? Is it not true that our pop. is about 170M and the pop. in 91′ was 88M in 76′ was about 78M. Doesn’t it show that population is increasing fast, where there plans for this increasing population. DO you know in 30 yrs how many new roads has been built in US? Very few roads are built but they maintain and add capacity to existing roads and bridges.

          • deji

            No need doing merry go round with you. Okemute has already answered your question. Go back and read his replies, but this time around with an open mind. Let me give you a hint: Nigeria population was lower in the 90’s and 70’s, and so was her income and corruption.
            Again, if you are talking of maintenance culture, that was exactly what PTF came to address. You noticed that I did not reply you directly in my first post to Okemute1?

          • Okemute1

            You fail to say that they had a well network road system in place so no need to continue build new ones. In the case of nigeria, there is only one sensible road from lagos to benin, why have we not built another one since Gowon built the one GEJ is trying to renovate but failing.

          • Chima

            I started using Ore-Benin-Asaba-Onitsha-Owerri road in the past year and I have found that stretch effectively useable. I am aware of a Sagamu-Ore road that seem to be worsening especially at approaching Ore after Ijebu-Ode. I now consider you very partisan since you cant acknowledge efforts on the road by MOW and the parallel effort in fixing the railways across the nation.

          • Okemute1

            I am happy you did not include lagos Ore. I can see you chose to extend it in the other direction, Ore-Benin-Asaba……… GEJ has nothing to do with that stretch. Benin to Ofosu was ok and completed before GEJ assumed office. He did Ofusu to Ore a distance of less than 100km. No Benin to lagos is about 340km and less than 30 (100km) is motorable and you want us to make GEJ life president. I say due to lack of achievements on the part of GEJ and PDP you guy are over milking this non achievement.

          • DecodeDaRiddle

            We also had traffic issues hence the need for ODD and EVEN numbers for cars. The infrastructures were sizeable and we were at par with the relevant developments. We had Nigeria Airways, and we were reckoned with but now, we have no national carrier, no roads, no light, no industries, all we have are just phanthom figures of largest economy while many Nigerians go to bed hungry.

          • Ogom

            Idiagbon was NOT the “de-facto ruler”.. Why do you people keep repeating this falsehood?

            Most of the infrastructure today IS 30 to 40 years old.. Refineries, bridges, airports, etc. For example, Oworonshoki half of Third mainland bridge was completed in ’91. National Theatre, Eko Bridge, National Stadium, Ikorodu Road.. Need I go on?

            What about the roads and bridges to the East? Those are probably just as old, if not older.

            Those old-timers are better than Jonathan any day.

          • Chima

            ’91 till now is not 30yrs or is it 40yrs. The crux of my comment remained ” we lack planning for the future”. Planning is more than anything else. Even these your old guys had very little forward look. By the way I can debate Gowon but what yardstick will I use to measure GMB(in his 20 months) since really he was not ruling at least if he was IBB couldn’t have shoved him aside according to GMB.

          • Ogom

            The Oworonshoki half was completed in ’91. The section from Ikoyi to Yaba was finished at least a decade earlier.

            It’s also meaningless to say that if GMB had been ruling well, he wouldn’t have been overthrown by IBB… At least, that is what I think you’re saying (you must be texting while driving, or something)

            IBB would have overthrown Mandela if he was in the way.

          • Okemute1

            You pick 91, and you ignore the point he was actually referring to. He is talking about the era Nigeria was built. The 70s and 80s

          • Okemute1

            My personal person correct yan. The sa,e point I was making.

  • Nwokolo

    I appreciate Zainab Usman and Olly Owen for this research not withstanding its limitations (and of course all research have limitations). However, having carefully gone through this scholarly work and putting all the facts of this piece together gives a lot of hope that our democracy would grow afterall. With the successful merger of the Legacy parties to form the APC against all expectations by the fear mongering political class, our democractic potentials and political consciousness have been re-awakened across board. Even this research is a product of this re-awakened consciousness. If this were the outcome of the research spanning several months ago and if Nigerians remain issue based in their decisions,then with worsening security, worsening corruption, worsening power situation, naira depreciation, increasing unemployment,declining oil revenue,inflation etc in the present day, the outcome of the elections next year is near PREDICTABLE. Welldone guys!

    • Madiba

      Good one Prof. Nwokolo!

  • Uzoma

    A couple of reminders!

    1. This study was conducted by two researchers, one of which is not a Nigerian. Most commenters have gone as if Zinab Usman carried out the study alone.

    2. Zainab Usman is a member of the Premium Times editorial board and I doubt that having GEJ sympathies is one of the qualifications for getting such a recognition from Premium Times.

    3. There is hardly any categorical statement in this piece: from the caption that says “Jonathan _may_ get overall majority…” right down to the concluding caveats, every statement is heavily hedged. This is as it should be.

  • Wise Head

    Another of such “analysis”
    Well, if Gen Buhari’s wins the elections, someone is suggesting to him here how to constitute his APC Cabinet in order to really sanitize Nigeria and usher in peace, progress and prosperity. Below is the list of the proposed cabinet
    ———————————
    Bola Tinubu — Finance Minister/EFCC Chairman
    Atiku Abubakar — Governor of Central Bank
    Imam Abubakar Shekau — Minister of Defence
    Oluremi Tinubu — Minister of Petroleum
    Dr. Junaid Mohammed — Minister of Peace/National Integration
    Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola — Minister of Religious Dialogue
    Lai Mohammed — Minister of Propaganda
    Rotimi Amaechi — Nollywood Minister in charge of Political drama and Private Jet Acquisitions
    Rabiu Kwnkwaso — Minister of state for Peace and Political Maturity
    Bukola Saraki —- Minister of Failed Banks Revival
    Nasir el-Rufai —- Minister of Social Media
    Emir Sanusi L. Sanusi — Minister of Women Affairs
    Murtala Nyako — Director of Due Process and Budgeting

    • Jujubeans

      This is a QUANTITATIVE analysis based on DATA. We need far more of this kind of “analysis” (to quote you) in Nigeria, not beer parlour gossip based on primordial sentiments and conjecture, the kind that is so often espoused by your kind.

  • The is more of an historical research hinged on the 2011 elections. The dynamics has since changed in the South-West.If APC should field Buhari-Fashola ticket, I bet you the Muslim-Muslim ticket will not be an issue. Buhari will tackle corruption while Fashola will strengthen the system administratively.

  • Mark Dayo

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  • MushinSpeaks

    Job well done!

    But trends have changed and we must also realise that our research may prove us wrong especially with the current state of things in the country.

  • Lara

    NO CHRISTIAN VOTE IN NORTHERN NIGERIA

    “Christians are being killed by Boko Haram insurgents in
    Mubi on discovering any Christian who cannot recite a part of the Koran known
    as Kalimatu Shahada and who is not ready to denounce the
    name of Jesus Christ and embrace Islam.”

    ………………….Joseph Namu

    (Reporting to THISDAY from Mubi)

    November 6th, 2014

    • seeker

      You must be Ignorant of the Islam teaching to say Boko haram are muslim. SHINE your EYEs Bros this is politics, not religion crisis. unless you decided to play religious Card here.

      • peace

        I Think you are the one that is ignorant here. If you are knowledgeable in the hadith and quoran more than shekau, the BH leader, why didn’t own up when he challenged muslems all over whole for a debate: if what he is doing was outside what islam teaches?.

        • Okemute1

          No he is not. Unless you can explain to me why we only have 20000 soldier in the north east fighting Boko haram but more were deployed to Ekiti and Osun for the election. The boko haram debacle is purely political gear toward refocusing the mind of nigeria on pointless discussion and argument. A sincere govt that want to address the problem will come down so hard on both fighters and supporters they will curse the date of their birth.

        • Otile

          Don’t mind him, Imam Shekau is a true Muslim.

  • joe

    Bad news

  • Laolu Apara

    Opinion dont win elections Votes do. i will regard this as opinion and would comment after perusal

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