UPDATED: Obama wins historic re-election as 44th President of United States

President Barack Obama wins a second presidential term

President Barack Obama put a halt on the insurgent Republican bid for his presidency Tuesday night in Ohio by capturing that crucial electoral battleground state that his opponent, the Republican flag bearer, Mr. Mitt Romney, initially gave indication to dispute  but later called President Obama to congratulate him.

He afterwards gave a concession speech urging the American people to pray for President Obama and America.

Mr. Mitt Romney lost in all the six swing states ultimately giving Mr. Obama 303 electoral college votes to Mr. Romney’s 203 votes. Mr. Obama also trumped his opponent in popular votes effectively making him the 44th president of the United States.

By this victory, Mr. Obama, the first African American president, made history as the only president to win an election with an economy in depression, evidence, however that the American people accepted his message that while a lot had been achieved, the work to remake America is not yet done.

He raked in the 18 electoral votes for Ohio ensuring by that move that his reelection is assured after about 18 months of a backbreaking campaign that asserted his diligent pursuit of a coalition of middle and working class African Americans, Asians, Hispanics and whites. “we
are all in this together, we started it together, and we shall pull it through together” Mr. Obama tweeted after the election was called.

The core message of the president campaign was tax reform to ease the burden of middle class folks, education and training to create a new generation of new jobs, immigration and health reforms the auto industry. Day after day, Obama reminded Ohio voters of the thousands of auto jobs saved at plants around the state.

It is unclear now what course Mr. Romney wishes to pursue, as all his campaign operatives scrupulously evaded media attention refusing to pick their phones.

However the election also witnessed some high profile senatorial decisions like the Massachusetts’s Elizabeth Warren, Harvard Law professor and famous consumer advocate, who defeated Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.)

Prof. Warren was the intellectual architect of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and its first head that was denied a permanent appointment due to objections from congressional Republicans and from within the Treasury Department.


Read our initial post below.

President Barack Obama has been reelected the president of the United States, the Cable News Network is reporting.

Mr. Obama wrapped up a spectacular victory after winning the swing battleground state of Ohio which takes his electoral vote to over 270.

Mitt Romney’s camp are yet to concede Ohio, saying the race is still too close to call.

But the New York Times says Mr. Obama’s victory in some other battleground states of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, the President now has 285 electoral votes. He needs  at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency for another four years.

The race, the paper says, remains too close to call in Florida.


The Virginia race was always one of the closest in the nation and one that both camps said they needed to win in order to succeed in the presidential election.

More to come…


Read our earlier analysis predicting the victory

Election 2012 Prediction: Before the first presidential debate, Barack Obama was on his way to being re-elected by a comfortable (if not landslide) margin in both the popular and electoral vote. As soon as Mitt Romney was declared the “winner” of that event, however, Republicans began declaring that their champion had turned the race around. While subsequent polls have confirmed this to be the case, they have also showed Romney heading for a defeat comparable to that suffered by Hubert Humphrey at the hands of Richard Nixon in 1968 (a historical analogy to which I will return later). Despite making the battle for the popular vote among the closest in history, Romney will ultimately be thwarted by his opponent’s insurmountable advantage in the Electoral College.

That advantage has been one of the marvels of the Obama campaign. Even during the nadir of the President’s re-election bid (i.e., the period following the October 3rd debate), he still maintained sound, if somewhat diminished, leads in many of this election’s key swing states. Had the political conditions that existed in the fortnight after the initial debate remained unaltered for the rest of the race, Obama would still have picked up Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. When added to the solidly pro-Obama states, these victories alone would have put 277 electoral votes in the President’s column, seven more than the 270 needed to win in the Electoral College.

For this, Obama can thank the underrated strength of his campaign’s ground operation, as well as the shrewdness with which they have tailored his political message based on regional issues (e.g., stressing Romney’s opposition to the auto bailout in states like Michigan and Ohio). That said, the natural vicissitudes of American politics have been just as important to his fortunes. For one thing, nearly five weeks have passed since Romney’s perceived triumph in the first debate, more than enough time for the political momentum he gained from that event to peter out on its own. Accelerating that process was the general impression that Obama had at the very least held his own in the second and third debates, which helped offset some of the damage from the first contest. Finally, approval of the President’s handling of Hurricane Sandy has given him a statistically significant bounce in the polls. As a result, the swing states of Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, all of which were trending toward Romney in the days when the first debate remained freshest in the public’s memory, are now more likely to go to Obama. While Romney has held on to the post-October 3rd leads he developed in North Carolina and Florida, those acquisitions won’t be enough to tip things in his favor. Instead, the President has risen from the rock bottom figure of 277 electoral votes to a probable 303 electoral votes. This is where he stands now… and why I predict that Obama will defeat Romney by 303 to 235 in the Electoral College.

The popular vote has a very different story. Barring a few brief hiccups, Obama was consistently ahead of Romney prior to the first debate; after it, national polls have repeatedly flipped the popular vote back and forth between the two men. This is where the Humphrey campaign offers a useful historical parallel: Like Romney with Obama, Humphrey trailed behind Nixon through the bulk of the campaign until a single game-changing moment roughly five weeks before Election Day caused him to rapidly improve in the polls (due in Humphrey’s case to a widely-lauded speech on the Vietnam War). Had the election been held one week later, it is quite possible that Humphrey would have been among the handful of Also Rans to win the popular vote while losing the election itself (including Andrew Jackson in 1824, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and Al Gore in 2000). Instead, Humphrey fell behind Nixon in the popular vote by 0.7%, making the 1968 election one of six in which less than a single percentage point separated the two major candidates (the others being in 1880, 1884, 1888, 1960, 1968, and 2000). More importantly, he lost in the Electoral College by 302 to 191 (with 45 electoral votes going to segregationist third-party candidate George Wallace). Like Obama, Nixon had carefully built up a firewall of strength in the one place that, for better or worse, matters most.

My hunch is that Romney will also lose the popular vote by less than one percent, although for the sake of convenience, I’m rounding Obama to 50% and Romney to 49% (as well as giving 1% to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, with the rest being split among various third parties). This would leave Obama with the dubious distinction of having the closest popular margin of victory ever received by a re-elected president, a record currently held by none other than George W. Bush (who beat John Kerry in 2004 by 2.4%). Of course, it is also quite possible that Romney will do what Humphrey could not and actually win the popular vote, which would make Obama the only incumbent to win another term without a plurality of the votes cast. Either way, one can safely bet against the Republicans actually winning the White House this year. What journalist Theodore H. White wrote of Humphrey will be just as true of Romney:

“As if by defiance of all political gravity, [he] had converted the downsweep of early autumn into a soaring upward streak that was to miss the rung of the magic trapeze by finger-short margins.”

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