Supplementary polls for the governorship election in Kebbi State will be held in 142 polling units across the state. Elections will also be held in 23 units for the Kebbi north senatorial district election.
There will also be supplementary elections in 10 House of Assembly and two federal constituencies in Arewa-Dandi and Koko-Besse.
For the governorship election, there are 91,829 eligible voters in the affected polling units.
The contest in the senatorial election is largely between Yahaya Abdullahi of PDP and Hussaini Kangiwa of APC.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had declared the elections inconclusive following the cancellation of results in polling units in 20 out of 21 local government areas of the state.
The contests are largely between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), being represented by Nasir Idris, and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has Aminu Bande, a former military general, as governorship candidate.
Mr Idris currently has 388,258 votes with Mr Bande trailing him with 342,980 votes. The election was declared inconclusive because the difference of 45,278 votes that separates them is lower than the number of eligible voters in the areas, based on the Permanent Voter’s Card collected, which stand at 91,829.
The APC in the state is led by Govevrnor Atiku Bagudu while the PDP is led by a senator and former governor, Adamu Aliero.
Prior to the presidential and National Assembly elections on the 25 of February, the two parties were in bouyant moods and attacked each other relentlessly.
While the PDP accused the APC of not fulfilling its campaign promises, the APC accused the PDP of being part of the mess since most of its members were in the APC before defecting.
Although Messrs Idris and Bande are the governorship candidates, the contest on Saturday is seen as between Messrs Bagudu and Aliero, who were political allies until this election cycle.
Bagudu and Aliero
When Mr Aliero left the Senate in 2007 to join late President Umar Yar’adua’s cabinet as minister, he supported Mr Bagudu to take over his Senate seat. In 2015, he also supported Mr Bagudu to become governor while Mr Aliero returned to the Senate under the APC.
But when it became obvious that at the end of Mr Bagudu’s tenure, he would vie for the Kebbi central senatorial seat, Mr Aliero dumped the APC and joined the PDP. He did not however leave alone. He took another incumbent senator, Yahaya Abdullahi, and other federal lawmakers with him.
Defining Factors
The outcomes of the presidential and National Assembly elections affected the APC in the governorship election on 18 March. Before the election, many thought PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, did not stand a chance against the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, in Kebbi. That permutation was largely due to the influence of Mr Bagudu, who is a very strong ally of the former Lagos governor.
But as it turned out, Mr Aliero led the PDP to victory. The opposition party got 285,175 votes while the APC got 248,088 votes.
Mr Aliero also defeated Mr Bagudu in the senatorial election in Kebbi central district. Mr Aliero polled 126,588 votes while Mr Bagudu got 92,389, the former governor beating the incumbent with a margin of 34,199 votes.
Another surprise was around the corner for the APC when a debutant, Garba Maidoki of PDP defeated veteran parliamentarian, Bala Ibn Na’Allah, with 75,732 votes to 70,785 votes in the Kebbi South senatorial race
The results gave the PDP the zeal to fight in the 18 March election.
However, on that day, the APC won a majority in the state House of Assembly. The state has 24 assembly members but elections were suspended in 10 constituencies.
Out of the 14 that were announced, APC won 11 seats while the PDP won only three. The 11 returning APC members can have an impact in the governorship election and swing the tide towards their party.
READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Bagudu’s performance, APC crises, other factors to decide Kebbi governorship race
One factor that will work in the favour of PDP is the protracted crisis in the APC in Kebbi State that led to the exit of Messrs Aliero and Yahaya with their supporters. The crisis did not end with their exit as several members alleged they were being persecuted for being sympathetic to the ousted senators. Several local lawmakers were suspected to have worked for Mr Aliero and it manifested few days to the presidential election.
The governor was accused of not carrying party members along and of being an Abuja politician. While he was expected to be in Kebbi State in preparation for the rerun election, Mr Bagudu was mostly seen in Abuja with the president-elect, Mr Tinubu, or at the Presidential Villa.
Top APC leaders like Mr Na’Allah are not expected to have much influence following their defeat in the last election.
The suspension of the member representing Koko/Besse constituency, Shehu Muhammad, on Thursday, by the APC also showed that the crisis in the party is far from over.
The PDP may also use where the APC candidate, Mr Idris, comes from, Birnin Kebbi, same local government area as Mr Bagudu, to sway voters to their party.
However, while the PDP can boast of Messrs Aliero and Yahaya (the two leaders of the party in the state) the APC candidate is taking a massive lead of 45,278 votes to the supplementary poll. This means that the PDP has a mountain to climb to cover that deficit.
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