How presidential election outcome may affect Kaduna governorship race

The result of the 25 February presidential election in Kaduna State left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) rattled.

APC has governed the state since 2015 through Governor Nasir El-Rufai and comfortably won all elections in the state in 2019.

While there was disaffection with Mr El-Rufai’s government in the Christian-dominated southern senatorial district of the state, the APC enjoyed the support of the Muslim majority, especially in the northern part of the state.

Presidential election upset

But the results of the presidential and federal legislative elections of February caught the APC by surprise in the state. In the presidential election, the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar won in all the strongholds of the APC in the northern part of the state.

According to the results declared by INEC, the PDP polled 554,360 votes from across the state, ahead of the APC which scored 399,293 votes and the LP which had 294,494 votes.

It was the first time the APC lost the state in a presidential election since 2015.

The result portrayed a new voting pattern in the state, considering that the PDP candidate got the majority of his votes from the northern part of the state where the APC usually enjoyed popularity.

The PDP also won the state’s three senatorial seats, snatching the two
currently being held by the APC.

The opposition party also won 10 of the 16 House of Representatives seats, with the APC winning only four and Labour Party two.

What results mean for PDP

Not surprisingly, the PDP, which has Isah Ashiru as its governorship candidate, is going to Saturday’s poll as the party to beat. The party is confident of reclaiming the state it ruled for 16 years until its defeat by Governor El-Rufai’s APC in 2015.

Going by how people voted in the state during the presidential election, the PDP is expected to have its best outing since 2015 this time around. But will the pattern of voting from 25 February continue in the governorship election on 18 March?

If the pattern continues, the PDP will cruise to victory again on Saturday.

Labour Party, the spoiler

However, there is a major obstacle in the path of the PDP’s seemingly unstoppable march to the Sir Kashim Ibrahim House, the seat of the governor in Kaduna State. This is in the new romance with the Labour Party by the people of southern Kaduna. The area had been the fortress of the PDP in the state until the Labour Party emerged on the scene.

The PDP used to enjoy massive support from the Christian-dominated district. But that may not be the same this time around as the last elections indicate that the Labour Party has supplanted the PDP in the affection of the people of the area.

The LP has Jonathan Asake, a former president of the main association of indigenes of the area, as its governorship candidate. Despite appeals to him to step down for Mr Ashiru of the PDP to ensure that the APC does not sneak in through the cracks in the opposition as it just did in the presidential election, Mr Asake has intensified his campaigns.

The LP is seeking his own route to victory through the calculation that the APC and PDP candidates, who are both Muslims, would share the votes in the Muslim-populated northern part of the state, while he would draw the bulk of the votes in southern Kaduna.

However, considering the strong support that the PDP had always enjoyed in the region, many voters may still go for Mr Ashiru. This tendency was seen in the 25 February elections where the PDP candidate won the senatorial seat in the southern Kaduna region despite the people voting massively for Peter Obi of the Labour Party on the same day.

If that happens and the PDP is able to retain significant support in the area, it will be a big boost for the chances of Mr Ashiru.

APC and the Buhari campaign strategy

The APC appears to be recovering from the shock of the presidential election defeat and has focused on the governorship election.

One strategy the party has employed is convincing President Muhammadu Buhari to join the campaign for the party in the state.

President Buhari, in a special video broadcast shared by the governorship campaign team of Uba Sani in Kaduna on Wednesday, appealed to Kaduna people to vote for the APC candidates in the elections.

In the video broadcast, Mr Buhari begged the people of Kaduna to vote for
APC candidates in all positions in the state on election day.

The Buhari video strategy is well-thought-out. Many loyalists and sympathisers of the president whose second home is Kaduna will buy into the call. It will also alert many voters who did not vote during the presidential elections to vote in these elections.

Muslim-Muslim ticket strategy

The Muslim-Muslim ticket strategy introduced by Governor El-Rufai,
which worked for him in 2019, may also help Mr Sani.

While many residents of the state accused the LP of campaigning and voting based on religious sentiments in the presidential elections, many who voted for the PDP in the presidential election in the Muslim-populated northern region of the state may this time vote for the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket.

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And if there is no last-minute alliance with the Labour Party and the PDP loses southern Kaduna votes, it may prove fatal for Mr Ashiru’s bid.

In the final analysis, the major contest will be between the APC and the PDP in Kaduna on Saturday. The PDP will take confidence from the success it recorded in the presidential election in the state while the APC has to look beyond its defeat in the election.