ANALYSIS: Lessons APC must learn from Osun West defeat, By Wale Adedayo

Governor of Osun state, Rauf Aregbesola during campaign [Photo:]
Governor of Osun state, Rauf Aregbesola during campaign [Photo:]

1. The margin of victory was wide.

2. The spread of the victory was very wide too.

3. It shows there was, and still anger, beneath the surface of regular support being displayed towards the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun State.

Lessons MUST be learnt. Why?

1. The PDP victory in the Osun West Senatorial by-election was not due to anger against the lacklustre performance of President Muhammadu Buhari. Why? APC won decisively in Ondo State.

2. The victory of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could not be due to the underground division in Osun State APC. A worse and open division preceded the Ondo State election. Yet, APC won.

3. It appears the people are not happy. And the first place to start is reconnection with the same people who defied hooded State Security Service (SSS) officials and soldiers to give Governor Rauf Aregbesola a return ticket for his second term.

4. An overhaul of media machinery (formal and informal) is necessary along with an organisational approach that rewards party faithful for their past and current contributions to electoral success.

5. I remain firmly convinced that Education and Rural Development remain Governor Aregbesola’s best legacies despite the current challenges. The elites made some successful efforts to rally ordinary people against late Obafemi Awolowo when his programmes began. They could not see beyond their noses. Fortunately, Awo did the needful to correct obvious lapses.

6. Abuja was not only neutral, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) staff too behaved. And INEC staff have every reason to. Some of them with sympathy for APC in the 2015 elections are currently answering questions with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which is a very good development for our young democracy.

7. On the whole, kudos to both sides for an electoral battle well-fought. And, congratulations to the PDP, especially those who strategically exploited the death of Senator Isiaka Adeleke to reposition the opposition in the South-West!

Wale Adedayo was political editor of THE PUNCH, and former media aide to ex-Governor Gbenga Daniel.


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  • Musa M. Dantsoho

    From day one when APC refused to field late Adeleke’s brother, I was quite certain the party had lost the election. Two reasons made me to believe the party lost. The first reason was popularity of the late Senator in his Senatorial district and second, the reaction of his constituency at his burial procession.

    • Gideons

      You’re very great sir.

      • aisha ani

        No, “baba so pe” here.

        • Musa M. Dantsoho

          Sorry, brother I don’t understand Yoruba.

          • aisha ani

            Not a brother, it means “baba said”. Baba said we should replace Adeleke’s brother with Husein, the Baba is Bola Tinubu.

          • Musa M. Dantsoho

            Well, if that was the case, His Excellency, Aregbosola should be blamed for allowing such blunder took place
            I remember similar meddlesome in Kogi State for an attempt to impose Falake, but the party vehemently refused to tow the line of imposition.

          • Freee speech

            I disagree with all that Tinubu talk! Leave tinubu out of this….what simply happened was that isiaka Adeleke was a very loved man in his osun west disrict! Not a singe person had a bad word to say about him upon hos demise! Acordingly, if his dog was presented as the candidate, the dog would have won based on sympathy vote for the late Adeleke! Aregbesola and co failed to see this. Their own thinking was that Hussain Mudasiru beat Isiaka Adeleke at the same Osun-west district a few years ago at the polls so what is to say he cant now beat his younger brother?
            But that was then……the difference now is the death of Isiaka….people`s sympathy was with the family.

            If Isiaka adeleke was not dead, and he ran against Hussain Mudasiru……the result may have been different because there would have been no sentiment of death and no sympathy of death and it would have been a free election……Isiaka Adeleke was too much f a good man to the people of that Axis that they were not going to show loyalty to him by voting anyone simply related to him! 4 years from now….Demola Adeleke would more than likely not win the election! Aregbesola should have very simply read the handwriting on the wall!! But lets not forget that the same Aregbesola prevailed on Hussain to step down for Isiaka Adeleke in 2015 when omisore and his friends victimised Isiaka Adeleke out of the PDP that year and he had to suddenly decamp to APC to contest! So its understandable if Aregbesola now wants to compensate Hussain!