ANALYSIS: Research group, Eurasia, predicts big win for Buhari

We change our election forecast from a narrow win for incumbent Goodluck Jonathan to a victory for opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari (60% probability).

The electoral map is tilting towards Buhari in the swing regions of the southwest and middle belt, while high turnout in his core northern base will offset Jonathan’s advantage in the Niger Delta.

While a Buhari administration’s reliance on technocratic, business-oriented senior officials will lead to constructive policy initiatives, we keep our long-term trajectory at neutral given the downside risks to oil production and policy implementation challenges.
 

Buhari edges ahead

We had long viewed Goodluck Jonathan as a favourite to win reelection, but a number of factors now lead us to believe the edge has swung in Buhari’s favor. The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.

Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide. Equally important are the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and widespread desire for change. Tepid support for Jonathan, even within his own party, means there is no guarantee that patronage will translate into votes. This is especially the case in the north where influential PDP governors and other leaders are taking the money but barely campaigning for Jonathan because of Buhari’s overwhelming popularity in the region.

While we expected the electoral map to favor Jonathan, current trends suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the Christian-majority and heavily populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive demographic factor in the election. Jonathan won the southwest and middle belt handily in 2011, but faces an uphill task now. Buhari has reached out to the southwestern Yoruba community and brought them into the upper ranks of his campaign and potential administration, in a political alliance of the country’s two largest ethnic groups (the Hausa and Yoruba). In contrast, Jonathan has struggled to make inroads with either group.

The spotty polling data which is available is also trending in favor of Buhari. A recent poll by a credible local think tank, the Center for Public Policy Alternatives, showed a heavy 58-32% lead for Buhari in Lagos state—a state in which Jonathan handily defeated Buhari last election. While a national poll by Afrobarometer in January showed a statistical dead heat at 42% for each candidate, economic conditions with the weakening naira continue to deteriorate, along with the security environment. According to an IPSOS/Eurasia Group model for predicting elections, incumbents have a hard time winning reelection when their approval ratings are below 40%. We don’t have polling data to confirm where Jonathan is now, but given he was at around 50% at the end of last year, our best guess is that he is below 40% now.

In addition, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has suffered few defections during the campaign despite plenty of PDP inducements, suggesting a relatively united coalition whose members have confidence in the prospects of victory. In contrast, the PDP has been weakened by internal power struggles, including the dramatic departure from the party by former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Another obstacle for the PDP is the downturn in the economy, especially the naira devaluations that have hit pocketbooks hard in the import-dependent country. That has played into the APC’s rallying call for change at an inopportune time for the ruling party.

Despite some important military gains against Boko Haram in the northeast and a partial exoneration of its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, the PDP is starting to look desperate. Examples include: forcing the election delay, seeking (unofficially) the resignation of respected Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission (INEC) head Attahiru Jega, questioning Buhari’s health, playing sectarian politics, and casting doubts about the new permanent voter cards. This raises the possibility of another election delay, but we think that is relatively unlikely, in part because it would probably backfire politically and would certainly do so internationally. While some of his aides and military leaders may feel otherwise, Jonathan himself is unlikely to support such a maneuver.

Expect a contested election outcome

The above does suggest, however, that the administration will contest the election if it loses, especially if it is close. Whether that contestation is violent and protracted, or limited to a court challenge (which would likely uphold INEC’s election verdict) remains to be seen; it will likely be somewhere in between the two. Worst-case scenarios like a military seizure of Abuja or a self-declaration of victory by the PDP and de facto partition (like Cote d’Ivoire in 2011) cannot be discounted entirely but are unlikely. That’s in part due to the enthusiasm gap for Jonathan and also because of his own temperament. The concern, though, is if his administration is hijacked by hardliners in the PDP who will do whatever it takes to stay in power and forestall a dreaded Buhari presidency that they fear will prosecute them for corruption.

A look ahead at a possible Buhari presidency

Buhari is a radically different politician and leader than Jonathan, and his approach to security and corruption will be a sharp departure from the status quo, most likely for the better. When it comes to policies, however, there may be less divergence than meets the eye, especially in the economic realm. Many of Jonathan’s priorities—power and agriculture reform, local content regulations, and selective liberalization of the economy—will also be priorities under a Buhari administration, with differences of emphasis. Buhari may additionally look to liberalize the rail, refinery, and gas pipeline industries, none of which will be easy.

Even though a Buhari win may be the better outcome for investors over time, we are keeping our short-term trajectory (six months) at negative and long-term political outlook (two years) at neutral. In the near term, the post-election climate will be tense and likely contested regardless of who wins. But in contrast to Jonathan, a Buhari administration has a different mix of assets and liabilities. On the plus side, a Buhari administration would be stronger in tackling corruption, more reformist in the oil sector, and less likely to allow politics to swamp the business climate.

The reason we aren’t upgrading Nigeria’s outlook to positive, however, rests in the potential for an oil disruption and the likely pushback to Buhari’s policy agenda in a highly polarized political climate. His victory is likely to unleash a resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta (Jonathan’s home region) that targets the oil sector. Former Delta militants have threatened to blow up oil pipelines, platforms, and personnel as in the past when they routinely took up to 500,000 barrels per day offline. There is likely some bluster in their threats. The former MEND movement barely exists, but it could be reconstituted. It is likely in the aftermath of a Buhari win that pro-Jonathan ex-militants disrupt oil production, potentially on a market-moving scale. The risk may not be sustained for long, as most of the former militants are more interested in collecting their amnesty payments, enriching themselves from oil bunkering, and tending to business interests in oil and security. Opportunists may see a chance, though, to gain leverage for future amnesty deals, especially as the current amnesty program rewards militants roughly in proportion to their rank and ruthlessness.

Second, even though fiscal management is likely to be constructive, there are still some uncertainties about the broad direction of his economic team. The austere 2015 budget proposal that now includes a low $52 oil benchmark (in the Senate version in consultation with the ministry of finance) is likely to be broadly compatible with Buhari’s own vision for fiscal policy in the near term. Despite some expansive welfare and public works pledges in his campaign manifesto, the oil price climate, together with Buhari’s top economic advisors, will dictate austerity at least in 2015. That’s also consistent with his track record when he was in office in the 1980s.

It is not clear, though, that Buhari has a strong economic policy orientation. This uncertainty is a chief risk for investors. Two different camps from inside his campaign will likely vie for control of economic (and other) policy. In short-hand, one camp is dominated by southwestern (Lagos and surrounding states) technocrats and businesspeople while the other is an old guard of northern aides and politicians with longstanding ties to Buhari. The policy gap between the two is vast, with the first group pro-business and pro-liberalization and the latter group more statist and nationalist in orientation. The signal from the campaign is that the southwestern group is ascendant when it comes to the economy while the northern group will get important posts outside of the economic realm, including national security. Such a division of labor would be positive for the investment climate, particularly since Buhari is known as a delegator outside of his core issues of national security and to a lesser extent, petroleum.

Buhari’s likely approach to tax policy and tax enforcement is instructive. His emphasis, at least at the outset, will not be on raising or lowering taxes but rather enforcing the current tax regime, which is widely ignored by companies and individuals alike. Using successful tax enforcement models from Lagos and elsewhere in the southwest, the administration would look to combine a zero tolerance approach (stiff penalties) with greater transparency in the collection effort to ”plug leakages.” Plugging leakages is a recurring mantra among Buhari’s economic advisors, who are convinced that tax/customs enforcement, revenue transparency, and tough anti-corruption measures will bring billions of dollars into the treasury without raising taxes or even including oil revenues in the equation. That may be a hopeful assessment in the current oil price climate, but there is conviction behind it from the economic team.

Having been the petroleum minister previously, Buhari is likely to take a more hands-on approach to the sector. He will push for reforms on multiple tracks—reform of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), reform of oil revenue transmission to the state (plugging leakages), and reform of the fiscal/regulatory climate for oil companies, perhaps in that order. Buhari’s platform calls for restructuring NNPC so that it is leaner and has less regulatory authority (and conflicts of interest) in the sector. This could allow for the commercialization of its upstream operations, allowing it to borrow on international markets to make its joint venture cash calls.

The process is likely to be slow, with some pushback from vested interests. That will be countered by the president’s discretion to appoint the petroleum minister, the head and board of NNPC, and many others in decision-making positions. While corruption will not magically disappear, there will be fewer sweat-heart deals for favored local companies or opaque oil swaps, and high profile prosecutions will set a tone of accountability that has been absent under the Jonathan administration. A Buhari administration would funnel oil revenues to the Central Bank through the Single Treasury Account rather than through dozens of banks as is currently the norm. The Petroleum Investment Bill (PIB) will again be reformulated and probably streamlined into a far less expansive reform package; fiscal terms will improve of necessity for IOCs. This will open up a window of opportunity for passage of a far narrower PIB, especially if the opposition APC gains a parliamentary majority. Failing that, a Buhari government would focus on unblocking the many oil and gas disputes with IOCs (blocked by vested interests) that are forestalling additional exploration and development.

Eurasia is a political risk research and consulting company.

ANALYSIS: Jonathan will win 2015 election by slim margin — Research group, Eurasia


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  • Bello Harpheez Orlan’rewaju

    I hope so too because we need change …….. Sai buhari

  • Garden-City Boy

    Just as the Chatham House widow-dress, we know that David Axlerod is well on duty to earn his hire. Defining this Eurasia Group as “an internationally reputed political risk research and consulting firm”, leaves much to be desired. The undue emphasis on “internationally reputed” knocks the bottom off this puerile APC-JANJAWEED propaganda acrobatics.
    If indeed this group does exist and is “international”, are we to take it that it turned a blind eye to Buhari’s antecedents in making this popularity absurdity that favors a man who is known to stand against every democratic norm? Is this Eurasia group “internationally reputable” when a man who murdered three Nigerians for an offense that bore no death penalty at the time it was committed? Buhari threw scores of innocent Nigerians in jail, denying them the chance to due process and legal defense, and causing premature deaths of his victims.
    Eurasia group is “internationally reputable” to declare a man popular when he recently lied on oath and engaged in criminal acts of forgery and impersonation in a mad quest to rule. A man openly declares his alignment with a terrorist organization whose chief negotiator and spokesman he is. It was Buhari who stirred up an almajiri islamic rampage that saw over 800 innocent citizens murdered and scores of NYSC Workers massacred. A ‘reputable, international group” should know this and factor it into the popularity credentials of Muhamadu ( or, is it MOHAMED) Buhari.
    And this Eurasia Group knows that, if indeed it is both “international” and “reputable”. Again, since words mean different things with mullahs, “international” and “reputable” are likely to have acquired different meanings today. On what platform, then, did this non-existent Eurasia Group premise Buhari’s perceived popularity rating? May be it will import 160million aliens into Nigeria to vote for Buhari to prove a bad case.

    • Bourdillion King

      You have got it. it is all too obvious propaganda. No serious “international reputed” research firm would predict an election without an imperical research.

    • Advocate

      just like the channelstv debate, you pdp like speaking gibberish. gej is in lagos bribing everyone, let him conduct a one-million man march in lagos. lets see

      • Ade

        I don’t believe you live in Lagos that crowd could not fill Emirate stadium London! The crowd you saw were paid groups and associations from the purse of Osun, Ogun and Lagos governors. In a few weeks the noise will be put to rest and Bu-gari will retired for ever. You can put your money where your mouth is if you doubt it. Give us a list of so called Eurasia successful polls forecast else where in the world in the past ten years-rubbish propaganda.

    • Naija Poet

      You seem to have ignored the fact that the same Eurasia Group has earlier predicted that GEJ will win with a narrow margin. But now have updated their scenarios and predictions based on the momentum garnered by GMB. On both occasions, they have tried to be objective based on developments on the ground. What all these scenarios meant is that neither GEJ nor GMB can take things for granted until the last vote is counted.

  • Joshua C. King

    This is the stuff that fabrications are made of. On the streets in Lagos, most people are indifferent about the election. The hitherto undecided have made up their minds to reelect the president because the alternative is being sponsored by a man who fleeces them. In the south south and south east, we know where their loyalty lies. The north central will remain in the hands of the PDP. GEJ will retain his 25- 39% votes from the core north. Even with failing card readers, voter apathy in the south west and possible election day rains, GEJ will win the election by 5 to 9 million votes cast by a maximum of 35 to 40 million votes. Eurasia or AKPD, Nigerians know that the APC’s change is false, Tinubu is backing Buhari for himself, but the ultimate reason for rejecting Buhari is the simple emotion: we want progress not a repeat of old leaders!

    • Khadijah D.

      Stop daydreaming and wake up! This election is already over for GEJ and he knows it, which is why he is running around desperately tryiñg to do what he did not do in 6yrs in this last 6wks. The most pathetic is the recent NIS recruitment scam whereby after abandoning the victims for 1yr, he is suddenly hypocritically sympathetic to them. Same goes to the people of the Northeast. I won’t be surprise if the Chibok girls are miraculously found. Face it, GEJ is the most wicked, ethnocentric myopic self-centered evil president Nigeria has ever had!

      • Advocate

        spot on! shame on nigerians that support gej

      • DazzlingSmile

        Don’t forget he also cut the electricity tariff by %50

        • Walter

          Yea, at what minute?

          • DazzlingSmile

            Yes we are saying the same thing, GEJ is a jack

  • Yusuf

    Spot on! while we admit that it will not be easy, we belive that #change will be worthwhile

  • ADEBAYO ADEYANJU

    AND BIG LOSS FOR JONATHAN.

    • Tunsj

      Well said. A big loss for his wife too.

  • egoigwe

    I have often wondered why the West seems so enamored to Buhari and intensely concerned about the Nigerian situation. The Eurasia Group and its prediction for our 2015 presidential election point to the answer. Clearly, what this Western think tank’s report rejoices about is the possibility that a Buhari administration for Nigeria would be more inclined to belt tightening. They salivate at the prospects of added income that will be used to service external debts more wholesomely. Without a doubt, this is great news for the West that is plagued with currency wars, wastage incurred from self-propelled conflicts around our globe and an Orwellian sense of leadership that has left Western coffers empty and its society near broken. What they see in Buhari is a Structural Adjustment Program candidate. Take a listen:

    “Buhari’s likely approach to tax policy and tax enforcement is instructive. His emphasis, at least at the outset, will not be on raising or lowering taxes but rather enforcing the current tax regime, which is widely ignored by companies and individuals alike. Using successful tax enforcement models from Lagos and elsewhere in the southwest, the administration would look to combine a zero tolerance approach (stiff penalties) with greater transparency in the collection effort…”

    And this is not to say that like in the Lagos model, taxes will not soar perennially for individuals and companies alike under an economic climate that has seen oil revenues drop by as much as 60-75%. It goes on to state that:

    “Plugging leakages is a recurring mantra among Buhari’s economic advisors, who are convinced that tax/customs enforcement, revenue transparency, and tough anti-corruption measures will bring billions of dollars into the treasury without raising taxes or even including oil revenues in the equation. That may be a hopeful assessment in the current oil price climate, but there is conviction behind it from the economic team.”

    Who or what is this economic team/advisors that the report keeps referring to? Have they already picked one for Buhari? Be under no illusions that these billion of dollars the report refers to will be applied to uplifting the plight of the common man in Nigeria, it will not, instead those sums will be targeted and appropriated by the IMF and World Bank and Nigeria thrown into deeper debt. It also goes without saying that all subsidies on fuel will be removed effectively. There will be no negotiations on that score. An indebted and grateful Buhari would only be too pleased to conform. This is why the report refers to increased funds accrual without the prospects of raising taxes and the inclusion of oil revenues as a hopeful assessment or, in other words, wishful thinking.

    What this report should tell the discerning who have studied it, is that the West, whose agents the Eurasia Group is, wishes for Nigerians to feed out of Western dustbins.

    “Having been the petroleum minister previously, Buhari is likely to take a more hands-on approach to the sector. He will push for reforms on multiple tracks—reform of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), reform of oil revenue transmission to the state (plugging leakages), and reform of the fiscal/regulatory climate for oil companies, perhaps in that order.”

    It is clear that “plugging leakages” becomes a euphemism for directing funds allocation to areas that benefit the West and its financial usury organizations. What the above quote from the report means in everyday terms is a reduction in fiscal allocations to the states and increased taxes for oil companies which will in turn lead to an increase in petroleum products (petrol, diesel, jet fuel and lubricants).

    What the report tells us is that a Buhari administration will make things unbearable for the ordinary man on the streets. It tells us we will see protests and blood on our streets as a result of these belt tightening policies, more crimes and social upheavals. The report offers us nothing to be joyful about except perhaps the prospect of feeding from Western dustbins.

  • August January

    Our amiable president Jonathan has said the Group’s forecast is not credible. But it was credible when he was predicted to be the winning candidate in January. Interesting!

    • Tunsj

      Please stop using the word “Our”.

      • DazzlingSmile

        The missing $20 Billion is little to what will be revealed when Buhari takes over

  • paschal

    From most of the statistics given it shows that they (eurasia )are biased n donot hav the right information.the hausas n yorubas are not more populated dan the igbos ,the middle belt are more Jonathan dan even the Níger delta people, recent events shows dat the yorubas are begining to change their minds about gmb .more people from the South hav collected their pvcs .all dis n more tilts towards a Gej victory .

    • opsy

      Pls mention some of such events…bcs u seem to know the mind of millions of yorubas in this country.

  • Eberechi Ezeh

    they didn’t see well, they should see well again bco sGEJ is on the seat already#NO2Buhari

    • Emeka

      How old are u

      • Eberechi Ezeh

        pls am not ready for insults

        • Emeka

          See u. Who say I want to insult u. If u be woman, na so u just missed Ur marriage opportunity. Lol.
          But seriously though, that Ur initial comment nor make sense.

          • Edhighere Mena Princewill

            if it doesnt make sense to you it does to a host of others, i think you should have personalized the “that your initial comment nor make sense”…initially na stylish “toastin”

        • Good response there.

  • Walter

    I don’t support Jonathan but what most people don’t understand is if other people want to rig in Jonathan, there’s a 85% chance of them not informing him in order to protect him. Notwithstanding, my vote is for Buhari

  • funke ade

    The irresponsible allegations of APC:
    These guys dont realise that in Cote d Ivoire, there was already a civil war on, and the UN was part of the electoral process. Also, the opposition had the backing of a certain European Nation! This was why the UN and the AU accepted that the opposition form a parallel Government, after the Supreme Court ruled in favour of the opposition, after the third count. Nigeria is a totally different scenario. No Western Gov is backing any opposition here (people should stop confusing AKPD/consultants propaganda with the neutral position of the US Government). There is no civil war on in Nigeria with the UN involved in our election. The threat of forming a parallel Gov should be treated as TREASON. The false accusations from Tinubu, Mbaka and co, “of Mr President wanting to kill them”, should be legally dealt with! This is criminal, especially, when there is absolutely no evidence. Nigerians dont want desperate politicians to cause confusion and turn Nigeria into a bloodbath, simply because of their own selfish desperation to grab power at all costs!
    This “freedom of expression” has been manipulated irresponsibly by many! People should not make these kinds of unguarded, inflammatory statements at a time like this. What is Tinubu’s evidence? Or Mbaka’s yet every one has heard them. There is no possibility of a Core d’Ivoire happening here! Period!!
    Just imagine that GEJ was Baba, many of them falsely accusing GEJ of wanting to kill them would have been picked up by now……or if GEJ decides to act like Putin, who would have immediately dealt with the threat to form a parallel Government, as the State against treason/conspiracy to destabilise the Nation . We dont see Jeb Bush falsely accusing Obama that he wants to kill him and others, nor do we see Daddy GO Adeboye, the Primate of the Church of Nigeria or the Pope, playing politics and departing from spreading the word of God, to accuse their President of wanting to kill them. If this trend of unchecked propaganda continues, it will unleash a new chapter of horror and violence in Nigeria, as many will be misled by the selfish Confusionsts! Hitler was ignored by many and written off as “all rhetorics”, until he started the second world war!! Nigerians, must start to rise up against these inflammatory statements, as it is clear, that some people want Nigeria to descend into a total State of anarchy!

  • funke ade

    THE MANY SINS OF BUHARI (A CHANGE AGENT?) – Richard Omoko

    Some of the people blind folded by the APC toga of ‘change’ do not clearly understand what they are getting into, while I agree that you have some decent elements in the party APC. Yes decent human beings that are better respected and even I regard as great mentors of society and generations to come. This class of people are well liked and highly respected individuals that you may not compare them with some rascals and truants that you may find in other parties. I often wonder why the APC is a party filled with ‘strange bed fellows’, if you check the composition of the APC you would discover that it is a party filled predominantly of desperate and disgruntled politicians from the PDP and other parties.

    As a young boy my dad often warned me not to have any form of dealings with a desperate individual and that by so doing I would have my fingers burnt and regret it afterwards. As he would say “a desperate man can kill”, this frightening words have never left my mind since I was a boy. A lot of young people do not understand what dangers these desperate men you currently have in the APC portends to the security, peace and unity of Nigeria as a country that’s why I call on the decent few I have earlier described that are still within their rank and file, and also young boys and girls who never knew the antecedents of these desperate characters to please ‘shine your eyes’. Pastor Tunde Bakare even said it better “I trust Buhari but I don’t trust the environment that he is in”. Get this right Buhari is not a demon, nor is he demented but matter of fact is that as the saying goes “The evil that men do lives with them”.
    Buhari’s and his many sins
    1. Human rights: Because of Buhari and Babaginda, Fela Anikulapo Kuti composed several songs like ‘Overtake don overtake overtake’, ‘Animal in human skin’, ‘Animal can’t dash us human rights’. Fela may have been a ‘prophet’ of his time. I agree with him though in some of his words, if you have abused the rights of others you can’t turn around now and pretend to ‘dash’ us human rights under the pretence of Change. A leopard cannot change its spots. Buhari ceased power in 1983 and systematically abused Nigerians of their rights of justice and fair hearing. Politicians were accused of bogus crimes of corruption and tried under kangaroo courts, while there may have been a few who were corrupt, the innocent were not spared. They were given heavy sentencing some as much as 323 years. The trauma such people as Ambrose Ali faced in prison was what killed him afterwards. Like Ahmadu Bello, Ambrose Ali after massively developing Bendel state had to his credit only one small bungalow in his home town.
    2. Decree 4 and Decree 2: He was infamous for his constant harassment of the Press and Civil rights groups as a means of concealing the truth from ordinary Nigerians. At will he threw people into jail without any form of charge and such journalist as Nduka Irabor would tell you of their experiences. Some were tortured and are still traumatised till today, some even lost their lives in the process.
    3. Ghana must go: As a child growing up our economy was booming and as such we had a lot of foreigners living around us. We had Asians especially Indians and Pakistanis, Eastern Europeans and of course Africans all running from economic hardships in their countries. Some were professionals and experts in their fields and we also had artisans and others who did menial labour, we had some Africans who were professionals but most were involved in menial work. Interestingly of all these sets of people that were in Nigeria Buhari singled out Ghanians and sent them packing without any form of compensation and compassion. If you must note during the civil war a lot of Nigerians ran to Ghana to take cover even Nnamdi Azikiwe schooled in Ghana. Some of these Nigerians that escaped the civil war married their Ghanian girl friends and boy friends and returned to Nigeria after the war was over. To be sent packing in such a manner was indeed callous, and painfully some were forced to leave with just only a bag irrespective of the wealth or properties that they had accumulated from decent hard work. So young people as you go out to the shops to buy that ‘Ghana must go’ bag without knowing truly why they call those bags with such a name, now you know.
    4. Economic policies: I don’t need again to explain to you that Buhari is bereft of ideas when it comes to economic issues and the handling of the economy. Start with the reprinting of the naira when he ceased power. As a boy we were jubilant that we were seeing the new face of the naira, what we didn’t understand then was the economic impact and the implications. His excuse for doing so was that corrupt politicians who had stolen funds hidden under their beds may not be able to exchange their cash for the new currency. The impact of this together with his import license policy helped to devalue the naira and rubbish it’s exchange power. Before he ceased power the naira had a strong exchange value against major currencies for decades the naira had been exchanging for £1.00/N2.00 and $1.00/0.60 kobo. For the first time ever it was during Buhari’s regime that the naira started to depreciate in value. It’s laughable when now he is the same person shouting that naira is exchanging at $1.00/N220.00. Even with this all is not lost as the Chinese and Japanese constantly and intentionally devalue their currency as a means to curbing dumping of products and hence boosting local production. Now the desperate politicians are encouraging him to make promises like building four refineries, free education, free lunch, monthly stipends and allowances for jobless youths and so on without proper economic planning and drafting.
    5. Irresponsible utterances: His irresponsible utterances especially with disregard to its security implications have cost some Nigerians their lives and properties. He had said “The baboons and monkeys would be soaked in their blood” who are these baboons and monkeys? His utterances during and after the elections of 2011 were not helpful either. How do you place your self interest above the lives of the innocent and even the nation? Al Gore knew he won the elections but he allowed the interest of America to over shadow his personal interest. Even my dearly beloved Baba Obasanjo allowed the general interest of Nigeria to subdue his personal interest and agenda of running for office as President for a third term. To me that’s being a true statesman.
    6. Irresponsible actions and inactions: When people were being killed in 2011 under the guise of defending their votes as encouraged by Buhari. He did not come out to make an immediate statement or plea for these miscreants to stop forthwith.
    7. The costs of crating Umaru Dikko: Before he parcelled Umaru Dikko in a crate Nigerians had easy access into the United Kingdom (UK) and USA. With a return ticket costing only N500 and just your passport you can travel into these countries without a visa, but his brute approach cost us dearly, the UK came down heavily on Nigerians and withdrew the privileges of travelling under a common wealth of nations. They went further and started denying citizenship to Nigerians born in the UK.
    8. Total disregard to women: Initially when contacted on his opinion of the office of the first lady, he had said that he would scrap this office as it had no meaning nor place in his administration. However, having faced a lot of backlash and criticism from Nigerians and international organisations he is forced to go against his will of incorporating women in his government should he win. Now you may find a repackaged Aisha Buhari frying akara (bean cake) in Abuja. Even if APC do not agree with it, GEJ has remained the only government in Nigeria that has worked for the cause of fully incorporating and representing women in government.
    9. Islamic agenda: His penchant for fighting the cause and fully supporting sharia is not hidden to many. As such the christian north are wary of supporting him. The fear generally in the minds of people is that this unrepentant supporter of sharia may well be the trump card or joker for Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) or maybe ISIS currently on a jihaddist campaign, if you would recall boko haram that pledged allegiance to ISIS had nominated Buhari as it’s spokesman.
    Please truth be told, Nigerians be wary of desperate politicians who are serving their own interest, again I repeat Buhari is a good man and his intentions may have been good but his sins are living with him. The environment that he currently finds himself is one of suspicion and not to be trusted as Chinua Achebe describes it ‘Things fall apart and the center cannot hold’ that is what the APC stands for.

    Richard Omoko is a political analyst and economic watcher based in Nigeria.

    The many sins of Buhari.doc  ·  Print

    • progress

      Vermoose!

      • funke ade

        I don’t talk much so what I can tell you is that your APC had lost the election for real

    • Moe

      A well written but time consuming, highly deceptive, and insincere cacophony of ‘half truths’ and ‘outright right lies’.