September inflation rate drops to 11.3 per cent

Sanusi Lamido

The statistics Bureau said  urban inflation rate is higher than that in rural areas.



The composite Consumer Price Index, CPI, which measures inflation rate in the economy, dropped to 11.3 per cent year-on-year in September, compared with the 11.7 per cent recorded the preceding month.

However, on a monthly basis, the CPI was higher by 1.01 per cent when compared with the rate last August.

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS’, official report on the latest CPI, on Tuesday, attributed the relative moderation in the headline index on a year-on-year basis largely to the relative slower rise in the “Core” index, which increased to 13.1 per cent year-on-year from 14.7 per cent in August.

According to the Bureau, the moderation in the Core index was partially as a result of base effects, as the sharp rise in the index exhibited in September 2011 implies that the relative rise in the month under review may be muted.

A further decomposition of the CPI on urban and rural basis showed that the urban inflation rate was about 14.2 per cent year-on-year, while the rural index indicated a 9.1 per cent year-on-year increase.

Analysing the trend further, the agency reported that the urban ‘All Items’ index increased by 1.2 per cent month-on-month, while the corresponding rural index increased by 0.89 per cent, when compared with the rate of increase in August 2012.

The Bureau said further that the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12-month period ending in September 2012 over the average CPI for the previous 12-month period was 11.9 percent.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year average percentage change, for Urban and Rural indices, was 12.9 per cent and 11.1 per cent respectively”, the report added.

On the Composite Food Index, the Bureau noted that the index “increased year-on-year by 10.2 per cent to 10.5 points, about 0.3 percentage points higher than 9.9 percent recorded in August, compared to the 1.1 per cent a month-on-month increase in the preceding month.

“The rise in the Food Index was mainly due to higher food prices in various categories, led by potatoes, yams and other tubers, fruits, bread and cereals as well as other foods.

“The higher food prices partially reflect the negative impact of the floods on the production of certain crops as well as movement of food products to markets across the country.

“However as harvesting of crops began in late July and early August, this impact on food prices has not been as severe as envisaged,” the NBS said.

It was also reported that the “All items less Farm Produce” index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products rose by 13.1 per cent year-on-year to 139.7 points, 1.6 per cent points lower form the 14.7 percent recorded in August.

“The relative moderation in the core index was partially as a result of base effects as the Core index exhibited a sharp rise in September 2011, increasing by 1.9 percent from August 2011,” the Bureau said.

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