2015 Election: Presidential, National Assembly results from Nigeria’s South South inflated – Report

Voters
Voters

The results of the 2015 Nigeria’s Presidential and National Assembly elections from the South-South region of the country were probably inflated by officials of Independent National Electoral Commission, a report released by a civil society coalition, Transition Monitoring Group, TMG, says.

TMG is Nigeria’s foremost election observation group.

The report titled “TMG Quick Count Report of the 2015 Presidential Election” was launched in Abuja on Friday.

TMG said it deployed approximately 4,000 citizen observers to carry out representative observation of polling units across the 774 Local Government Areas.

Although the report showed that estimates by TMG’s Quick Count correlated with official results finally released by INEC, the group however said the number of accredited voters was inflated during the collation exercise, suggesting a way of creating room for inflated results.

“In verifying the official results of the 2015 presidential election, the Quick Count estimates strongly suggested that turnout was inflated during the collation process in the South-South geopolitical zone,” the report said.

“Quick Count estimates for the South-South geopolitical zone was 40.6% (+/-4.5%) while the official result the zone was as released at 55.9%. Thus official turnout was likely inflated during the collation exercise by at least 10.8%. The official results of the other five geopolitical zones consistent with TMG’s Quick Count estimates.”

Former President Goodluck Jonathan of Peoples Democratic Party recorded sweeping victory in the South-South, his base, while President Muhammadu Buhari who was the candidate of All Progressives Congress swept poll across in the North West, his zone.

But TMG said its estimates in the North West and the other zones, apart from the South-South, ran consistent with INEC’s official release.

TMG said its observers reported on the poll, accreditation, voting, counting processes and collected voting results at the polling units.

“At the heart of the Quick Count is a sophisticated database and text messaging communication systems by highly trained data managers and data clerks to ensure that complete and accurate data is received from all observers and analysed … to form highly accurate estimates of the overall poll conduct of the election, including party vote counts and voter turnout,” TMG’s Program Manager, Lazarus Apir, explained.

The report said the deployment party agents by the APC to the polling units in South-South and South-East was and 85% and 80% respectively. But in the two regions, PDP deployed agents to 93% of the polling units.

The report showed that the APC perhaps deliberately de-emphasize focus on the South-South and South-East, two strongholds of PDP, concentrating on other zones where it deployed more agents to polling units than PDP did.

Quick Count reported the presence of security personnel in 88% of the polling units. But this was poor when compared with 94% security presence across all polling units during the 2011 elections, TMG said.

By 11:30am of March 28, 2015, only 68% of the polling units had opened for accreditation exercise and in 96% of the polling units no voter was accredited without permanent voter’s card.

What counted as upside of Nigeria’s 2015 election widely acclaimed as example for Africa, according to the Quick Count report, was that observers reported there were no incidents of harassment against voters, poll officials, party agents and observers during voting in 96% of the polling units.

At 95% and 91%, respectively, of the polling units, APC and PDP agents signed the result sheets (INEC Form EC8A).

In 91% of the polling units, results were publicly pasted. By regional breakdown, results were publicly pasted in the North West, 93%; North East, 96%; North Central, 92%; South West, 88%; South East, 90%; and South South, 89%.

To improve Nigeria’s electoral process, TMG recommended that political parties and candidates restrict their campaigns to Nigeria’s development issues.


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  • Abdul

    It is very obvious that SS voting result was inflated.

    • T-Rex

      While Kano and war-torn Borno states results weren’t inflated?

    • IZON Redeemer

      The Ijaw Nation will never vote for the Fulanis ati Yorubas stealing the Nation blind and padding the budget in APC–Besides -what is it that is in Buhari that will make humans struggle to align themselves with the Apes in APC–in Nigeria? Oya (told9 us—for heaven sake! Is it the fuel that is available at Gas stations in Nigeria or the light that we are enjoying at night? What is it that one should be proud of in the average Fulani or Yoruba man ruling us in APC—-tribalism again—nay it is the truth–animals

  • Joe igbokwe

    WE KNEW IT ALREADY . IT IS NOT NEW . IF IT WAS POSSIBLE THEY WOULD HAVE INFLATED ENOUGH TO COUNTER ALL THE RESULTS FROM NORTH EAST, NORTH WEST , NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST. I FELT SORRY FOR THEM. THEY COOKED AND COOKED FIGURES UNTIL THEY GET TIRED. I SEE NIGERIA AS LAWLESS COUNTRY AND UNLESS WE PUNISH OFFENDERS TO SEND THE SIGNAL TO OTHERS WE MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS BARBERS CHAIR SYNDROME OF MOVEMENT WITHOUT MOTION.

    • IZON Redeemer

      I thought Joe Igbokwe, had some brains left in his Ibo skull–now I know better——–At least there are Ibos and there are Igbos in Nigeria—-Again In Kano alone, the number of registered voters were 1.9m. Sadly, all of them 1.9 million under-aged electorates voted for the Apes in APC ati Buhari–Not one of them reported sick—-Is that possible in an election?———–And here we are with an Ibo man from the South East-who is supposed to know better–streching himself to the limit to appease his internal Masters of old——Shamelessly rearing his old regional head in public to shame his ethnic group-serving the Yorubas in Portuguese cloned Lagos–How many 5 year old kids did u see vote in the South-south as we saw them do in all the 5 K states in the Fulani North? At least we toddlers on CNN being cleared by INEC to vote—-after Buhari and his team smuggled them from Niger Republic ati Chad—inot the Fulani controlled North—-Happily for us, we did not organize the assassination of the REC in Kano–There have been 3 by-elections in the SS–how many of them did the Apes in APC win—-from Akwa Ibom–Bayelsa ati Rivers——–?animals

  • IZON Redeemer

    I thought Joe Igbokwe, had some brains left in his Ibo skull–now I know better——–At least there are Ibos and there are Igbos in Nigeria—-Again In Kano alone, the number of registered voters were 1.9m. Sadly, all of them 1.9 million under-aged electorates voted for the Apes in APC ati Buhari–Not one of them reported sick—-Is that possible in an election?———–And here we are with an Ibo man from the South East-who is supposed to know better–streching himself to the limit to appease his internal Masters of old——Shamelessly rearing his old regional head in public to shame his ethnic group-serving the Yorubas in Portuguese cloned Lagos–How many 5 year old kids did u see vote in the South-south as we saw them do in all the 5 K states in the Fulani North? At least we toddlers on CNN being cleared by INEC to vote—-after Buhari and his team smuggled them from Niger Republic ati Chad—inot the Fulani controlled North—-Happily for us, we did not organize the assassination of the REC in Kano–There have been 3 by-elections in the SS–how many of them did the Apes in APC win—-from Akwa Ibom–Bayelsa ati Rivers–….——?animals

    • musa aliyu

      You liar! 5.4 million people registered in Kano. Only 2 million voted and your pdpigs got 100,000 , through rigging, of course. Go round Kano and ask choice between jonadumb and Saint Buhari.

  • Burning Spear

    INEC Manipulating PVCs to Favour Buhari, – Balarabe Musa.

    A political interest organization, Credible Alternative Alliance (CAA) led by former Kaduna state Governor, Alhaji Abdulkadir Balarabe Musa has alleged that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is tilting the distribution of Permanent Voters Card (PVC) to favour areas believed to be strongholds of All Progressives Congress’ candidate, General Muhammed Buhari.

    The group presented a statistical analysis of the distribution of PVCs which showed the number of registered voters yet to collect their PVCs in various zones.

    According to CAA, South-East has (3,287, 530) , South West (7,411,205), South-South (3,844,370) , North-East (2,429,763), North West (4,835,556), North Central (3,907,849) and FCT(421,559).

    On the distribution of PVCs, CAA said it has observed “a criminal gross disparity of voter spread designed to tilt the election to a pre-determined outcome.

    The group insists that all the 68.8 million registered voters must be given unfettered access to freely collect their PVCs and cast their vote as provided for in the constitution, adding that it would be forced to take INEC to court if that condition was not met.

    “Let us call a spade, a spade. There are two main contenders for the Presidency in this election. The analyzed data above depicts a worrying trend. Voters in the zones that tend to support President Goodluck Jonathan are massively disenfranchised by the application of the so-called PVCs debacle, 40% to 50% of voters in the these regions who are lawfully and duly registered to vote will be denied their right to vote by INEC.

    “That is nearly half of the support base of the President, simply nullified by administrative (failure) prior to the election. By comparison, the zones that tend to support Buhari are handed a massive voter advantage, nearly 80% of his support base will be allowed to cast their votes by INEC.

    In an election, which many say will be won or lost by a slim margin, to now disenfranchise 26million voters through a questionable and unlawful rule by INEC is not acceptable by any measure.

  • ayobamiba

    Any Election monitoring report from any group that failed to record and highlight Attahiru jegas highly crafted fraud and satanic manipulations with PVC distribution and deployment of card reader which technically disenfranchised and prevented more than 20 million willing and eligible voters from south south,south east,Lagos,plateau,southern Kaduna,Benue,taraba,gombe ,kogi ,Ogun etc from casting their votes for good luck Jonathan and PDP and thereby gave buhari and APC undeserved victory with a miserable 15 million votes out of 68 million registered voters and 170 million Nigerians ,the least number since the advent of democracy in 1999 ,such a report is a continuation of the fraud called 2015 elections. I and millions of willing and eligible registered voters were forcefully prevented from casting our votes while nanets ,children ,underaged and boko haram were allowed to vote elsewhere. What a pity ,what a pity what a pity.I blame Jonathan for allowing jega the space to betray Nigeria into the hands of the most sophisticated axis of evil called APC.By this report that was blank on the visible wicked manipulations of inec even with card reader that refused to work in the whole of south south and south east on march 28 while inec officials refused to resort to manual accreditation until around 1pm when willing voters who escaped PVC distribution manipulations and came with enthusiasm had gone home disappointed.this very TMG report is another premeditated conspiracy to cover jegas evil fraud against Jonathan and PDP. Shame to this hypocrites and fraudulent TMG may Gods punishment be upon them for joining forces with evil manipulators to punish Nigerians with a failed government.

    • musa aliyu

      Maybe you’re living in Mars, after the kidnapping and armed robbery you commited to source money for the trip. How can the whole people in the South East and South South be up to 20 million. You marry only one wife, two or four children @most. I marry four wives with fourty or fifty children.

      • ayobamiba

        Musa aliyu,I don’t like engaging an almajiri imbecile in a debate except on a topic like cow /goats herding,almajiri challenge, boko haram menace or desertification. These are the areas or spheres where you have outstanding competence . discussions on TMG report on elections shall be too difficult for Carmel’s brain to comprehend and make an informed contributions. Please take a look at my truthful assertions…..
        ‘Any Election monitoring report from any group that failed to record and highlight Attahiru jegas highly crafted fraud and satanic manipulations with PVC distribution and deployment of card reader, which technically disenfranchised and prevented more than 20 million willing and eligible voters from south south,south east,Lagos,plateau,southern Kaduna,Benue,taraba,gombe ,kogi ,Ogun etc from casting their votes for good luck Jonathan and PDP and thereby gave buhari and APC undeserved victory with a miserable 15 million votes out of 68 million registered voters and 170 million Nigerians ….. ‘ Then compare it with your almajiri dance. ‘ How can the whole people in the South East and South South be up to 20 million. You marry only one wife, two or four children @most. I marry four wives with fourty or fifty children’………
        Did you see reasons why national examination bodies must reduce your zones cut off marks to 10 and south east /south south 140 for you to square up with humans .please don’t let me waste my precious time arguing with dumb ,blind and deaf , it is an exercise in vain. Please mind your infant wives ,take good care of their stinking VVF and continue to breed imbeciles like English rats for that is your contributions to our national growth and prosperity. 45 children for one bewitched almajiri dunce,that’s why your region is the most poverty and diseases infested dungeon in the whole earth.abeg park well make I see complete human beings, don’t waste my data on cloned cows with camels brain masquerading as APC supporters.

  • Ekwekwe

    Meanwhile, results for President Mumu-hadu Bokohari in Northeast and Northwest were — deflated! Ewu Gambia!

    • Martino

      Thanks. Pls add Child voters

  • Analyst

    Bullshit…maybe you guy mean to say North East.

  • musa aliyu

    So you too need glasses to read the Rivers results and understand they “were written under special circumstances “?

  • Omooba Adekunle Orafidiya

    What about the results from Kano, Jigawa, Katsina and Sokoto? And the votes from Malian, Chadian and Nigerien nationals? Plus the underage votes across the length and breadth of the North? TMG should go to hell.

    • musa aliyu

      You don’t know the north. No dog in those places voted for pdpigs. Even the results got by pdpigs were rigged , their own usual way

      • Omooba Adekunle Orafidiya

        Those who voted for senile, illiterate certificate forger and perjurer MuhamMADu (alias Customs and Exercise, French Franc, Deutch Mark and President Michelle of Western Germany) Buhari are all dogs, then.

  • ed

    14 local government were under Boko Haram before and at the election time according to President Buhari.
    The 14 local government recorded over 90% voters participation. Almost all voted for Buhari.
    Can somebody please explain how and why Boko Haram activities came to a stop @ the Election Day.

    • Iskacountryman

      because they wanted a muslim president…

      • Garba

        No, because Dasuki & Jonathan postphoned the election.

        • Iskacountryman

          is that all?

  • Peter_Edo

    hahahahaha the truth has come out from another source, this was already discerned when we studied the result patterns… most of the states except SS and SE followed a usual voter apathy pattern, even Kano with its millions of votes , with +/-5 margin around 40% e,calculating from PVCs issued, voters accredited to how many people voted. ,the SS and SE states had ridiculously high voter turnout… some above 80%…. wettin self, na we like vote pass? Delta and Rivers had 84% and 87% respectively…

  • evidence

    Story. Kano that was under boko haram siege recorded almost 2 million votes, even Kwankwaso in not so many words, attributed it to underage almajiris. Even J‎igawa and Borno recorded over 1 million votes, all of these states had no single void vote or card reader issues and it is SS and SE that inflated figures? Jokers. ‎

  • North/West Allies

    Yes, same in Kano, Kaduna and Katsina so what are you gonna do about it???????????????? Get lost